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Should JPM Be in Your Portfolio After Q2 Beat & NII Guidance Raise?
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Key Takeaways
JPMorgan topped Q2 estimates on strong markets revenues, loan growth and lower provisions.
NII rose 2% to $23.21B; 2025 forecast lifted to $95.5B amid solid loan demand and higher yields.
JPMorgan plans to open 500 more branches by 2027 to deepen customer relationships and cross-selling.
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) announced second-quarter 2025 results on July 15, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly top and bottom-line numbers easily outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Better-than-expected performance of capital markets businesses, higher net interest income (NII), solid growth in credit card and wholesale loans and lower provisions supported JPM’s quarterly earnings.
Specifically, markets revenues jumped 15% to $8.9 billion, well above its mid-to-high single-digit growth forecast. Investment banking (IB) fees (in the Commercial & Investment Bank or CIB segment) rose 7% to $2.51 billion, defying expectations of a mid-teens decline. Further, NII grew 2% to $23.21 billion, aided by solid loan growth. Management raised its full-year NII forecast to $95.5 billion from $94.5 billion, driven by robust first-half performance and higher yields.
Similar to JPMorgan, the quarterly performance of its close peers – Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) – was impressive. Both surpassed the consensus estimate for earnings and sales on the back of higher NII. While Bank of America witnessed an improvement in trading numbers, its IB business performance was weak. On the other hand, similar to JPMorgan, Citigroup recorded a rise in IB fees and markets revenues in the second quarter.
Since the announcement of the results, shares of JPM have gained 3.4% and are currently trading near its all-time high of $299.59. This reflects investors' optimism for the stock. However, for long-term investors, a single quarter’s performance holds limited significance. What truly matters are the company’s underlying fundamentals. Let’s take a closer look at JPMorgan’s key strengths and weaknesses to assess how to approach the stock in the post-earnings landscape.
JPMorgan’s NII: Contingent on Fed’s Rate Path
Given the current tariff-related uncertainty, market participants are predicting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. As such, JPMorgan’s NII is likely to face some headwind on an exit rate going into next year as its balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive.
The company’s NII witnessed a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 10.1%, mainly driven by the high-interest rate regime since 2022 and the acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023. The trend continued in the first half of 2025, driven by solid loan and deposit growth and higher revolving balances in Card Services.
With management raising 2025 NII guidance to $95.5 billion, it suggests an increase of more than 3% from the 2024 level. As the Fed is less likely to lower rates substantially, and with decent loan demand, JPMorgan’s NII is expected to keep growing in the near term.
With 4,994 branches as of June 30, 2025, more than any other U.S. bank and a presence in all 48 contiguous states, JPM continues to invest in brick-and-mortar to strengthen its competitive edge in relationship banking, despite the digital shift. In May, the company added 14 new Financial Centers in affluent markets. It now has 16 such centers, aiming to double by 2026.
In 2024, JPMorgan opened nearly 150 branches and plans to add 500 more by 2027 to deepen relationships and boost cross-selling across mortgages, loans, investments and credit cards.
JPMorgan isn’t alone in branch expansion. Bank of America is growing its 3,664-center network, with 40 new openings last year and 110 more by 2027, despite most interactions being digital.
Additionally, JPMorgan has expanded through strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank, partnerships with Cleareye.ai and Aumni, and the 2023 purchase of First Republic Bank. These moves boosted profits and supported its strategy to diversify revenues and grow digital and fee-based offerings.
Revival of Capital Markets to Support JPM in the Long Run
JPMorgan’s capital markets business, which includes investment banking or IB and markets, witnessed a robust comeback last year, with IB fees (in the CIB segment) increasing 36% year over year. Likewise, as trading volume and market volatility remained high in 2024, markets revenues benefited and grew 7%.
In the couple of years before that, global deal-making came to a grinding halt, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, fears of economic slowdown and high inflation numbers, something JPMorgan wasn’t immune to. However, it continued to rank #1 for global IB fees.
This year has had its share of hiccups. It began on an optimistic note, although the market sentiment cooled after Trump’s tariff policies launched on 'Liberation Day'. Deal-making activity has picked up since then, with the uptrend in IB fees continuing through the first six months of 2025 and the company garnering a wallet share of 8.9%. Moreover, markets revenues grew on the back of tariff-related uncertainty and massive volatility.
The healthy IB pipeline, an active M&A market and JPMorgan’s leadership position in the IB business ensure even stronger growth once the macro situation changes.
JPMorgan’s Fortress Balance Sheet and Solid Liquidity
As of June 30, 2025, JPM had a total debt of $485.1 billion (the majority of this is long-term in nature). The company's cash and due from banks and deposits with banks were $420.3 billion on the same date. The company maintains long-term issuer ratings A-/AA-/A1 ratings from Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively.
Hence, JPM continues to reward shareholders handsomely. It cleared this year’s stress test impressively and announced plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share. It also authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion (became effective from July 1, 2025).
In March 2025, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 12% to $1.40 per share, while in September 2024, it announced a 9% hike in the quarterly dividend to $1.25 per share. In the last five years, it hiked dividends five times, with an annualized growth rate of 7.99%.
