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HMY vs. GFI: Which Gold Mining Stock Is the Better Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
Harmony is backed by strong cash flow, copper-gold projects, and 190.8% expected EPS growth in 2025.
Gold Fields targets growth through the Windfall project in Quebec and the full control of Gruyere.
HMY trades at 4.93x forward earnings vs. GFI's 8.74x, while GFI offers a higher dividend yield at 2.5%.
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY - Free Report) and Gold Fields Limited (GFI - Free Report) are prominent South Africa-based gold mining companies. They are benefiting from the surge in gold prices this year, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. While gold prices have fallen from their April 2025 highs, they remain favorable, aided by economic uncertainties, and are currently hovering above the $3,300 per ounce level. Against this backdrop, comparing these two gold producers is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the precious metals sector.
Despite the recent pullback, gold prices have gained roughly 27% this year. The aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety, prompting the price rally. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. Prices of the yellow metal catapulted to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. Increased purchases by central banks, hopes of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two gold miners to determine which one is a better investment now.
The Case for Harmony
Harmony is South Africa's biggest gold producer by volume, with production of roughly 1.56 million ounces in fiscal 2024. It has a diverse portfolio of gold development projects spread across South Africa and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The company’s development projects currently in progress include the development of the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in PNG and the Eva Copper project in Australia.
The Wafi-Golpu project is believed to be a game-changer for the company, with an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces. HMY is currently in negotiations with its joint venture partner, Newmont Corporation (NEM) and the PNG Government regarding the terms of a Mining Development Contract, which is required for a Special Mining Lease.
The low-risk Eva Copper project in Australia offers additional upside, giving HMY a significant global copper-gold footprint. HMY acquired Eva Copper in 2022, adding a tier-one mining jurisdiction to its portfolio. The acquisition is in line with HMY’s objective of transitioning into a low-cost gold and copper mining company. The feasibility study update for the project is currently underway. HMY has received a conditional grant funding from the Queensland government, which will help accelerate the development of this project. It is subject to several conditions, including HMY reaching a positive final investment decision by January 2026. Eva Copper is expected to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper per annum.
Harmony boasts a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects and drive shareholder value. Its net cash climbed roughly 53% to $592 million at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended March 31, 2025), from $386 million at the end of first-half fiscal 2025 (ended Dec. 31, 2024).
HMY also has a dividend policy to pay 20% of net free cash generated to its shareholders at its board’s discretion. HMY offers a dividend yield of 1.4% at the current stock price. It has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 19.4%.
The Case for Gold Fields
Gold Fields continues to progress its strategic priorities that align with its three strategic pillars of the business, which include reliable and cost-effective delivery and improving the quality of its asset portfolio. GFI had a strong start to 2025 with attributable equivalent gold production climbing roughly 19% year over year to 551,000 ounces in the first quarter. Gold Fields remains on track to meet its production guidance for 2025. It expects gold equivalent production of 2.25-2.45 million ounces, which indicates year-over-year growth of 13% at the mid-point.
In October 2024, Gold Fields completed the acquisition of Osisko Mining. This move is in sync with GFI’s goal to strengthen its portfolio through investments in high-quality and long-life assets. The acquisition enables GFI to expand its presence in Quebec, a Tier 1 mining jurisdiction. It will allow the company to use its expertise in greenfields exploration, project development and underground mining.
GFI is advancing its high-grade Windfall project in Quebec, targeting 300,000 ounces of gold annually. It acquired 100% ownership of the Windfall project through the completion of its Osisko Mining buyout. Gold Fields is focused on obtaining the required environmental approvals for full-scale construction and mining.
Production ramp-up also continues at Salares Norte in Chile, with commercial levels of production expected in the third quarter of 2025, followed by steady state throughput during the fourth quarter. Gold equivalent production from the mine is expected to be between 325,000 ounces and 375,000 ounces for 2025. GFI is conducting extensive exploration drilling to identify life extension opportunities at the mine.
The proposed acquisition of Gold Road offers additional upside. Gold Fields, in May 2025, agreed to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding share capital of Gold Road Resources Limited. The acquisition, expected to be completed by October 2025, provides an opportunity to enhance GFI’s portfolio through the consolidation of the Gruyere mine in Western Australia, which Gold Fields already operates. Gold Road holds a 50% interest in the Gruyere gold mine in addition to a portfolio of 100%-owned exploration projects. The full ownership of Gruyere will offer GFI more flexibility regarding operation and future development opportunities, besides enhancing its cash-flow profile.
Gold Fields remains committed to driving shareholder returns and reducing debt, leveraging healthy cash flow, aided by higher gold prices. It reduced net debt to $1,981 million at the end of the first quarter from $2,086 million at the end of the prior quarter. GFI offers a dividend yield of 2.5% at the current stock price. Its five-year annualized dividend growth rate is roughly 17.3%.
Price Performance and Valuation of HMY & GFI
Year to date, HMY stock has shot up 71%, while GFI stock has rallied 91.8% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s increase of 55.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Harmony is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.93. This represents a roughly 60% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 12.4X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Gold Fields is trading at a premium to Harmony. The GFI stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 8.74, below the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for HMY & GFI?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY’s 2025 EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 190.8%. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been going up over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for GFI’s 2025 EPS implies year-over-year growth of 93.9%. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
Both Harmony Gold and Gold Fields are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment. HMY appears to have an edge over GFI due to its more attractive valuation. In addition, Harmony Gold’s stronger growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment. Investors seeking exposure to the gold space might consider HMY as the more favorable option at this time.
