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Alkermes (ALKS) Up 2.5% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Alkermes PLC (ALKS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.5% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Alkermes Q1 Loss Wider than Expected, Sales Miss

Alkermes reported loss of $0.31 per share (including the impact of share-based compensation expense) in the first quarter of 2017, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.24. In fact, the reported loss was also wider than the year-ago loss of $0.28.

Alkermes reported revenues of $191.8 million in the first quarter of 2017, up 22.3% year over year. Revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $193 million.

Vivitrol & Aristada in Focus

Manufacturing and royalty revenues increased 8% year over year to $114.7 million. Also, the same from Risperdal Consta, Invega Sustenna/Xeplion and Invega Trinza/Trevicta were up 9.7% to $60 million. In fact, manufacturing and royalty revenues from Ampyra/Fampyra, rose 3.5% to $29.2 million, in the quarter.

The company earned royalty revenues of $12.3 million on Bydureon, up 17.1%.

Vivitrol sales surged 33.4% year over year to $58.5 million.
Aristada sales came in at $18 million, up compared with $5.5 million in the first quarter of 2016.

2017 Outlook

The company reiterated guidance for 2017. Alkermes expects total revenue to be in the range of $870–$920 million, 17–23% increase from 2016, driven by continuing growth of Vivitrol and Aristada. Additionally, it anticipates Vivitrol’s net sales in the range of $280–$300 million.

For 2017, the earnings per share are estimated to be in the range of a loss of $0.10 to earnings of $0.10.

Pipeline Update

Alkermes plans to submit a new drug application (NDA) for ALKS 5461 in major depressive disorder. With the pivotal program completed, the company has requested for a pre-NDA meeting which is expected to occur in late June or early July this year. The company expects to submit the NDA later in 2017.

Moving ahead, it plans to complete the pivotal efficacy study of ALKS 3831 in schizophrenia and announce top-line results in mid-2017. The company expects to complete the required elements for registration of ALKS 8700 in multiple sclerosis before the end of 2017 and remains on track to submit the NDA in 2018.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

Alkermes PLC Price and Consensus

 

VGM Scores

At this time, the stock has a subpar Growth Score of 'D', however its Momentum is doing a bit better with a 'B'. The stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is solely suitable for momentum investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are expecting a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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