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Can J&J Navigate Stelara, Talc Suits, Tariff & Other Headwinds?
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Key Takeaways
Stelara's patent loss led to a 42.7% sales decline in Q2 2025, putting pressure on J&J's earnings.
Medicare Part D redesign is expected to cut J&J's 2025 sales by about $2 billion.
J&J faces 62,000 talc lawsuits and China MedTech pressure but maintains growth outlook.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) faces several challenges, like potential losses from expiring drug patents, ongoing legal battles related to its talc powder and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Here, we discuss the various headwinds that J&J faces and see if the drug and medical devices giant is well-equipped to navigate them.
Stelara LOE and Medicare Part D Redesign Hurting J&J’s Sales
J&J lost U.S. patent exclusivity for its multibillion-dollar product Stelara in 2025. Several biosimilar versions of Stelara have been launched in the United States in 2025. According to patent settlements and license agreements, Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) ,Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA - Free Report) /Alvotech, Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz and some other companies have already launched Stelara biosimilars this year.
The launch of generics by Amgen, Teva and other companies is significantly eroding Stelara’s sales and hurting J&J’s sales and profits in 2025. Stelara sales declined 42.7% in the second quarter of 2025. Stelara LOE negatively impacted the Innovative Medicine segment’s growth by 1170 basis points in the second quarter.
Stelara biosimilar competition is expected to accelerate throughout 2025 as the number of biosimilar entrants increases. Stelara sales are expected to come down from almost $11 billion in 2023 to around $2.7 billion in 2027, per our estimates.
In addition, sales in 2025 are being hurt by the impact of the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among other measures, the IRA requires the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to effectively set prices for certain single-source drugs and biologics reimbursed under Medicare Part B and Part D.
In August 2023, the HHS selected J&J’s drugs, Xarelto, Stelara and Imbruvica as one of the first 10 medicines subject to government-set prices. J&J expects a negative impact of approximately $2 billion in sales due to the Medicare Part D redesign in 2025. The Part D redesign is mainly hurting sales of drugs like Stelara, Tremfya, Erleada and pulmonary hypertension drugs.
JNJ’s Talc Lawsuits, Tariffs and MedTech China are Overhangs
J&J faces more than 62,000 lawsuits for its talc-based products, primarily baby powders. The lawsuits allege that its talc products contain asbestos, which caused many women to develop ovarian cancer. In April, a bankruptcy court in Texas rejected J&J’s proposed bankruptcy plan to settle its talc lawsuits after a two-week trial in Houston. J&J will go back to the traditional tort system to fight the lawsuits individually, with its bankruptcy strategy to settle the lawsuits failing for the third time.
The uncertainty around tariffs and trade production measures has muted economic growth. President Trump has once again threatened to impose heavy tariffs, as high as 250%, on pharmaceutical imports. Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports are aimed at pushing American pharma companies to shift pharmaceutical production back to the United States, primarily from European and Asian countries. Trump has said that drugmakers have about one to one and a half years to bring production back to the United States before the new tariffs are imposed.
In the MedTech segment, though sales improved in the second quarter from first-quarter levels, J&J continues to face headwinds in China. Sales in China are being hurt by the impact of the volume-based procurement (VBP) program. VBP is a government-driven cost-containment effort in China.
Can J&J Navigate the Challenges?
The Stelara patent cliff and the potential impact of Part D redesign are the most significant headwinds in 2025. The uncertainty around the talc lawsuits and pharma tariffs also lingers. However, the company looks quite confident that it will be able to navigate these challenges. J&J recorded a strong operational performance in the first half of 2025, backed by double-digit growth in revenues from key brands and contributions from new launches.
J&J expects operational sales growth in both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments to be higher in the second half than in the first, with growth expected to accelerate from 2026 onward.
As regards the impact from tariffs, on the second-quarter conference call, J&J lowered the potential impact from tariffs from $400 million to $200 million. J&J has also committed to boosting manufacturing in the United States and has a plan to invest $55 billion over the next four years to ensure that all medicines consumed in the United States are manufactured domestically.
JNJ’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
J&J’s shares have outperformed the industry year to date. The stock has risen 25.7% in the year-to-date period against a 0.3% decline of the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, J&J is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 16.0 forward earnings, higher than 14.56 for the industry. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 15.65.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has risen from $10.83 per share to $10.86 per share for 2025 and from $11.33 per share to $11.36 per share over the past 30 days.
