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Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Down 6.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Domino's Pizza (DPZ - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Domino's Pizza due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Domino's Q2 Earnings Miss, Revenues Beat Estimates

Domino's reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. Its earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while revenues beat the same.

In the fiscal second quarter, the company saw revenue growth supported by several key factors. In the United States, both delivery and carryout channels experienced gains, helping the brand capture additional market share within the competitive pizza quick-service restaurant segment. The company completed its rollout across the two largest food delivery aggregators, which expanded customer reach and boosted order volumes.

DPZ's Q2 Earnings & Revenue Discussion

In the quarter, Domino's reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.81, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.93. The bottom line also declined 5.5% from $4.03 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues of $1,145.1 million beat the consensus mark of $1,144 million. Moreover, the top line increased 4.3% on a year-over-year basis. This upside can be attributed to strong contributions from U.S. franchise advertising and higher supply-chain revenues. 

In second-quarter fiscal 2025, Domino's had 178 net store openings.

DPZ’s Other Metrics

Global retail sales (excluding foreign currency impact) rose 5.6% on a year-over-year basis. This upside was driven by a year-over-year increase in international (6%) and U.S. store sales (5.1%).

Comps at Domino’s domestic stores (including company-owned and franchise stores) rose 3.4% year over year. We estimated the metric to increase 6.7% year over year.

At domestic company-owned stores, Domino’s comps increased 2.6% compared with the 4.5% rise reported a year ago.

Domestic franchise store comps rose 3.4% compared with a 4.8% increase reported in the prior-year quarter.

Comps at international stores, excluding foreign currency translation, rose 2.4% compared with a 2.1% improvement reported in the prior-year quarter. We estimated the metric to increase 1% year over year.

DPZ’s Q2 Margins

In the fiscal second quarter, Domino’s gross margin expanded 70 basis points (bps) year over year to 40.1%. However, U.S. company-owned store gross margin contracted 200 bps year over year to 15.6%. This downside can be attributed to the increase in the company’s food basket pricing to stores and higher insurance costs.

Balance Sheet of DPZ

As of June 15, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $272.9 million compared with $186.1 million as of Dec. 29, 2024. Long-term debt (less current portion) at the end of the fiscal second quarter totaled $3.83 billion, which was in line with fiscal 2024-end. Inventory amounted to $69.7 million compared with $70.9 million as of Dec. 31, 2024.

Capital expenditure at the end of the fiscal second quarter totaled $32.2 million, down from $43.7 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

During the reported quarter, the company repurchased 315,696 shares for an aggregated cost of $150 million. As of June 15, 2025, DPZ stated the availability of $614.3 million under its repurchase program.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Domino's Pizza has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Domino's Pizza has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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