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Vale to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
VALE is expected to report Q2 sales of $8.66B and EPS of $0.33, down 12.7% and 23%, respectively.
Lower iron ore sales and prices likely weighed on results, despite stronger nickel and copper volumes.
Production gains at S11D and Brucutu helped output, but cost pressures and weak pricing may hit margins.
Vale S.A. (VALE - Free Report) is expected to report a decline in its bottom and top lines when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $8.66 billion, indicating a 12.7% decrease from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 25% over the past 60 days to 33 cents per share. The figure indicates a 23% year-over-year decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VALE’s Earnings Surprise History
VALE's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 4.48%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q2 Performance
Vale recently provided its second-quarter production and sales update, which may show how it is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. Iron ore production was around 83.6 Mt, a 3.7% increase year over year, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu plant and a record output at the S11D mine. Pellet production was down 11.7% year over year to 7.85 Mt. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for iron ore production for the quarter was 83.4 Mt.
Iron ore fines sales were down 1.2% from the year-ago quarter to 67.7 Mt. Pellet sales were down 15.6% to around 7.48 Mt. Total iron ore sales were down 3.1% year over year to 77.3 Mt, as part of Vale’s product portfolio optimization strategy.
The average realized iron ore fines price was $85.1 per ton in the quarter, down 13.3% year over year. Realized prices for iron ore pellets declined 14.7% to $134.1 per ton.
Nickel sales were recorded at 41.4 kt, up 20.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The figure was higher than the consensus estimate of 38.4 kt. The average realized nickel price was $15,800 per ton, down 15.2% from the year-ago quarter. This was in line with the decrease in LME nickel reference prices.
Vale sold 89 kt of copper in the second quarter, which was 17% higher than the prior-year quarter's figure. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88.5 kt.
The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $8,985 per ton, down 2.4% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $8,921 per ton.
Overall, Vale’s revenues are likely to have benefited from higher copper and nickel sales volumes. However, this gain is likely to have been offset by lower iron ore sales volumes, along with weaker pricing for iron ore, copper and nickel. The company has been facing higher input costs, which are likely to have weighed on its margins. However, cost-control efforts are expected to have negated some of this impact.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for VALE
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is -9.09%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
In a year, shares of Vale have lost 8.1% compared with the industry’s 7.8% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks to Consider
Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS - Free Report) , slated to release second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 6, has an Earnings ESP of +3.09% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
The consensus mark for Pan American Silver’s revenues is $769.15 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 12%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAAS’ earnings for the second quarter is pegged at 39 cents per share. The estimate indicates a significant climb from earnings of 11 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. PAAS has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 36.7%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on July 30, has an Earnings ESP of +7.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agnico Eagle Mines’ revenues is $2.55 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 22.9%.
AEM’s earnings for the second quarter are pegged at $1.69 per share, indicating a year-over-year surge of 57.9%. Agnico Eagle Mines has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 12.3%.
CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW - Free Report) , slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on July 31, has an Earnings ESP of +4.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The consensus mark for CSW Industrials’ first-quarter revenues is $277 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 22.5%.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.74 per share. It indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.9%. CSW Group has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.8%.
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Vale to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Vale S.A. (VALE - Free Report) is expected to report a decline in its bottom and top lines when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $8.66 billion, indicating a 12.7% decrease from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 25% over the past 60 days to 33 cents per share. The figure indicates a 23% year-over-year decline.
VALE’s Earnings Surprise History
VALE's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 4.48%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q2 Performance
Vale recently provided its second-quarter production and sales update, which may show how it is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. Iron ore production was around 83.6 Mt, a 3.7% increase year over year, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu plant and a record output at the S11D mine. Pellet production was down 11.7% year over year to 7.85 Mt. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for iron ore production for the quarter was 83.4 Mt.
Iron ore fines sales were down 1.2% from the year-ago quarter to 67.7 Mt. Pellet sales were down 15.6% to around 7.48 Mt. Total iron ore sales were down 3.1% year over year to 77.3 Mt, as part of Vale’s product portfolio optimization strategy.
The average realized iron ore fines price was $85.1 per ton in the quarter, down 13.3% year over year. Realized prices for iron ore pellets declined 14.7% to $134.1 per ton.
Nickel sales were recorded at 41.4 kt, up 20.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The figure was higher than the consensus estimate of 38.4 kt. The average realized nickel price was $15,800 per ton, down 15.2% from the year-ago quarter. This was in line with the decrease in LME nickel reference prices.
Vale sold 89 kt of copper in the second quarter, which was 17% higher than the prior-year quarter's figure. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88.5 kt.
The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $8,985 per ton, down 2.4% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $8,921 per ton.
Overall, Vale’s revenues are likely to have benefited from higher copper and nickel sales volumes. However, this gain is likely to have been offset by lower iron ore sales volumes, along with weaker pricing for iron ore, copper and nickel. The company has been facing higher input costs, which are likely to have weighed on its margins. However, cost-control efforts are expected to have negated some of this impact.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for VALE
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is -9.09%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Vale currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
VALE Stock’s Price Performance
In a year, shares of Vale have lost 8.1% compared with the industry’s 7.8% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks to Consider
Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS - Free Report) , slated to release second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 6, has an Earnings ESP of +3.09% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
The consensus mark for Pan American Silver’s revenues is $769.15 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 12%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAAS’ earnings for the second quarter is pegged at 39 cents per share. The estimate indicates a significant climb from earnings of 11 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. PAAS has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 36.7%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on July 30, has an Earnings ESP of +7.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agnico Eagle Mines’ revenues is $2.55 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 22.9%.
AEM’s earnings for the second quarter are pegged at $1.69 per share, indicating a year-over-year surge of 57.9%. Agnico Eagle Mines has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 12.3%.
CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW - Free Report) , slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on July 31, has an Earnings ESP of +4.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The consensus mark for CSW Industrials’ first-quarter revenues is $277 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 22.5%.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.74 per share. It indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.9%. CSW Group has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.8%.