JPM Dividend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Similar to JPM, Bank of America and Citigroup have also cleared the 2025 stress test. Following this, Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 8% to 28 cents per share and authorized a new $40 billion share repurchase program, effective Aug. 1, 2025. Meanwhile, Citigroup also announced a dividend hike of 7% to 60 cents per share. It is continuing with the previously announced buyback plan, which had $16.3 billion worth of authorization remaining as of June 30, 2025.
JPMorgan’s Asset Quality Weakens
JPMorgan’s asset quality has been deteriorating. While the company recorded negative provisions in 2021, a substantial rise in provisions was recorded in the years after that because of the worsening macroeconomic outlook. The metric surged 169% in 2022, 45.9% in 2023 and 14.9% in 2024. Similarly, net charge-offs (NCOs) grew 117.6% in 2023 and 39.1% in 2024.
As interest rates are less likely to come down substantially in the near term, it is expected to hurt the borrowers’ credit profile. As it remains vigilant about the effects of continuous high rates, the impact of tariffs on inflation and quantitative tightening on its loan portfolio, its asset quality is expected to remain subdued in the near term.
The company expects card NCO rates to be approximately 3.6% this year. For 2026, the metric is expected to rise year over year and be in the range of 3.6-3.9%.
JPMorgan’s Price Performance & Valuation Analysis
This year, shares of JPMorgan have soared 24.6% compared with an 8.2% rise for the S&P 500 Index. Meanwhile, Bank of America and Citigroup have gained 10.2% and 36.4%, respectively, in the same time frame.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, the stock appears expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 15.13X. This is above the industry’s 14.90X, reflecting a stretched valuation.
P/E F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Also, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Bank of America and Citigroup. At present, Bank of America has a forward 12-month P/E of 12.07X, and Citigroup is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 10.93X.
How to Approach JPMorgan Stock Post Q2-Earnings?
Earnings estimates for JPMorgan for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past week. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish analyst sentiments for the stock.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2025 earnings implies a 2.8% fall year over year owing to macro headwinds and higher non-interest expenses. Management anticipates non-interest expenses to be $95.5 billion this year, up from $91.1 billion in 2024. On the other hand, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggests 5.4% growth.
Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With a raised full-year NII forecast and continued expansion through branch openings and strategic expansion plans, JPMorgan is well-positioned to grow. Its robust capital markets business, dominant IB share and strong dividend and buyback programs further enhance shareholder value. While asset quality is weakening and costs are rising, the company’s solid fundamentals, leadership in key segments and investor confidence justify its premium valuation and support the case for owning the stock.
Image: Bigstock
Should JPM Be in Your Portfolio After Q2 Beat & NII Guidance Raise?
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) announced second-quarter 2025 results on July 15, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly top and bottom-line numbers easily outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Better-than-expected performance of capital markets businesses, higher net interest income (NII), solid growth in credit card and wholesale loans and lower provisions supported JPM’s quarterly earnings.
Specifically, markets revenues jumped 15% to $8.9 billion, well above its mid-to-high single-digit growth forecast. Investment banking (IB) fees (in the Commercial & Investment Bank or CIB segment) rose 7% to $2.51 billion, defying expectations of a mid-teens decline. Further, NII grew 2% to $23.21 billion, aided by solid loan growth. Management raised its full-year NII forecast to $95.5 billion from $94.5 billion, driven by robust first-half performance and higher yields.
Similar to JPMorgan, the quarterly performance of its close peers – Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) – was impressive. Both surpassed the consensus estimate for earnings and sales on the back of higher NII. While Bank of America witnessed an improvement in trading numbers, its IB business performance was weak. On the other hand, similar to JPMorgan, Citigroup recorded a rise in IB fees and markets revenues in the second quarter.
Since the announcement of the results, shares of JPM have gained 3.4% and are currently trading near its all-time high of $299.59. This reflects investors' optimism for the stock. However, for long-term investors, a single quarter’s performance holds limited significance. What truly matters are the company’s underlying fundamentals. Let’s take a closer look at JPMorgan’s key strengths and weaknesses to assess how to approach the stock in the post-earnings landscape.
JPMorgan’s NII: Contingent on Fed’s Rate Path
Given the current tariff-related uncertainty, market participants are predicting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. As such, JPMorgan’s NII is likely to face some headwind on an exit rate going into next year as its balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive.
The company’s NII witnessed a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 10.1%, mainly driven by the high-interest rate regime since 2022 and the acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023. The trend continued in the first half of 2025, driven by solid loan and deposit growth and higher revolving balances in Card Services.
With management raising 2025 NII guidance to $95.5 billion, it suggests an increase of more than 3% from the 2024 level. As the Fed is less likely to lower rates substantially, and with decent loan demand, JPMorgan’s NII is expected to keep growing in the near term.
JPMorgan’s Branch Openings & Opportunistic Acquisitions
With 4,994 branches as of June 30, 2025, more than any other U.S. bank and a presence in all 48 contiguous states, JPM continues to invest in brick-and-mortar to strengthen its competitive edge in relationship banking, despite the digital shift. In May, the company added 14 new Financial Centers in affluent markets. It now has 16 such centers, aiming to double by 2026.
