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Chipotle vs. CAVA: Which Fast-Casual Stock Has the Edge Right Now?
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Key Takeaways
Chipotle's menu innovation, catering pilots, and loyalty upgrades support traffic and brand relevance.
CAVA's unit volumes above $3M highlight strong new-store productivity and Mediterranean category appeal.
Chipotle's nearly $1B in buybacks and fortress balance sheet strengthen its shareholder value creation.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) and CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) represent two distinct yet compelling approaches to the fast-casual dining opportunity. Chipotle operates as a global leader in Mexican-inspired cuisine, leveraging scale, menu innovation, and operational efficiency to drive growth, while CAVA is pioneering the Mediterranean category with a differentiated brand, strong unit economics, and rapid national expansion.
The comparison between these two restaurant players becomes particularly relevant in today’s market environment, where investors are closely examining consumer discretionary stocks for resilience, profitability and long-term scalability. Recent earnings results from both companies showcased contrasting dynamics: Chipotle faced near-term comp headwinds but demonstrated strong financial flexibility, while CAVA delivered robust revenue growth and new-unit productivity that exceeded expectations.
The broader U.S. fast-casual market remains resilient in 2025, fueled by consumer demand for customizable, fresh, and flavorful meals at accessible price points. Digital ordering, loyalty rewards and menu innovation are proving to be critical battlegrounds, while new store productivity and catering opportunities are reshaping growth trajectories.
Trends such as plant-forward eating, regional flavors, and experiential formats are influencing consumer behavior, while broader dynamics like inflation, shifting value perceptions, and international expansion are impacting industry strategies. Despite headwinds around traffic volatility and cost inflation, the fast-casual sector remains one of the fastest-growing corners of the restaurant industry.
Against this dynamic backdrop, both Chipotle and CAVA are aggressively adapting their models to capture future opportunities. But for investors, the central question remains: Which fast-casual stock offers the more compelling opportunity now? Let’s take a closer look at both.
The Case for CMG
Chipotle continues to focus on its premium-positioned, high-throughput model targeting consumers seeking customizable, fresh, and high-quality meals. The company is executing on its strategy of disciplined unit expansion, menu innovation, and operational efficiency to reinforce its leadership in fast casual.
With a long-term goal of 7,000 North American restaurants, Chipotle is steadily growing its footprint, supported by strong cash reserves and no debt. Initiatives such as high-efficiency kitchen equipment, catering pilots, and loyalty program enhancements are designed to improve guest engagement and drive incremental sales. Menu innovation, including the recent Honey Chicken and Adobo Ranch launches, is also strengthening brand relevance and traffic trends.
However, Chipotle faces near-term margin pressure from softer traffic and higher promotional activity. In the second quarter of 2025, comparable sales declined 4%, and restaurant-level margins contracted 150 basis points year over year to 27.4%. While comps turned positive exiting the quarter, consumer sensitivity to pricing and inflationary cost headwinds may constrain near-term earnings momentum.
Longer term, Chipotle’s scale advantages, fortress balance sheet, and proven unit economics position it well for sustained growth. The company’s international expansion, growing digital ecosystem, and ability to unlock new revenue streams, such as catering, provide additional optionality.
The Case for CAVA
CAVA continues to position itself as the category leader in Mediterranean fast casual, leveraging a differentiated brand identity and strong unit economics to drive expansion. The company is executing on its strategy of disciplined new restaurant growth, menu innovation, and enhanced customer engagement through digital and loyalty initiatives.
With 398 restaurants at the end of the second quarter and plans for 68–70 net new openings in 2025, CAVA remains on track toward its long-term target of 1,000 units by 2032. Early results from its 2025 restaurant class are encouraging, with average unit volumes trending above $3 million compared to a $2.3 million benchmark. This outperformance underscores the scalability of its model and the appeal of its Mediterranean offerings across diverse markets.
At the same time, the company is expanding culinary variety through tests of chicken shawarma and salmon, while also extending into adjacent categories with snack and dessert occasions anchored by its popular pita chips. The reimagined loyalty program and creative marketing campaigns, such as “Peter Chip,” are deepening guest relationships and reinforcing CAVA’s brand positioning.
