Novo Nordisk (NVO Quick QuoteNVO - Free Report) faced a significant setback in July after sharply reducing its 2025 outlook for both sales and operating profit growth, resulting in a decline in its share price. The downgrade stems from weaker-than-expected momentum for its semaglutide-based obesity and diabetes drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, especially in the U.S. obesity market. Despite the FDA ending its compounding grace period in May 2025, the company reported that illegal sales of counterfeit semaglutide persist under the pretext of personalization, hampering Wegovy’s uptake. In response, the company is pursuing litigation and regulatory action to protect patients and market share.

Wegovy’s adoption has also been slower than anticipated in both cash and insured channels, despite efforts through NovoCare Pharmacy and telehealth partnerships. Market expansion has lagged, and competition in the GLP-1 obesity segment, especially from NVO’s arch-rival, Eli Lilly (LLY Quick QuoteLLY - Free Report) , has intensified. LLY markets its tirzepatide injections as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. Despite being on the market for a shorter duration, Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have witnessed strong sales driven by rapid demand. Ozempic is also facing similar competitive pressures in the U.S. diabetes market, while international launches of Wegovy are experiencing uneven uptake across obesity markets.

However, following a major pipeline setback for Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk stock is staging a modest recovery, as is evident by the 5.8% gain in share price so far in August. Last week, LLY reported underwhelming efficacy results from the ATTAIN-1 study, the first of two pivotal phase III studies of its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, resulting in a significant drop in the stock price, given its strategic importance within Lilly’s obesity pipeline. Investor sentiment was further dampened by the study’s high patient discontinuation rates, stemming from both side effects and personal reasons, raising doubts about orforglipron’s long-term utility in chronic obesity management.

This presents a significant opportunity for Novo Nordisk to bounce back. NVO is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several other new candidates for diabetes and obesity. The company also has strong fundamentals, and the untapped nature of the obesity market makes us believe that the stock has significant upside potential in the future. Let’s dig deeper and understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to understand how to play the stock.

Semaglutide – Still NVO’s Primary Top-Line Driver

Novo Nordisk’s success in recent years has been driven by the sales of Ozempic (injection) and Rybelsus (oral) for diabetes, and Wegovy for obesity. Despite its recent market turmoil, the company holds a strong position in diabetes care, with one of the industry's broadest portfolios.

Wegovy is a major revenue driver, recording sales of $5.41 billion (DKK 36.9 billion) during the first half of 2025, up 78% year over year on strong prescription growth. Ozempic also continues to boost overall revenues. To protect its lead amid competition from Lilly, Novo Nordisk is heavily investing in its GLP-1 manufacturing capacity. As of July 1, CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager, has designated Wegovy as its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss.

Novo Nordisk is expanding semaglutide's reach through new indications. Wegovy is now approved for reducing major cardiovascular events, easing HFpEF symptoms, and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity. Ozempic’s label includes use in diabetes patients with cardiovascular and kidney diseases.

The FDA is reviewing Novo Nordisk’s application for a 25 mg oral semaglutide for obesity, with a decision expected by year-end. Oral pills could boost adherence over injections. Potential approval would give Novo Nordisk a notable advantage as the sole manufacturer of a marketed oral obesity pill, positioning it to capture significant market share. NVO has also filed Rybelsus for cardiac event prevention in diabetes patients. A 7.2 mg Wegovy dose, showing up to 25% weight loss in the STEP UP study, is under EU review. Label expansion is also being sought for Ozempic in treating peripheral artery disease in the United States and the EU.

Beyond its GLP-1 portfolio, Novo Nordisk is broadening its presence in rare diseases. The company is advancing regulatory plans for Mim8 in hemophilia A and has secured EU approval for Alhemo to treat hemophilia A and B with inhibitors. Alhemo is also under EU review for patients without inhibitors. In the United States, the therapy is already approved for both hemophilia A and B, with or without inhibitors. It also expects to file for semaglutide to treat metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis in both the United States and the EU in 2025.

NVO Focuses on Next-Generation Drugs for Obesity

Novo Nordisk is also developing several next-generation obesity candidates in its pipeline, especially targeting the lucrative U.S. market. The most advanced weight loss candidate in Novo Nordisk’s pipeline is CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of a long-acting amylin analogue and Wegovy. The company is planning its regulatory submission in 2026.

Novo Nordisk is also developing a small-molecule oral CB1 inverse agonist, monlunabant, in a mid-stage study. The company is currently gearing up to advance Amycretin, an investigational unimolecular GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist, for weight management into late-stage development. The phase III program on amycretin is planned to be initiated during the first quarter of 2026.

Recently, Novo Nordisk signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for developing and commercializing oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases.

Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space

Competition in the obesity market is heating up as the obesity market is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Lilly and Novo Nordisk presently dominate the market.

Several other companies, like Amgen (AMGN Quick QuoteAMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX Quick QuoteVKTX - Free Report) , are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Amgen has begun a broad phase III program on its dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, MariTide, across obesity, obesity-related conditions and diabetes, with the first two phase III studies initiated in March. Viking Therapeutics started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. VKTX is also evaluating an oral version of this obesity drug in an ongoing mid-stage study, with a data readout expected later this year.

NVO’s Stock Price, Valuation, Estimates

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 42.1% compared with the industry’s 8% decline. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Novo Nordisk is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 12.12 forward earnings, which is lower than 13.73 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $3.86 to $3.89 per share over the past seven days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share estimates have improved from $4.20 to $4.24.

NVO Estimate Movement

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The stock’s return on equity on a trailing 12-month basis is 78.64%, which is higher than 34.32% for the large drugmaker industry, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Return on Equity

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Here’s How to Play NVO Stock

Novo Nordisk, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), remains a strong long-term player in diabetes and obesity care despite recent guidance cuts and competitive pressures. The company holds a dominant GLP-1 market position, with Wegovy and Ozempic delivering strong double-digit sales growth and benefiting from expanding indications. A potential FDA approval for 25 mg oral semaglutide for obesity by year-end could give NVO a first-to-market edge, improving adherence and broadening its reach. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Competition from Eli Lilly remains intense, but Lilly’s recent setback with oral candidate orforglipron has pivoted investor sentiment toward NVO. The company’s deep pipeline, including next-generation obesity candidates like CagriSema and Amycretin, along with rare disease therapies such as Mim8 and Alhemo, offers broad potential for market expansion. Manufacturing expansions and strategic deals, including a $2.2 billion Septerna partnership, also support long-term growth.

Given these strengths, current holders may retain their positions, while long-term investors could use the current price as an entry point. Near-term volatility is likely due to competition, uneven Wegovy uptake internationally, and legal action over counterfeit semaglutide, making it less attractive for short-term trading.