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Shake Shack to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Shake Shack is expected to report Q2 EPS of $0.37, up 37% year over year on strong revenue growth.
  • Menu innovation and digital, drive-thru, and licensing expansion are likely to have boosted fiscal Q2 sales.
  • Urban traffic softness, inflation and higher marketing costs might have pressured Q2 margins.

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 31, before the opening bell.

SHAK’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 4.1%.

Trend in Estimate Revision of SHAK

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 37 cents, indicating an improvement of 37% from 27 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $353.8 million. The projection implies an 11.8% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Shake Shack, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Shake Shack, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Shake Shack, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Shake Shack, Inc. Quote

Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors Likely to Shape Shake Shack’s Quarterly Results

Shake Shack’s second-quarter fiscal 2025 performance is expected to have benefited from disciplined execution of its strategic growth pillars, including culinary innovation, restaurant-level efficiency and expansion of digital and drive-thru capabilities. Continued focus on menu development, enhanced guest engagement and the roll-out of high-return new units is likely to have supported both sales and margin momentum in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Contribution from new unit development and licensing expansion is likely to have bolstered system-wide sales in the fiscal second quarter. In the fiscal second quarter, the company expects total revenues to be between $346 million and $353 million.

A robust innovation pipeline is likely to have played a key role in driving traffic and mix in the fiscal second quarter. Shake Shack’s Summer Barbecue LTO platform, featuring four sandwiches including chicken-based items and elevated toppings, is likely to have fueled customer engagement during the quarter. Also, strong demand for the Dubai Chocolate Pistachio Shake is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal second quarter.

The company expects the fiscal second-quarter restaurant-level margin to be between 23% and 23.5%, indicating a 100-150 basis point expansion year over year, supported by disciplined cost management. 

However, traffic softness in urban markets like New York City and Los Angeles, along with lingering weather-related disruptions, might have weighed on same-Shack sales early in the quarter. Stepped-up marketing and G&A investments tied to digital initiatives and a more evenly spread advertising calendar, as well as inflation in food and paper costs, might have pressured margins in the fiscal second quarter. Our model predicts total operating expenses in the fiscal second quarter to rise 9.5% year over year to $334.7 million.

What Our Model Says About SHAK Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Shake Shack this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP for SHAK: Shake Shack has an Earnings ESP of -3.79%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Shake Shack’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat.

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.34% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Yum! Brands is expected to register a 7.4% gain in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.5%.

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to increase 50.9% year over year. Brinker’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 24.5%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.47% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to decrease 2.8% year over year. Cheesecake Factory’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise being 15.1%.

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