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LLY vs. PFE: Which Pharma Giant Is the Better Pick for Investors?
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Key Takeaways
Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound now drive about half of its revenues, with sales boosted by global launches.
Pfizer's new and acquired drugs generated $4.7B in H1 2025, rising 15% year over year operationally.
PFE trades at a far lower P/E than Lilly, while also offering a 6.9% dividend yield versus LLY's 0.8%.
Eli Lilly & Company (LLY - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) are both large-cap U.S. pharmaceutical giants with diversified drug portfolios and strong R&D pipelines. While Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health with its successful GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, oncology is Pfizer’s forte.
Outside of their key areas, while Lilly is developing and commercializing therapies across oncology, immunology, cardiovascular and neuroscience areas, Pfizer has a solid presence in inflammation and immunology, rare diseases and vaccines.
Both companies have promising R&D pipelines capable of delivering innovative treatments and supporting future growth. But which stock presents a better investment opportunity right now? Let’s dive into their fundamentals, growth outlook and potential challenges to make a well-informed comparison.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has seen tremendous success with its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for only around three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, their sales picked up in the first half of 2025, driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production. The positive trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for several other new drugs over the past couple of years across various therapeutic areas, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla. Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in the second half of 2025.
In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, indicating an impressive year-over-year growth of more than 30%
Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in obesity, diabetes and cancer, with several key mid- and late-stage data readouts expected this year. Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several next-generation candidates currently in clinical development, like orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist. Lilly has announced mixed data from two studies on orforglipron and is now set to file global regulatory applications for this much-awaited oral once-daily pill by the end of this year.
LLY is also working to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced three M&A deals. It acquired Verve Therapeutics to add gene therapies for heart disease to its pipeline. Lilly has also entered into agreements to acquire Scorpion Therapeutics’ oncology drug and SiteOne Therapeutics’ non-opioid pain candidate.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, primarily due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts. In 2025, Lilly expects a mid-to-high single-digit percentage price decline, including U.S. Part D changes.
Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.
Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Novo Nordisk has already filed an application for an oral version of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like CagriSema (a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide) and amycretin (a dual GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist).
Several companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics are also making rapid progress in the development of more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.
The Case for PFE
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. The 2023 acquisition of Seagen further strengthened its position in oncology.
Pfizer’s non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered $4.7 billion in revenues in the first half of 2025, up approximately 15% operationally versus last year.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer expects cost cuts and internal restructuring to deliver savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at around 7%, which is impressive.
Pfizer’s new products/late-stage pipeline candidates and newly acquired products, including those acquired from Seagen, position it strongly for operational growth in 2025 and beyond. Pfizer expects the 2025 to 2030 revenue CAGR to be approximately 6%.
However, Pfizer faces its share of challenges. Though sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty have stabilized in 2025 after declining significantly in the past two years, there is an element of uncertainty related to COVID sales, and they may decline further in future years.
Pfizer also expects a significant impact from the loss of patent exclusivity in the 2026-2030 period, as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, will face patent expirations. Pfizer expects an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion from the Medicare Part D redesign under the IRA, which took effect in the first quarter of 2025 and hurt sales in the first half. Higher-priced drugs, including Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz, are most affected by the IRA.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & PFE?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 37.2% and 75.6%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 have risen from $22.04 per share to $22.81 per share over the past 30 days, while those for 2026 have risen from $30.88 to $31.01 per share over the same timeframe.
LLY Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 0.02% and 0.32%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has risen from $3.07 per share to $3.12 per share for 2025, while that for 2026 has increased from $3.06 per share to $3.09 per share over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & PFE
In the past three months, Lilly’s stock has risen 2.6%, while Pfizer’s stock has rallied 9.4% compared with the industry’s increase of 4.2%
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pfizer looks more attractive than LLY from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, LLY’s shares currently trade at 26.12 forward earnings, much higher than 14.60 for the industry. However, LLY’s stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.54. Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.03 forward earnings, significantly lower than the industry and the stock’s 5-year mean of 10.77.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s dividend yield is 0.8%, while Pfizer's is 6.9%. Lilly’s return on equity of 92.7% is higher than Pfizer’s 21.4%.
Though Lilly clearly has shown more efficient profitability and has stronger growth prospects than Pfizer, it recently lost significant market value due to slightly declining investor confidence in its weight-loss drugs. On the other hand, for Pfizer, with its COVID-related uncertainties diminishing, its revenue volatility is declining. Though Pfizer does not expect strong top-line growth over the next three years due to the loss of exclusivity of several of its key products, it expects EPS growth. Its recent price appreciation, cheaper valuation than Lilly and rising estimates tilt the scales in favor of Pfizer for the near term. We are choosing Pfizer over Lilly only due to the latter’s near-term challenges amid rising competitive pressure.
