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Suncor Energy to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

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Key Takeaways

  • Suncor Energy's Q2 revenues are expected to decline 19.7% year over year to reach $7.6 billion.
  • Higher oil sands and syncrude output may be offset by tariffs, outages and pipeline constraints.
  • Refining margin pressures and trade disruptions could weigh on SU's Q2 revenues and profitability.

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 5, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 50 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $7.6 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced SU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of SU’s Q1 Earnings & Surprise History

In the previous reported quarter, this Alberta-based integrated oil and gas company’s earnings beat the consensus mark. SU reported an earnings per share of 91 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 86 cents. This was primarily due to strong production growth in its upstream segment in the reported quarter. The company’s operating revenues of $8.7 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.9%.

SU’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 14.9%.

This is depicted in the graph below: 

Suncor Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Suncor Energy  Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Suncor Energy Inc. price-eps-surprise | Suncor Energy Inc. Quote

Trend in SU’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed a downward movement of 13.8% in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 46.2% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a decrease of 19.7% from the year-ago period’s actual.

Factors to Consider Ahead of SU’s Q2 Release

Suncor Energy makes money by operating in three main areas. First, in its Oil Sands business, Suncor Energy extracts and processes oil from Canada's oil sands, producing crude oil and synthetic oil. Second, through its Exploration and Production segment, Suncor Energy operates offshore oil and gas fields, producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. Finally, in its Refining and Marketing segment, Suncor Energy refines crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel. Suncor Energy sells these products through its retail gas stations and other distribution channels.

The consensus mark for Suncor Energy’s daily oil sands production is expected to reach 731 thousand barrels (mbbls), up 15 mbbls from the production reported in the second quarter of 2024. Moreover, daily syncrude production is expected to reach 213 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (mboe), up 42 mboe from the second quarter of 2024. The company’s first quarter of 2025 performance demonstrated continued improvement, and the same uptick is expected to have continued in the second quarter.

On a bearish note, multiple large-scale turnarounds in the second quarter of 2025, including a 91-day outage for Upgrader 1, could face execution risks and impact throughput, margins, and cash flows due to delays and cost overruns. Potential trade disruptions, including U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude, are likely to impact Suncor Energy’s export market. While the company has a strong domestic presence, any restrictions on cross-border trade could lower realized prices. Pipeline capacity constraints also present ongoing transportation risks.

Even with higher production, weaker oil prices or refining margins are likely to have limited revenue growth, potentially affecting earnings. Furthermore, fluctuations in refining crack spreads and fuel demand are likely to have pressured downstream margins, reducing the financial benefit of record throughput levels.

What Does Our Model Predict About SU?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Suncor Energy this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of SU: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SU’s Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Talos Energy Inc. (TALO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +34.58% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Talos Energy is scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 6. TALO’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 191.6%.

Valued at around $1.6 billion, TALO’s shares have lost 25.3% in a year.

Permian Resources Corporation (PR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.51% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. PR is slated to release earnings on Aug. 6.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PR’s 2025 revenues indicates 5.5% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $11.6 billion, PR’s shares have lost 7% in a year.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.89% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CNQ is slated to release earnings on Aug. 7.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Canadian Naturals’ 2025 revenues indicates 4.6% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $67.4 billion, CNQ’s shares have lost 10.1% in a year.

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