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HMY vs. GFI: Which Gold Mining Stock Is the Better Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY - Free Report) and Gold Fields Limited (GFI - Free Report) are prominent South Africa-based gold mining companies. They are benefiting from the surge in gold prices this year, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. While gold prices have fallen from their April 2025 highs, they remain favorable, aided by economic uncertainties, and are currently hovering above the $3,300 per ounce level. Against this backdrop, comparing these two gold producers is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the precious metals sector.
Despite the recent pullback, gold prices have gained roughly 27% this year. The aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety, prompting the price rally. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. Prices of the yellow metal catapulted to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. Increased purchases by central banks, hopes of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two gold miners to determine which one is a better investment now.
The Case for Harmony
Harmony is South Africa's biggest gold producer by volume, with production of roughly 1.56 million ounces in fiscal 2024. It has a diverse portfolio of gold development projects spread across South Africa and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The company’s development projects currently in progress include the development of the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in PNG and the Eva Copper project in Australia.
The Wafi-Golpu project is believed to be a game-changer for the company, with an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces. HMY is currently in negotiations with its joint venture partner, Newmont Corporation (NEM) and the PNG Government regarding the terms of a Mining Development Contract, which is required for a Special Mining Lease.
The low-risk Eva Copper project in Australia offers additional upside, giving HMY a significant global copper-gold footprint. HMY acquired Eva Copper in 2022, adding a tier-one mining jurisdiction to its portfolio. The acquisition is in line with HMY’s objective of transitioning into a low-cost gold and copper mining company. The feasibility study update for the project is currently underway. HMY has received a conditional grant funding from the Queensland government, which will help accelerate the development of this project. It is subject to several conditions, including HMY reaching a positive final investment decision by January 2026. Eva Copper is expected to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper per annum.
Harmony boasts a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects and drive shareholder value. Its net cash climbed roughly 53% to $592 million at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended March 31, 2025), from $386 million at the end of first-half fiscal 2025 (ended Dec. 31, 2024).
HMY also has a dividend policy to pay 20% of net free cash generated to its shareholders at its board’s discretion. HMY offers a dividend yield of 1.4% at the current stock price. It has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 19.4%.
The Case for Gold Fields
Gold Fields continues to progress its strategic priorities that align with its three strategic pillars of the business, which include reliable and cost-effective delivery and improving the quality of its asset portfolio. GFI had a strong start to 2025 with attributable equivalent gold production climbing roughly 19% year over year to 551,000 ounces in the first quarter. Gold Fields remains on track to meet its production guidance for 2025. It expects gold equivalent production of 2.25-2.45 million ounces, which indicates year-over-year growth of 13% at the mid-point.
In October 2024, Gold Fields completed the acquisition of Osisko Mining. This move is in sync with GFI’s goal to strengthen its portfolio through investments in high-quality and long-life assets. The acquisition enables GFI to expand its presence in Quebec, a Tier 1 mining jurisdiction. It will allow the company to use its expertise in greenfields exploration, project development and underground mining.
GFI is advancing its high-grade Windfall project in Quebec, targeting 300,000 ounces of gold annually. It acquired 100% ownership of the Windfall project through the completion of its Osisko Mining buyout. Gold Fields is focused on obtaining the required environmental approvals for full-scale construction and mining.
Production ramp-up also continues at Salares Norte in Chile, with commercial levels of production expected in the third quarter of 2025, followed by steady state throughput during the fourth quarter. Gold equivalent production from the mine is expected to be between 325,000 ounces and 375,000 ounces for 2025. GFI is conducting extensive exploration drilling to identify life extension opportunities at the mine.
The proposed acquisition of Gold Road offers additional upside. Gold Fields, in May 2025, agreed to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding share capital of Gold Road Resources Limited. The acquisition, expected to be completed by October 2025, provides an opportunity to enhance GFI’s portfolio through the consolidation of the Gruyere mine in Western Australia, which Gold Fields already operates. Gold Road holds a 50% interest in the Gruyere gold mine in addition to a portfolio of 100%-owned exploration projects. The full ownership of Gruyere will offer GFI more flexibility regarding operation and future development opportunities, besides enhancing its cash-flow profile.
Gold Fields remains committed to driving shareholder returns and reducing debt, leveraging healthy cash flow, aided by higher gold prices. It reduced net debt to $1,981 million at the end of the first quarter from $2,086 million at the end of the prior quarter. GFI offers a dividend yield of 2.5% at the current stock price. Its five-year annualized dividend growth rate is roughly 17.3%.
Price Performance and Valuation of HMY & GFI
Year to date, HMY stock has shot up 71%, while GFI stock has rallied 91.8% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s increase of 55.4%.
Harmony is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.93. This represents a roughly 60% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 12.4X.
Gold Fields is trading at a premium to Harmony. The GFI stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 8.74, below the industry.
How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for HMY & GFI?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY’s 2025 EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 190.8%. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been going up over the past 60 days.
The consensus estimate for GFI’s 2025 EPS implies year-over-year growth of 93.9%. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
HMY or GFI: Which Stock Should You Bet on Now?
Both HMY and GFI currently have a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Both Harmony Gold and Gold Fields are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment. HMY appears to have an edge over GFI due to its more attractive valuation. In addition, Harmony Gold’s stronger growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment. Investors seeking exposure to the gold space might consider HMY as the more favorable option at this time.