However, CAVA faces margin pressures from inflationary costs and wage growth, which may constrain near-term profitability despite strong sales momentum.
Still, CAVA’s strong balance sheet — with $386 million in cash, no debt, and access to additional liquidity — provides the flexibility to fund growth while maintaining financial resilience. With robust new-unit economics, white space for expansion, and category leadership in Mediterranean fast casual, CAVA is positioned to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value.
How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for CMG & CAVA?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2025 sales and earnings per share (EPS) suggests year-over-year increases of 7.2% and 8%, respectively. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2025 have remained unchanged at $1.21.
CMG Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2025 sales and EPS suggests year-over-year increases of 22.9% and 33.3%, respectively. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2025 have declined 3.5%.
CAVA Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of CMG & CAVA
Chipotle stock has declined 16.1% in the past three months, underperforming its industry's fall of 4% and the S&P 500’s growth of 9.3%. Meanwhile, CAVA shares have plunged 20.5% in the same time.
CMG & CAVA Stock Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Chipotle is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.37X, above the industry average of 3.77X over the last year. CAVA’s forward 12-month P/S multiple sits at 5.61X over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End Notes
Chipotle emerges as the more compelling choice over CAVA at this stage, supported by its unmatched scale, operational discipline, and growing international runway. The company’s structural strengths — including a fortress balance sheet, robust cash generation, and accelerating shareholder returns through nearly $1 billion in buybacks year to date — underscore its ability to create long-term value even amid a challenging consumer backdrop.
Chipotle’s earnings stability, unchanged 2025 estimate trends, and proven unit-level profitability highlight its resilience, while the company’s catering pilots, digital ecosystem, and planned international expansion provide additional levers for growth. By contrast, while CAVA offers a high-growth story with strong new-store productivity and Mediterranean category leadership, its steeper valuation, downward estimate revisions, and rising cost pressures limit its near-term appeal.
With a more favorable combination of scale, financial flexibility, international optionality, and consistent capital returns, Chipotle appears better positioned to deliver durable shareholder value in the fast-casual dining cycle.
Image: Bigstock
Chipotle vs. CAVA: Which Fast-Casual Stock Has the Edge Right Now?
Key Takeaways
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) and CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) represent two distinct yet compelling approaches to the fast-casual dining opportunity. Chipotle operates as a global leader in Mexican-inspired cuisine, leveraging scale, menu innovation, and operational efficiency to drive growth, while CAVA is pioneering the Mediterranean category with a differentiated brand, strong unit economics, and rapid national expansion.
The comparison between these two restaurant players becomes particularly relevant in today’s market environment, where investors are closely examining consumer discretionary stocks for resilience, profitability and long-term scalability. Recent earnings results from both companies showcased contrasting dynamics: Chipotle faced near-term comp headwinds but demonstrated strong financial flexibility, while CAVA delivered robust revenue growth and new-unit productivity that exceeded expectations.
The broader U.S. fast-casual market remains resilient in 2025, fueled by consumer demand for customizable, fresh, and flavorful meals at accessible price points. Digital ordering, loyalty rewards and menu innovation are proving to be critical battlegrounds, while new store productivity and catering opportunities are reshaping growth trajectories.
Trends such as plant-forward eating, regional flavors, and experiential formats are influencing consumer behavior, while broader dynamics like inflation, shifting value perceptions, and international expansion are impacting industry strategies. Despite headwinds around traffic volatility and cost inflation, the fast-casual sector remains one of the fastest-growing corners of the restaurant industry.
Against this dynamic backdrop, both Chipotle and CAVA are aggressively adapting their models to capture future opportunities. But for investors, the central question remains: Which fast-casual stock offers the more compelling opportunity now? Let’s take a closer look at both.
The Case for CMG
Chipotle continues to focus on its premium-positioned, high-throughput model targeting consumers seeking customizable, fresh, and high-quality meals. The company is executing on its strategy of disciplined unit expansion, menu innovation, and operational efficiency to reinforce its leadership in fast casual.
