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Progressive Posts Impressive July Results: Time to Buy the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Progressive's July EPS rose 34% to $1.85, with revenues up 18% to $6.9 billion.
  • Net premiums written increased 11%, driven by strong business performance.
  • Policies in force grew across auto, property, and commercial segments.

The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) reported solid July 2025 results, wherein the top and bottom lines increased year over year. Net premiums written improved 11%, driven by the strong performance of operating businesses. Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — improved 270 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter to 85.3.

PGR is one of the country’s largest auto insurance groups, the largest seller of motorcycle and boat policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. This insurer is set to deliver steady profitability, given its solid market presence, a convincing portfolio of products and services, and underwriting and operational expertise.

Sneak Peek Into PGR’s July Results

PGR’s July 2025 earnings per share of $1.85 improved 34% year over year. Operating revenues increased 15.5% to $7.4 billion.

Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 15% from the year-ago month to 36.4 million. Special Lines improved 8% to 6.9 million. In the Personal Auto segment, Direct Auto increased 19% year over year to 15.4 million, whereas Agency Auto grew 15% to 10.5 million. The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 7%.

Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 7% to 1.2 million. 

What’s Driving Progressive?

Being a leading auto insurer, PGR has a compelling product portfolio, which, coupled with prudent underwriting, helps it maintain healthy policies in force and a solid retention ratio. This, in turn, drives better premiums. Policy life expectancy (PLE), a measure of customer retention, has improved in the last few years across all business lines. Distinctive new auto insurance options, along with competitive pricing, should help sustain improvement in PLE.

As part of its growth strategy, Progressive is prioritizing auto bundles, lowering exposure to risky properties and increasing segmentation through product rollouts. The company remains focused on increasing the share of auto and home bundled households, investing in mobile applications, and rolling out products in a larger number of states. 

Progressive relies on technology to streamline operations, improve customer service and offer competitive pricing. The insurance company is heavily investing in digital transformation and AI.

The company’s solid cash flow ensures continuous investment in growth initiatives, including digitalization to improve margins. PGR has been enhancing its book value and lowering leverage, banking on operational expertise. Though its leverage compares unfavorably with the industry average, the times interest earned outperforms the industry.

Progressive, one of the leading auto insurers in the U.S., benefits from a diversified product portfolio and disciplined underwriting practices, which underpin strong policy retention and premium growth. Policy life expectancy (PLE), a key measure of customer loyalty, has steadily improved across all business lines, supported by innovative offerings and competitive pricing that continue to strengthen customer relationships.

Progressive is seen as a leader in product, service and distribution innovation, especially in the Personal Auto segment. Rate increase, higher new personal auto applications, driven by higher advertising spend, an increase in non-rate actions to drive growth and a strong independent agents' network continue to drive the performance of Personal Auto. The Personal Auto segment thus remains a long-term growth driver for Progressive, fueling both premium volume and profitability. 

Aligned with its growth strategy, Progressive is prioritizing bundled products, carefully reducing exposure to high-risk properties, and leveraging segmentation through tailored product rollouts. Initiatives to expand auto-home bundled households, increase mobile app engagement and broaden product availability across additional states are further strengthening its competitive position.

Technology is central to Progressive’s model, enabling operational efficiency, enhanced customer service and sustained pricing advantages. The company continues to invest significantly in digital transformation and AI, supported by strong operating cash flows that fund these initiatives and improve margins. At the same time, Progressive is enhancing book value and gradually lowering leverage. Although leverage levels remain above industry averages, its superior times-interest-earned ratio underscores robust debt-servicing ability and financial resilience.

Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on PGR

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has moved 1.3% higher, whereas the same for 2026 has moved 0.8% north in the same time frame.

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Progressive’s Growth Story

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Progressive’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $17.48 per share, indicating an increase of 24.4% from the year-ago reported figure on 16.5% higher revenues of $87.5 billion. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $16.62 per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.9% on 9.9% higher revenues of $96.1 billion.

The long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 9.7%, better than the industry average of 7%. It has a Growth Story B.

PGR’s YTD Performance

Shares of Progressive have gained 5.5% year to date, underperforming the industry’s increase of 6.5%, the Finance sector’s rise of 10.6% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s gain of 8.9% in the said time frame..

Progressive vs. Industry, Sector, S&P 500

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Progressive shares are trading above the 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.

Shares of Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) and Travelers Companies (TRV - Free Report) , two other auto insurers, have gained 10.8% and 13.9%, respectively, in the said time frame. 

Travelers holds a leading position in the U.S. auto, homeowners, and commercial property-casualty insurance markets. Its solid market standing and well-executed growth strategies are set to support ongoing expansion across both personal and commercial segments. The company is well-positioned for long-term growth, driven by high customer retention, strategic pricing improvements, rising new business volumes and positive momentum in renewal premiums.

Allstate is refining its strategy by focusing on its core strengths and exiting underperforming segments. The company projects growth in total Property-Liability policies in force this year, supported by higher auto insurance renewal rates and steady increases in new business. Backed by rising premium income, a growing protection services division and continued operational streamlining, Allstate is well-positioned to achieve sustained long-term growth.

Average Target Price for PGR Suggests Solid Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by 20 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $291.70 per share. The average suggests a potential 16.4% upside from the last closing price.

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PGR Shares Are Expensive 

PGR is currently expensive. It is trading at a P/B multiple of 4.54, higher than the industry average of 1.62. Given its market-leading presence, growth prospects, rising estimates and better return on invested capital, its premium valuation is justified.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Progressive’s Favorable Return on Capital

Return on equity for the trailing 12 months was 35.4%, comparing favorably with the industry’s 7.7%. This reflects its efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds. 
 

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Also, return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing over the last few quarters as the company raised its capital investment over the same time frame. This reflects PGR’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 21.9%, better than the industry average of 5.9%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What Should You Do With PGR Stock?

Progressive’s leadership position, better pricing and prudent underwriting standards should drive its shares. Optimistic growth projections, positive analyst sentiment, an impressive dividend history and a VGM Score of B instill confidence in PGR.

Thus, despite the premium valuation, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock stands a fair chance to be investors’ favorite and, therefore, is worth adding to their portfolios. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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