What is going on in the Global Week Ahead?

Geopolitics is high on the agenda, with:

• A potential meeting between the U.S. and Russian Presidents, and

• U.S./China trade deadlines and talks.

• Markets are also bracing for United States’ July CPI data, and

• Monetary policy rate decisions from Australia and Norway.


Next are Reuters' five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—

(1) Is August Going to See a Spike in Volatility?

The middle of August is generally viewed as one of the dullest periods in the year.

Lawmakers and central bankers are on a break, there is no big data and traders use the lull to ditch their screens.

There's just one small problem. August is when volatility has a habit of exploding - and last year was a case in point.

A sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen, combined with a drop in U.S. tech stocks ignited one of the biggest one-day bursts in volatility on record.

The average daily percentage move in the VIX volatility index (VIX), in August over the last 35 years is 0.55%, the highest for any month.

The least volatile month is April - even with this year's meltdown after Trump's announcement of his "Liberation Day" tariffs - with an average daily move of 0.07%.

With stocks at record highs, and positioning in things like the dollar stretched, there is no shortage of tripwires.

(2) Will There Be a U.S./China Trade Deal by the August 12th Deadline?

There has been further progress in the makings of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing, or so Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have said.

But the August 12 deadline for a tariff truce between the world's two economic superpowers is closing in. Trump has yet to sign on the dotted line after both sides at talks in Stockholm agreed to seek an extension of a pause on tariffs.

Still, things seem somewhat positive for now. Trump has said he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year should a trade deal be struck.

Investors, meanwhile, are craving more clarity, remaining largely on the sidelines and leaving Chinese markets range-bound for the most part, though stocks ended the week near a 10-month high.

(3) On Tuesday, the July U.S. CPI Data Gets Released

Firming bets that the U.S. Fed is primed to resume cutting interest rates will be tested by Tuesday's release of U.S. inflation data.

The July consumer price index will also be watched for signs of the impact of Trump's tariffs deluge fueling more price hikes. June data showed the biggest rise in five months, as higher costs for some goods were starting to bite.

A hot number could shake the narrative that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting in September, which has gathered steam after a surprisingly weak employment report earlier this month.

The inflation report is also one of the most significant U.S. economic data releases since Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the weak jobs report - a move that stoked fears about data integrity and credibility.

(4) U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin Meet in Alaska

Shuttle diplomacy is in full swing with U.S. President Donald Trump set to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin in the coming days - the first face-to-face summit between a sitting U.S. president and his Russian counterpart since Joe Biden met Putin in June 2021.

Trump - who has veered between admiration and sharp criticism of Putin - is looking for a breakthrough to end the 3-1/2 year war in Ukraine after voicing mounting frustration with his Russian counterpart and threatening new sanctions.

Ramifications of the encounter are likely to ripple through global markets with secondary tariffs set to hurt Russia and other nations around the world. Trump has imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing continued imports of Russian oil, and warned that China could be next.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is pushing for Europe to be involved in the peace process and talks.

(5) The Reserve Bank of Australia & Norway’s Norges Bank Set Monetary Policy

Australia's and Norway's central banks have been the two most cautious in developed economies in this cycle of rate cuts, but markets think their next moves could see them diverge.

The Reserve Bank of Australia only started easing this year, and has made just two 25 bps cuts from its 2024 peak, compared to a cumulative 100 bps for the Fed, and 200 bps for the ECB. Norway's central bank has made just one 25 bps cut.

In Australia, where inflation grew at its slowest pace in four years in the three months to June, markets expect a 25 bps reduction on Tuesday with one or maybe two more such cuts to follow this year.

The Norges Bank, in contrast, is set to stay on hold on Thursday, with another cut not fully priced until November.

Be nervous with market pricing though, at their last meetings both central banks confounded market expectations with Norway making its one cut, and Australia staying on hold.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

(1) GE Healthcare Technologies, Inc. (GEHC Quick QuoteGEHC - Free Report) : This is a $72 a share stock, with a market cap of $32.8B. It is found in the Medical-Products industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Chicago, IL-based GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. or GE HealthCare is one of the leading providers of medical technology, pharmaceutical diagnostics, and digital solutions with focus on precision care.

The company was formed on Jan 3, 2023, following a spin-off by its parent company — the General Electric Company.

The company’s products and services include medical devices, single-use and consumable products, service capabilities and digital solutions.

It uses integrated diagnostics, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning for providing clinical decision support, highly personalized therapies enabled by more precise diagnostics, and remote patient monitoring.

It has a large global installed base of medical imaging, ultrasound and patient monitoring systems.

GE HealthCare has extensive reach throughout the global healthcare system for medical technology, pharmaceutical diagnostics, and digital solutions with presence in more than 160 countries and a network of 43 manufacturing sites across 17 countries.

GE HealthCare reports under four business segments — Imaging, Ultrasound, Patient Care Solutions (PCS) and Pharmaceutical Diagnostics (PDx).

• The company’s Imaging portfolio comprises six product lines and associated service capabilities — Molecular Imaging (MI), Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance (MR), Image-Guided Therapies, Women’s Health (WH) and X-ray.

• Ultrasound portfolio caters to Radiology and Primary Care, Women’s Health, Cardiovascular, Point of Care and Handheld, and Surgical Visualization & Guidance.

• PCS portfolio comprises five product lines — Patient Monitoring, Anesthesia Delivery and Respiratory Care, Diagnostic Cardiology, Maternal Infant Care, and Consumables and Services.

• The PDx business comprises two business lines — Contrast Media and Molecular Imaging.