With a long-term goal of 7,000 North American restaurants, Chipotle is steadily growing its footprint, supported by strong cash reserves and no debt. Initiatives such as high-efficiency kitchen equipment, catering pilots, and loyalty program enhancements are designed to improve guest engagement and drive incremental sales. Menu innovation, including the recent Honey Chicken and Adobo Ranch launches, is also strengthening brand relevance and traffic trends.
However, Chipotle faces near-term margin pressure from softer traffic and higher promotional activity. In the second quarter of 2025, comparable sales declined 4%, and restaurant-level margins contracted 150 basis points year over year to 27.4%. While comps turned positive exiting the quarter, consumer sensitivity to pricing and inflationary cost headwinds may constrain near-term earnings momentum.
Longer term, Chipotle’s scale advantages, fortress balance sheet, and proven unit economics position it well for sustained growth. The company’s international expansion, growing digital ecosystem, and ability to unlock new revenue streams, such as catering, provide additional optionality.
The Case for CAVA
CAVA continues to position itself as the category leader in Mediterranean fast casual, leveraging a differentiated brand identity and strong unit economics to drive expansion. The company is executing on its strategy of disciplined new restaurant growth, menu innovation, and enhanced customer engagement through digital and loyalty initiatives.
With 398 restaurants at the end of the second quarter and plans for 68–70 net new openings in 2025, CAVA remains on track toward its long-term target of 1,000 units by 2032. Early results from its 2025 restaurant class are encouraging, with average unit volumes trending above $3 million compared to a $2.3 million benchmark. This outperformance underscores the scalability of its model and the appeal of its Mediterranean offerings across diverse markets.
At the same time, the company is expanding culinary variety through tests of chicken shawarma and salmon, while also extending into adjacent categories with snack and dessert occasions anchored by its popular pita chips. The reimagined loyalty program and creative marketing campaigns, such as “Peter Chip,” are deepening guest relationships and reinforcing CAVA’s brand positioning.
However, CAVA faces margin pressures from inflationary costs and wage growth, which may constrain near-term profitability despite strong sales momentum.
Still, CAVA’s strong balance sheet — with $386 million in cash, no debt, and access to additional liquidity — provides the flexibility to fund growth while maintaining financial resilience. With robust new-unit economics, white space for expansion, and category leadership in Mediterranean fast casual, CAVA is positioned to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value.
How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for CMG & CAVA?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2025 sales and earnings per share (EPS) suggests year-over-year increases of 7.2% and 8%, respectively. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2025 have remained unchanged at $1.21.
CMG Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2025 sales and EPS suggests year-over-year increases of 22.9% and 33.3%, respectively. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2025 have declined 3.5%.
CAVA Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of CMG & CAVA
Chipotle stock has declined 16.1% in the past three months, underperforming its industry's fall of 4% and the S&P 500’s growth of 9.3%. Meanwhile, CAVA shares have plunged 20.5% in the same time.
CMG & CAVA Stock Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Chipotle is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.37X, above the industry average of 3.77X over the last year. CAVA’s forward 12-month P/S multiple sits at 5.61X over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End Notes
Chipotle emerges as the more compelling choice over CAVA at this stage, supported by its unmatched scale, operational discipline, and growing international runway. The company’s structural strengths — including a fortress balance sheet, robust cash generation, and accelerating shareholder returns through nearly $1 billion in buybacks year to date — underscore its ability to create long-term value even amid a challenging consumer backdrop.
Chipotle’s earnings stability, unchanged 2025 estimate trends, and proven unit-level profitability highlight its resilience, while the company’s catering pilots, digital ecosystem, and planned international expansion provide additional levers for growth. By contrast, while CAVA offers a high-growth story with strong new-store productivity and Mediterranean category leadership, its steeper valuation, downward estimate revisions, and rising cost pressures limit its near-term appeal.
With a more favorable combination of scale, financial flexibility, international optionality, and consistent capital returns, Chipotle appears better positioned to deliver durable shareholder value in the fast-casual dining cycle.
Both CMG and CAVA carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.