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Matador (MTDR) Down 8.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Matador Resources (MTDR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Matador due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Matador Resources Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Matador Resources Q2 Earnings Beat on Higher Production Volumes

Matador Resources Company reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29. The bottom line declined from the year-ago quarter’s $2.05.

Total revenues of $895.3 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $905 million. However, the top line increased from the year-ago quarter’s $847.1 million.

Better-than-expected quarterly earnings were driven by MTDR's record total production volumes and lower operating expenses. The positives were partially offset by lower commodity price realizations.

Upstream Business in Q2

Matador Resources is primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, and production activities in the United States. The company’s overall financial performance is heavily dependent on the oil and gas pricing environment. Most of MTDR’s production comprises oil (59% of total second-quarter production), making this commodity’s price the prime factor in determining the company’s earnings.

The average daily oil production was 122,875 barrels, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the anticipated figure. The company’s record production volumes exceeded the guidance range due to the exceptional performance of both newly commissioned wells and its existing base production.

Let us take a look at the average commodity sales price, along with production.

Average Sales Price of Commodities

The average sales price for oil (without realized derivatives) was $64.34 per barrel, down from $81.20 a year ago. The commodity price was also lower than our projection of $65.55 per barrel. The price of natural gas was $2.05 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), up from $2 in the year-ago quarter. However, the figure came in lower than our estimate of $3.28 Mcf.

Increasing Production

Matador reported oil production of 122,875 barrels per day (B/D), up from 95,488 B/D in the prior-year quarter. The figure beat our estimate of 114,908.8 B/D. Natural gas production was recorded at 516.8 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/D), up from 388.9 MMcf/D recorded a year ago. The reported figure surpassed our estimate of 487.3 MMcf/D.

The rise in total average production can be attributed to the outperformance of the wells that were brought into production for sales in the last quarter of 2024.

Total oil equivalent production in the second quarter was 209,013 BOE/D, reflecting a 30.4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s 160,305 BOE/D. The figure was also above our projection of 206,955.1 BOE/D.

Operating Expenses

MTDR’s plant and other midstream services’ operating expenses decreased to $2.40 per BOE from the year-earlier level of $2.55. Our estimate for the same was pinned at $2.68.

Lease operating costs increased to $5.56 per BOE from $5.42 a year ago. Our projection for the metric was pinned at $5.45 per BOE. Production taxes, transportation and processing costs declined to $4.35 per BOE from $5.27 in the year-ago quarter. Our projection for the metric was pinned at $5.31 per BOE.

Overall, total operating expenses per BOE were $29.91, lower than the prior-year figure of $30.64 and also below our estimate of $30.54.

Balance Sheet & Capital Spending

As of June 30, 2025, MTDR had cash and restricted cash of $86.8 million and a long-term debt of $3,286 million. In the second quarter, the company spent $367.1 million on well drilling, completion and equipment.

Outlook

For 2025, Matador Resources expects average daily oil equivalent production to be 200,000-205,000 Boe/d. This implies a 1.3% increase from its previous guidance. The company also expects average daily total production for the third quarter of 2025 to be 198,500-201,000 Boe/d. The company has also reiterated its total 2025 capital expenditure forecast of $1.30-$1.55 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, Matador has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Matador has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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