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PEGA Trades 16% Below 52-Week High: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • PEGA shares are 16% below July's high, underperforming sector peers since Q2 results.
  • Strong ACV growth and subscription shift boost demand for AI-powered cloud solutions.
  • Stiff competition and high valuation create near-term risk despite long-term growth drivers.

Pegasystems (PEGA - Free Report) shares closed at $50.96 on Aug. 12, roughly 16% lower compared with its 52-week high of $60.96 reached on July 30. Since the second-quarter 2025 results were reported on July 22, PEGA shares have inched up 0.1%, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector, as well as its closest peers, Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) , Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) and SS&C Technologies (SSNC - Free Report) . While the broader sector has appreciated 3%, shares of Microsoft, Oracle and SS&C Technologies have jumped 4.7%, 6.6%, and 3.1%, respectively, over the same timeframe.

The underperformance can be attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment and stiff competition from Microsoft and Oracle in the business process management domain. SS&C Technologies’ Blue Prism is a well-known robotic and digital process automation provider. Apart from stiff competition, PEGA’s near-term results are expected to suffer from a seasonally slower third quarter in terms of net new Annual Contract Value (ACV), net new ACV addition, and free cash flow. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 18 cents per share, down a couple of cents over the past 30 days. The figure indicates a 5.3% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $355 million, indicating 9.2% year-over-year growth.
 

 

PEGA shares have appreciated 9.4% year to date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector.

PEGA Stock’s YTD Performance

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

PEGA shares are trading above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.

PEGA Shares Trade Above 200-Day SMA

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

PEGA Rides on Strong ACV Growth, Subscription Business

Pegasystems is benefiting from robust demand for its AI-powered and cloud-based solutions. As organizations accelerate digital modernization, the company’s platform continues to gain traction, ensuring durable, long-term growth potential in a market that is expected to reach over $150 billion by 2029.

Pegasystems’ completion of the shift to the subscription-based business model has been a key catalyst. Pega Cloud Annual Contract Value (ACV) surged 25% year over year at constant currency (cc) to $71 million in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting rising enterprise adoption of the platform.  Total ACV increased 14% year over year at cc, with net new ACV addition increasing 60% year over year at cc in the first half of 2025 compared with the first half of 2024. ACV growth is expected to remain robust thanks to ongoing digital transformation, strong adoption of Pega GenAI Blueprint and case-based pricing approach. 

At the end of the second quarter of 2025, backlog increased 27% at cc, which offers good visibility into PEGA’s future performance. Pega Cloud's current backlog, which is backlog that’s expected to come into revenues within 12 months, increased 25% at cc. 

Pegasystems recently announced Pega Blueprint capabilities that include the usage of agentic AI to ingest, analyze and convert a wide array of legacy system assets, including videos, documentation, UI screens, technical files, and source code, into modern applications much faster. Pega Blueprint, the generative AI-powered workflow design agent, accelerates application development projects from months to weeks, and the latest capabilities harness digital transformation much faster.

Rising enterprise demand for Pegasystems’ flexible, term-based licensing model, which provides a faster, more scalable path to digital adoption, is a key catalyst. The company’s expanding enterprise clientele in key verticals, including financial services, insurance, telecommunications, health care, manufacturing and public sector. The introduction of the Blueprint for Government Efficiency Toolkit, a generative AI offering that helps public sector agencies accelerate digital transformation and increase efficiency, is noteworthy.

PEGA Shares Are Overvalued

Pegasystems shares are overvalued, as suggested by the Value Score of D. 

In terms of the trailing 12-month Price/EBITDA (P/EBITDA), PEGA is trading at 24.06X, a premium compared with the broader sector’s 20.01X and SS&C Technologies’ 8.41X. 

However, Microsoft and Oracle are trading at 24.23X and 28.78X, respectively, higher than PEGA’s multiple.

P/EBITDA Ratio (TTM)

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Conclusion

Pegasystems is benefiting from a strong portfolio, expanding ACV and robust free cash flow generating ability. However, stiff competition and PEGA’s stretched valuation make the stock risky for investors in the near term.

Pegasystems currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting that it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point in the stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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