Image: Bigstock
Can J&J Navigate Stelara, Talc Suits, Tariff & Other Headwinds?
Key Takeaways
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) faces several challenges, like potential losses from expiring drug patents, ongoing legal battles related to its talc powder and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Here, we discuss the various headwinds that J&J faces and see if the drug and medical devices giant is well-equipped to navigate them.
Stelara LOE and Medicare Part D Redesign Hurting J&J’s Sales
J&J lost U.S. patent exclusivity for its multibillion-dollar product Stelara in 2025. Several biosimilar versions of Stelara have been launched in the United States in 2025. According to patent settlements and license agreements, Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) ,Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA - Free Report) /Alvotech, Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz and some other companies have already launched Stelara biosimilars this year.
The launch of generics by Amgen, Teva and other companies is significantly eroding Stelara’s sales and hurting J&J’s sales and profits in 2025. Stelara sales declined 42.7% in the second quarter of 2025. Stelara LOE negatively impacted the Innovative Medicine segment’s growth by 1170 basis points in the second quarter.
Stelara biosimilar competition is expected to accelerate throughout 2025 as the number of biosimilar entrants increases. Stelara sales are expected to come down from almost $11 billion in 2023 to around $2.7 billion in 2027, per our estimates.
In addition, sales in 2025 are being hurt by the impact of the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among other measures, the IRA requires the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to effectively set prices for certain single-source drugs and biologics reimbursed under Medicare Part B and Part D.
In August 2023, the HHS selected J&J’s drugs, Xarelto, Stelara and Imbruvica as one of the first 10 medicines subject to government-set prices. J&J expects a negative impact of approximately $2 billion in sales due to the Medicare Part D redesign in 2025. The Part D redesign is mainly hurting sales of drugs like Stelara, Tremfya, Erleada and pulmonary hypertension drugs.
JNJ’s Talc Lawsuits, Tariffs and MedTech China are Overhangs
J&J faces more than 62,000 lawsuits for its talc-based products, primarily baby powders. The lawsuits allege that its talc products contain asbestos, which caused many women to develop ovarian cancer. In April, a bankruptcy court in Texas rejected J&J’s proposed bankruptcy plan to settle its talc lawsuits after a two-week trial in Houston. J&J will go back to the traditional tort system to fight the lawsuits individually, with its bankruptcy strategy to settle the lawsuits failing for the third time.
The uncertainty around tariffs and trade production measures has muted economic growth. President Trump has once again threatened to impose heavy tariffs, as high as 250%, on pharmaceutical imports. Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports are aimed at pushing American pharma companies to shift pharmaceutical production back to the United States, primarily from European and Asian countries. Trump has said that drugmakers have about one to one and a half years to bring production back to the United States before the new tariffs are imposed.
In the MedTech segment, though sales improved in the second quarter from first-quarter levels, J&J continues to face headwinds in China. Sales in China are being hurt by the impact of the volume-based procurement (VBP) program. VBP is a government-driven cost-containment effort in China.
Can J&J Navigate the Challenges?
The Stelara patent cliff and the potential impact of Part D redesign are the most significant headwinds in 2025. The uncertainty around the talc lawsuits and pharma tariffs also lingers. However, the company looks quite confident that it will be able to navigate these challenges. J&J recorded a strong operational performance in the first half of 2025, backed by double-digit growth in revenues from key brands and contributions from new launches.
J&J expects operational sales growth in both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments to be higher in the second half than in the first, with growth expected to accelerate from 2026 onward.
As regards the impact from tariffs, on the second-quarter conference call, J&J lowered the potential impact from tariffs from $400 million to $200 million. J&J has also committed to boosting manufacturing in the United States and has a plan to invest $55 billion over the next four years to ensure that all medicines consumed in the United States are manufactured domestically.
JNJ’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
J&J’s shares have outperformed the industry year to date. The stock has risen 25.7% in the year-to-date period against a 0.3% decline of the industry.
From a valuation standpoint, J&J is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 16.0 forward earnings, higher than 14.56 for the industry. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 15.65.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has risen from $10.83 per share to $10.86 per share for 2025 and from $11.33 per share to $11.36 per share over the past 30 days.
J&J has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.