A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AGNC Investment (AGNC Quick QuoteAGNC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AGNC Investment due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

AGNC Investment Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Book Value Declines Y/Y

AGNC Investment's second-quarter 2025 net spread and dollar roll income per common share (excluding estimated "catch-up" premium amortization benefit) of 38 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents. The bottom line declined from 53 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted net interest and dollar roll income of $457 million moved down 5.2% from the year-ago quarter.

The company reported a second-quarter comprehensive loss per common share of 13 cents, relatively flat from the year-ago quarter.

Results were adversely impacted by a decline in tangible net book value per share (BVPS) and net interest spread. Nonetheless, a rise in average asset yield on the portfolio was positive.

Inside Headlines

Net interest income (NII) was $162 million against net interest expenses of $3 million in the prior-year quarter. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 36.2%.

AGNC Investment's average asset yield on its portfolio was 4.87% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 4.69% in the second quarter of 2024.

The combined weighted average cost of funds, inclusive of interest rate swap, was 2.86% compared with 2% in the second quarter of 2024.

The average net interest spread (excluding estimated "catch-up" premium amortization benefits) was 2.01%, down from 2.69% in the year-ago quarter.

As of June 30, 2025, the average tangible net book value "at risk" leverage ratio was 7.6X, up from 7.4X from the prior-year quarter.

In the second quarter, the company's investment portfolio bore an average actual constant prepayment rate of 7.8%, down from 9.2% in the year-ago quarter.

As of June 30, 2025, tangible net BVPS was $7.81, down 7% on a year-over-year basis.

The economic return on tangible common equity was negative 1% compared with negative 0.9% in the year-ago quarter. This included a dividend per share of 36 cents and a decline of 44 cents in tangible net BVPS.

As of June 30, 2025, the company’s investment portfolio aggregated $82.3 billion. This included $73.3 billion of Agency mortgage-backed securities, $8.3 billion net forward purchases/(sales) of Agency MBS in the "to-be-announced" market ("TBA securities"), and $0.7 billion of CRT and non-Agency securities and other mortgage credit investments.

Balance Sheet Position

As of June 30, 2025, AGNC’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $656 million, down 44.2% from the prior quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a flat trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, AGNC Investment has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

AGNC Investment has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.