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LLY vs. PFE: Which Pharma Giant Is the Better Pick for Investors?
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly & Company (LLY - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) are both large-cap U.S. pharmaceutical giants with diversified drug portfolios and strong R&D pipelines. While Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health with its successful GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, oncology is Pfizer’s forte.
Outside of their key areas, while Lilly is developing and commercializing therapies across oncology, immunology, cardiovascular and neuroscience areas, Pfizer has a solid presence in inflammation and immunology, rare diseases and vaccines.
Both companies have promising R&D pipelines capable of delivering innovative treatments and supporting future growth. But which stock presents a better investment opportunity right now? Let’s dive into their fundamentals, growth outlook and potential challenges to make a well-informed comparison.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has seen tremendous success with its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for only around three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, their sales picked up in the first half of 2025, driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production. The positive trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for several other new drugs over the past couple of years across various therapeutic areas, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla. Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in the second half of 2025.
In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, indicating an impressive year-over-year growth of more than 30%
Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in obesity, diabetes and cancer, with several key mid- and late-stage data readouts expected this year. Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several next-generation candidates currently in clinical development, like orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist. Lilly has announced mixed data from two studies on orforglipron and is now set to file global regulatory applications for this much-awaited oral once-daily pill by the end of this year.
LLY is also working to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced three M&A deals. It acquired Verve Therapeutics to add gene therapies for heart disease to its pipeline. Lilly has also entered into agreements to acquire Scorpion Therapeutics’ oncology drug and SiteOne Therapeutics’ non-opioid pain candidate.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, primarily due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts. In 2025, Lilly expects a mid-to-high single-digit percentage price decline, including U.S. Part D changes.
Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.
Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Novo Nordisk has already filed an application for an oral version of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like CagriSema (a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide) and amycretin (a dual GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist).
Several companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics are also making rapid progress in the development of more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.
The Case for PFE
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. The 2023 acquisition of Seagen further strengthened its position in oncology.
Pfizer’s non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered $4.7 billion in revenues in the first half of 2025, up approximately 15% operationally versus last year.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer expects cost cuts and internal restructuring to deliver savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at around 7%, which is impressive.
Pfizer’s new products/late-stage pipeline candidates and newly acquired products, including those acquired from Seagen, position it strongly for operational growth in 2025 and beyond. Pfizer expects the 2025 to 2030 revenue CAGR to be approximately 6%.
However, Pfizer faces its share of challenges. Though sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty have stabilized in 2025 after declining significantly in the past two years, there is an element of uncertainty related to COVID sales, and they may decline further in future years.
Pfizer also expects a significant impact from the loss of patent exclusivity in the 2026-2030 period, as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, will face patent expirations. Pfizer expects an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion from the Medicare Part D redesign under the IRA, which took effect in the first quarter of 2025 and hurt sales in the first half. Higher-priced drugs, including Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz, are most affected by the IRA.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & PFE?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 37.2% and 75.6%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 have risen from $22.04 per share to $22.81 per share over the past 30 days, while those for 2026 have risen from $30.88 to $31.01 per share over the same timeframe.
LLY Estimate Movement
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 0.02% and 0.32%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has risen from $3.07 per share to $3.12 per share for 2025, while that for 2026 has increased from $3.06 per share to $3.09 per share over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & PFE
In the past three months, Lilly’s stock has risen 2.6%, while Pfizer’s stock has rallied 9.4% compared with the industry’s increase of 4.2%
Pfizer looks more attractive than LLY from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, LLY’s shares currently trade at 26.12 forward earnings, much higher than 14.60 for the industry. However, LLY’s stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.54. Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.03 forward earnings, significantly lower than the industry and the stock’s 5-year mean of 10.77.
Lilly’s dividend yield is 0.8%, while Pfizer's is 6.9%. Lilly’s return on equity of 92.7% is higher than Pfizer’s 21.4%.
PFE or LLY: Which is a Better Pick?
With both Lilly and Pfizer having a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), choosing one stock is a difficult task. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Though Lilly clearly has shown more efficient profitability and has stronger growth prospects than Pfizer, it recently lost significant market value due to slightly declining investor confidence in its weight-loss drugs. On the other hand, for Pfizer, with its COVID-related uncertainties diminishing, its revenue volatility is declining. Though Pfizer does not expect strong top-line growth over the next three years due to the loss of exclusivity of several of its key products, it expects EPS growth. Its recent price appreciation, cheaper valuation than Lilly and rising estimates tilt the scales in favor of Pfizer for the near term. We are choosing Pfizer over Lilly only due to the latter’s near-term challenges amid rising competitive pressure.