In 2024, JPMorgan opened nearly 150 branches and plans to add 500 more by 2027 to deepen relationships and boost cross-selling across mortgages, loans, investments and credit cards.
JPMorgan isn’t alone in branch expansion. Bank of America is growing its 3,664-center network, with 40 new openings last year and 110 more by 2027, despite most interactions being digital.
Additionally, JPMorgan has expanded through strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank, partnerships with Cleareye.ai and Aumni, and the 2023 purchase of First Republic Bank. These moves boosted profits and supported its strategy to diversify revenues and grow digital and fee-based offerings.
Revival of Capital Markets to Support JPM in the Long Run
JPMorgan’s capital markets business, which includes investment banking or IB and markets, witnessed a robust comeback last year, with IB fees (in the CIB segment) increasing 36% year over year. Likewise, as trading volume and market volatility remained high in 2024, markets revenues benefited and grew 7%.
In the couple of years before that, global deal-making came to a grinding halt, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, fears of economic slowdown and high inflation numbers, something JPMorgan wasn’t immune to. However, it continued to rank #1 for global IB fees.
This year has had its share of hiccups. It began on an optimistic note, although the market sentiment cooled after Trump’s tariff policies launched on 'Liberation Day'. Deal-making activity has picked up since then, with the uptrend in IB fees continuing through the first six months of 2025 and the company garnering a wallet share of 8.9%. Moreover, markets revenues grew on the back of tariff-related uncertainty and massive volatility.
The healthy IB pipeline, an active M&A market and JPMorgan’s leadership position in the IB business ensure even stronger growth once the macro situation changes.
JPMorgan’s Fortress Balance Sheet and Solid Liquidity
As of June 30, 2025, JPM had a total debt of $485.1 billion (the majority of this is long-term in nature). The company's cash and due from banks and deposits with banks were $420.3 billion on the same date. The company maintains long-term issuer ratings A-/AA-/A1 ratings from Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively.
Hence, JPM continues to reward shareholders handsomely. It cleared this year’s stress test impressively and announced plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share. It also authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion (became effective from July 1, 2025).
In March 2025, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 12% to $1.40 per share, while in September 2024, it announced a 9% hike in the quarterly dividend to $1.25 per share. In the last five years, it hiked dividends five times, with an annualized growth rate of 7.99%.
JPM Dividend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Similar to JPM, Bank of America and Citigroup have also cleared the 2025 stress test. Following this, Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 8% to 28 cents per share and authorized a new $40 billion share repurchase program, effective Aug. 1, 2025. Meanwhile, Citigroup also announced a dividend hike of 7% to 60 cents per share. It is continuing with the previously announced buyback plan, which had $16.3 billion worth of authorization remaining as of June 30, 2025.
JPMorgan’s Asset Quality Weakens
JPMorgan’s asset quality has been deteriorating. While the company recorded negative provisions in 2021, a substantial rise in provisions was recorded in the years after that because of the worsening macroeconomic outlook. The metric surged 169% in 2022, 45.9% in 2023 and 14.9% in 2024. Similarly, net charge-offs (NCOs) grew 117.6% in 2023 and 39.1% in 2024.
As interest rates are less likely to come down substantially in the near term, it is expected to hurt the borrowers’ credit profile. As it remains vigilant about the effects of continuous high rates, the impact of tariffs on inflation and quantitative tightening on its loan portfolio, its asset quality is expected to remain subdued in the near term.
The company expects card NCO rates to be approximately 3.6% this year. For 2026, the metric is expected to rise year over year and be in the range of 3.6-3.9%.
JPMorgan’s Price Performance & Valuation Analysis
This year, shares of JPMorgan have soared 24.6% compared with an 8.2% rise for the S&P 500 Index. Meanwhile, Bank of America and Citigroup have gained 10.2% and 36.4%, respectively, in the same time frame.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, the stock appears expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 15.13X. This is above the industry’s 14.90X, reflecting a stretched valuation.
P/E F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Also, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Bank of America and Citigroup. At present, Bank of America has a forward 12-month P/E of 12.07X, and Citigroup is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 10.93X.
How to Approach JPMorgan Stock Post Q2-Earnings?
Earnings estimates for JPMorgan for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past week. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish analyst sentiments for the stock.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2025 earnings implies a 2.8% fall year over year owing to macro headwinds and higher non-interest expenses. Management anticipates non-interest expenses to be $95.5 billion this year, up from $91.1 billion in 2024. On the other hand, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggests 5.4% growth.
Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With a raised full-year NII forecast and continued expansion through branch openings and strategic expansion plans, JPMorgan is well-positioned to grow. Its robust capital markets business, dominant IB share and strong dividend and buyback programs further enhance shareholder value. While asset quality is weakening and costs are rising, the company’s solid fundamentals, leadership in key segments and investor confidence justify its premium valuation and support the case for owning the stock.
JPM currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.