In the Global Week Ahead, the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium is on tap. This event may be the primary source for both U.S. and global macro news flow.
Fundamental macro data risk looks moderate. And second quarter earnings season has wrapped up in the USA.
From time to time, market risks do indeed emanate from this gathering. Here is what is known about the KC Fed’s gathering this year:
1. It starts with an opening dinner and arrivals on Thursday evening and ends on Saturday afternoon.
2. The program agenda will be released Thursday (8 pm EST). This agenda – along with the possibility of surprise announcements on participation of attendees -- may set off traders.
3. The theme to this year’s symposium is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.” 2013 was the last time the theme was global in nature. 10 of 41 Jackson Hole Symposiums since 1978 have had global themes -- either explicitly noted in the conference title or implied.
4. Among top foreign global central bankers, ECB President Mario Draghi has confirmed participation. He did so about a month ago. He speaks Friday at 3 pm EST. Expectations are de minimus. Unnamed ECB officials told newswires Draghi wouldn’t say much ahead of the September ECB meeting.
5. Brazil’s Central Bank President Ilan Goldfajn confirmed attendance.
6. Other central bankers including Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz have not confirmed attendance.
7. Fed Chair Yellen confirmed participation just one week ahead. That’s unusually short notice. She speaks on Friday morning at 10 am EST. Her topic is financial stability.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—
Keep your eye of Tech stocks this week. They may rebound after last week’s selloff. Here are three I found in our ranking system.
Sony Corp (SNE - Free Report) : This is the big Japanese consumer electronics giant. The $49 billion market cap stock also holds a Zacks long-term VGM score of B.
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI - Free Report) : This is a big U.S. Toys-Games-Hobby stock. Its electronic games are widely praised. The $46 billion market cap stock is overbought, though, as the long-term Zacks VGM score is D.
Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) : This is a big U.S. memory chipmaker. Both DRAM and NAND memory chip prices are staying aloft. That is keeping the Zacks #1 Rank on for this $32 billion in market cap stock. The long-term Zacks VGM score is A.
Key Global Macro—
During the week, preliminary Eurozone purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), the German ZEW investor confidence indexes, and the German IFO business confidence indexes come out.
These should provide soundings on European growth momentum to mid-August.
On Monday, the 7-day repo reference rate in Argentina, the monetary policy rate there, is set to start at a whopping 26.25%.
On Tuesday, Indonesia’s reverse repo rate is due to be reset too. The prior rate is at 4.75%.
The unemployment rate in Taiwan is at 3.78%. New figures come out.
The important ZEW indexes come out—only good news looks on tap for Europe and Germany…
The German ZEW current conditions could go up from 86.4 to 87.0. German economic sentiment could go from 17.5 to 18.0.
The Eurozone ZEW current conditions index could go up to 35.6 from 37.0. The Eurozone economic sentiment index could go from 17.5 to 18.0
Mexico’s revised, seasonally-adjusted GDP growth rate (in q/q terms) looks to be a modest +0.5%. In y/y terms, the proxy GDP growth is +2.3% now.
On Wednesday, the composite Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) comes out. Look for 55.7 last time to rise to 56.0 this time.
The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI may get to 57.0. It’s services PMI may get to 55.6.
For comparison purposes, Germany’s manufacturing PMI was at 58.1. The services PMI was at 53.1.
The Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Texas.
On Thursday, the U.S. manufacturing PMI comes out. The prior reading here was 53.3.
U.S. new home sales come out. Look for June’s 610K to go to July’s 590K.
U.S. initial claims looks excellent at 232K.
The U.K.’s preliminary GDP growth data comes out. In y/y terms, it has been at +1.7%.
The Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Policy Symposium kicks off.
On Friday, Germany’s IFO Business Climate, Current Conditions, and Expectations indexes hit the tape.
Germany’s IFO Business Climate at 116 could get to 116.5. Current Conditions at 125.4 could get to 125.6. Expectations at 107.3 could get to 107.5).
U.S. durable goods orders come out. Ex-transport may go up +0.7% m/m.