FY24 at Glance

In 2024, GE HealthCare reported revenues of $19.67 billion, up 1% over FY23. Adjusted EPS for the year improved 14.2% year over year to $4.49.

(2) Carnival (CCL Quick QuoteCCL - Free Report) ): This is a $28 a share stock, with a market cap of $33.1B. It is found in the Leisure and Recreation Services industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Miami, FL, Carnival operates as a cruise and vacation company.

As a single economic entity, Carnival Corporation & Carnival plc forms the largest cruise operator in the world. It is the world’s leading leisure travel firm and carries nearly half of the global cruise guests. The company operates in North America, Australia, Europe and Asia.

The firm’s cruise brand include AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK) and Seabourn. It is of the opinion that cruising provides a diverse array of products and services tailored to accommodate vacationing guests of various ages, backgrounds and interests.

Carnival has four reportable segments, including NAA cruise operations, Europe cruise operations (Europe), Cruise Support and Tour and Other.

The company has grouped the operating segments within its NAA and Europe reportable segments by combining them according to the similarity of their economic and other characteristics.

• The Cruise Support segment encompasses a range of services, including a portfolio of top port destinations and exclusive islands coupled with other related services, all operated for the benefit of the company's cruise brands.

• Meanwhile, the Tour and Other segment comprises the hotel and transportation operations of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, along with other related activities.

Carnival Cruise Line is one of the most recognizable brands in the cruise industry and carried more than 13.5 million guests in 2024.

(3) Comfort Systems USA (FIX Quick QuoteFIX - Free Report) ): This is a $692 a share stock, with a market cap of $24.4B. It is found in the Building Products – Aire Heating and Conditioning industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is a national provider of comprehensive heating, ventilation and air conditioning installation, maintenance, repair and replacement services.

The Company operates primarily in the commercial and industrial HVAC markets, and perform most of their services within manufacturing plants, office buildings, retail centers, apartment complexes, and healthcare, education and government facilities.

Comfort Systems USA merged with the best regional experts, and now provides nationwide reach through 36 subsidiary companies that are prepared to build, service or retrofit any mechanical, HVAC or electrical system.

Whether the project is Design-Build or Plan and Spec, Comfort Systems USA can help from the design phase to construction with qualified professionals, quality products and an experienced contractor team.

Key Global Macro

The July U.S. CPI print, out on Wednesday, is the major macro data out this week.

On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets monetary policy.

The U.K.’s household unemployment rate is 4.7%. We get an update.

On Tuesday, the U.S. broad CPI for July is expected to rise from +2.6% to +2.7% y/y.

On Wednesday, the U.K.’s real GDP growth rate for Q2 should be +0.7%, falling from a +1.3% prior Q1 reading.

On Thursday, the U.S. core PPI is expected to rise +03% m/m in July from +0.2% m/m in June. This could signal the beginning of tariff-related Producer Price Inflation.

On Friday, U.S. broad Retail Sales should rise +0.6% m/m in July versus +0.5% m/m in June.

Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied a final Q2 earnings update on August 8th—

“As we head into the final phase of the Q2 earnings season, we can say with complete confidence that the overall earnings picture remains strong and resilient.

“Even more importantly, the outlook for the current and coming quarters has clearly started improving, with the favorable revisions trend particularly notable for the Tech sector.

“While we still have a few key Tech sector players among the 9% of S&P 500 members that are still to report results, the primary focus of the still-to-come reports will be on the retail space.

“We have a couple of retail-centric companies, such as Advanced Auto and Birkenstock on deck to report this week, but the bulk of the sector results will start coming out the following week.”

Here are his three key takeaways from the Q2 earnings season.

First, we saw an above-average proportion of companies beat Q2 EPS and revenue estimates, with the beats percentage particularly notable on the revenues side.

Through Friday, August 8th, we have seen Q2 results from 455 S&P500 members, or 91% of the index’s total membership.

Total earnings for these companies are up +11.6% from the same period last year on +5.9% revenue growth, with 80.4% beating EPS estimates and 79.1% beating revenue estimates.

This is a notably better performance relative to what we have seen from this group of index members in other recent periods.

Second, we are on track for a new all-time quarterly record for the aggregate Q2 earnings total for the S&P500 index, surpassing the previous record set in Q4-24.

Looking at Q2 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 455 index members that have reported already with estimates for the still-to-come 45 companies, total S&P500 earnings are expected to be up +12.1% from the same period last year, on +6.2% higher revenues.

The Q2 earnings growth rate improves to +13.9% when the Energy sector’s drag is removed from the results and weakens to +8.5% when the Tech sector’s substantial contribution is excluded from the aggregate numbers.

Aggregate earnings are on track to reach $582 billion, up from $556.2 billion in the preceding period, $519.3 billion in the year-earlier quarter, and the previous record of $573.6 billion in 2024 Q4.

Third, the revisions trend has turned positive, with the trend particularly notable for the Tech sector.

For the current period (Q3-25), the expectation today is for earnings growth of +5.1% for the S&P 500 index on +5.6% higher revenues.

Since the start of July, Q3 estimates have increased for 6 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the biggest gains for the Tech, Finance, Energy, and Retail sectors.

On the negative side, Q3 estimates have declined for the remaining 10 sectors since the start of the period, with the biggest declines for the Medical, Transportation, Basic Materials, Construction, and Auto sectors.

For the Tech sector, Q3 earnings are currently expected to be up +10.4% from the same period last year, on +11.5% higher revenues.

Enjoy an excellent week, trading and investing.

Warm regards,

John Blank, PhD.