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CINF Outperforms Industry, Trades at a Premium: How to Play the Stock

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Key Takeaways

  • CINF boasts 65 consecutive years of dividend increases, with a current yield surpassing the industry average.
  • CINF benefits from prudent pricing, an agent-centric model, and disciplined growth in Cincinnati Re.
  • CINF actively returns capital, reflecting strong operating performance and financial flexibility.

Shares of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) have gained 16.6% in the past year, outperforming its industry’s growth of 7.9%. It, however, underperformed the Finance sector, as well as the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return of 19% and 18.3%, respectively. 

With a market capitalization of $23.43 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.5 million.

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CINF’s Expensive Valuation

Based on the forward 12-month price-to-book ratio, Cincinnati Financial is currently trading at 1.64X, above its industry average of 1.42X. Shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) , W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) , and Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average.

CINF Trading Above 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages

Closing at $149.88 on Monday, the stock stands 7.3% below its 52-week high of $161.75. The stock is trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $148.43 and $144.65, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.

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CINF’s Growth Projection Encourages

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cincinnati Financial’s 2025 revenues is pegged at $11.16 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 12.2%. 

The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 43.1% and 8.8%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates. 

Earnings have grown 15.8% in the past five years. CINF beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed in one, with an average surprise of 41.23%.

Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on CINF

Five of the seven analysts covering the stock haves raised estimates for 2025, and three analysts have raised the same for 2026 over the past 30 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 moved 9.8% and 1.3% north, respectively, in the last 30 days.

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Average Target Price for CINF Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by six analysts, the Zacks average price target is $162.00 per share. The average suggests a potential 7.9% upside from the last closing price.

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Factors Acting in Favor of CINF

Prudent pricing, an agent-centric model, a higher level of insured exposures and disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re should benefit premiums, the primary driver of an insurer’s top line. CINF boasts above-average industry premium growth.

The Excess and Surplus line has been performing well since its inception in 2008. This segment should continue to benefit from new business-written premiums, higher renewal-written premiums and higher average renewal estimated pricing. Technology and data are also used to identify new exposures in emerging businesses.

Improving interest income from fixed-maturity securities and a decrease in equity portfolio dividends in an improved rate environment should drive net investment income.

Notably, its free cash flow conversion has remained more than 150% over the last few quarters, reflecting its solid earnings.

CINF’s Wealth Distribution

In terms of capital management, Cincinnati Financial has returned capital to its shareholders through share buybacks, regular cash dividends, as well as special dividends. The board of directors had increased the annual cash dividend rate for 65 consecutive years. Its dividend yield of 2.3% is better than the industry average of 0.2%, making the stock an attractive pick for yield-seeking investors. The dividend increases reflected strong operating performance and signaled management and the board's positive outlook and confidence in outstanding capital, liquidity and financial flexibility.

End Notes

Higher level of insured exposure, rate increases, agent-focused business models, consistent cash flow and prudent capital deployment make Cincinnati Financial a strong contender for being in one’s portfolio. The stock also has a VGM Score of B. VGM Score helps identify stocks with the most attractive value, best growth and the most promising momentum.

Coupled with the impressive dividend history, solid growth projections, as well as optimistic analyst sentiment, the time appears right for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) insurer. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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