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Target Q2 Earnings Preview: Key Trends Investors Should Watch

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Key Takeaways

  • Target Q2 sales are projected at $24.91B, down 2.1% year over year.
  • Earnings are expected at $2.09 per share, a decline of 18.7% from last year.
  • Digital growth and supply-chain gains may offset weak traffic and margin headwinds.

The countdown is on for Target Corporation’s (TGT - Free Report) second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings release, set for Aug. 20, before the market opens.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues stands at $24.91 billion, indicating a decline of 2.1% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, earnings are projected at $2.09 per share, suggesting a drop of 18.7% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has been revised upward by four cents over the past seven days.

Target has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 3.2%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 19.8%. 
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What the Zacks Model Predicts About TGT

As investors prepare for TGT’s second-quarter announcement, the question of earnings beat or miss looms. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Target this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Target has a Zacks Rank #3 but an Earnings ESP of -5.26%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter
 

Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Target Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Target Corporation Quote

What’s Shaping Target’s Q2 Earnings?

Target’s synergistic approach, combining a strong brand presence, a diverse product portfolio and expanding e-commerce capabilities, is likely to have contributed to second-quarter performance. Strategic initiatives such as scaling its third-party marketplace, Target Plus, and investments in AI-driven innovation reinforce its growth ambitions. Operational efficiencies achieved through supply-chain improvements and store-level optimization are also expected to support results.

The company’s ongoing investment in digitization is another driver. Enhanced services such as same-day delivery, Drive Up, and curbside pickup continue to resonate with customers seeking convenience. These efforts are likely to have strengthened omnichannel adoption and improved digital penetration. Beyond core retail operations, Target is also diversifying through high-margin platforms such as Roundel, its advertising business, while the expanding Target Circle has deepened customer engagement and contributed to growth.

While these initiatives raise optimism, challenges remain. Target has been grappling with weakening store traffic and declining comparable sales, signaling softer consumer engagement in its core physical retail channel. Lower spending per visit and pressured transaction volumes remain concerning. At the same time, margin headwinds from any markdown activity, rising digital fulfillment expenses and lingering tariff exposure are likely to have weighed on margins.

We expect comparable sales to decrease 3.3%, with the average transaction amount and number of transactions anticipated to drop 1.3% and 2%, respectively. For the quarter, we foresee an operating margin contraction of 110 basis points.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at 91 cents, implying a 16.7% year-over-year decline. 

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues stands at $661.6 million, which indicates an increase of 14.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2%, on average.

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.35% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. FIVE’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $997.3 million, which suggests a 20.2% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Five Below’s second-quarter earnings is pinned at 61 cents a share, up 13% from the year-ago quarter. FIVE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 42.3%, on average.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.06% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. BURL’s top line is expected to advance year over year when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.64 billion, which implies a 7% jump from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Five Below’s second-quarter earnings stands at $1.27 per share, calling for 5.8% growth from the year-ago quarter. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.

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