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ASML Sees 30% EUV Growth in 2025: Is Demand Sustainable Through 2026?

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Key Takeaways

  • ASML projects EUV sales growth of about 30% in 2025, driven by AI and high-performance computing.
  • New NXE:3800E tools improve efficiency, boosting chipmaker productivity and margin potential.
  • 2026 visibility remains uncertain amid tariffs, export restrictions and geopolitical tensions.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML - Free Report) is set to deliver another year of solid growth, with its Extreme Ultraviolet (“EUV”) sales anticipated to increase about 30% in 2025. This optimistic expectation is driven by chipmakers expanding production for advanced logic and memory chips used in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

ASML Holding’s latest EUV tools, such as the NXE:3800E, are helping customers improve efficiency by replacing complex multi-patterning steps with simpler EUV exposures. This raises productivity and supports margin expansion for chipmakers.

All this is fueling the demand for ASML’s advanced lithography equipment and high revenue growth expectations for 2025. However, the outlook for 2026 is less certain. During the last earnings call, management acknowledged that while the long-term demand for advanced lithography remains strong, visibility for 2026 is clouded.

Much of this uncertainty comes from external pressures. Tariff uncertainties, export restrictions and broader geopolitical tensions are making customers cautious about the timing of new capital investments. ASML Holding has already seen adjustments to its backlog as some clients reassess orders in response to these challenges.

Nonetheless, long-term demand drivers remain encouraging. AI adoption is accelerating, and DRAM manufacturers are increasing EUV layers in their latest nodes. High NA EUV systems, currently being qualified, should eventually expand the company’s market opportunity.

For now, 2025 should be another strong year of growth, but whether ASML Holding can sustain the same momentum into 2026 depends on macro stability and customer spending patterns. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues indicates year-over-year growth of 23.8%, while that for 2026 signifies a decline of 0.9%.

How Are ASML’s Rivals Positioned Amid Export Restrictions?

Export restrictions on advanced semiconductor chips and equipment have been impacting every company in the space, including Applied Materials (AMAT - Free Report) and Lam Research (LRCX - Free Report) .

Applied Materials supplies equipment used in chip fabrication, including deposition and etching tools that are essential for both advanced and mature nodes. While it also faces export limits, AMAT has a broader product range that serves older technology nodes still in demand in China.

Meanwhile, Lam Research specializes in wafer etching and cleaning tools. Like ASML, Lam Research is exposed to U.S. export policies, but it can ship tools for legacy nodes that China continues to ramp up.

ASML’s Share Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of ASML Holding have risen 8.9% year to date compared with the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s gain of 12.5%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, ASML trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.89, significantly higher than the sector’s average of 6.66.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASML Holding’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of approximately 35.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Estimates for 2025 earnings have been revised upward in the past 60 days, while those for 2026 have moved north over the last 30 days.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ASML Holding currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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