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AEVA or LAZR: Which LiDAR Stock's Decline Looks Less Risky?
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Key Takeaways
AEVA stock fell 23% in a month, while LAZR plunged 41% to a 52-week low.
AEVA's FMCW LiDAR, $400M backlog, and Daimler deal highlight strong tech and partnerships.
LAZR's Volvo integration, $500M liquidity, and cost cuts support a path toward profitability.
In the fast-evolving LiDAR space, two names have been at the center of investor attention: Aeva Technologies ((AEVA - Free Report) ) and Luminar Technologies ((LAZR - Free Report) ). Both are developing next-generation sensing solutions for automotive and industrial use, with the promise of enabling higher levels of vehicle autonomy and improving safety. Their commonality lies in their pursuit of LiDAR adoption, but each is taking a different path with unique strengths and challenges.
Recently, both stocks have struggled. AEVA shares are down about 23% in the past month, while LAZR has been hit harder, losing 41% and even falling to a 52-week low. Despite these setbacks, each company still commands investor interest due to its technological promise and automotive partnerships. That makes this a timely comparison for investors wondering which stock offers better prospects.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which one is better positioned now.
The Case for AEVA Stock
AEVA’s biggest strength lies in its unique technology edge. Its proprietary FMCW LiDAR not only measures distance but also velocity, enabling higher accuracy and better perception than traditional LiDAR solutions. This technology advantage has helped Aeva secure certifications that open access to European OEM supply chains, positioning it well for upcoming large-scale deployments.
Commercial traction is finally beginning to show. AEVA reported a record $5.5 million in Q2 2025 revenues, a sharp improvement and a beat versus expectations. The company’s backlog now exceeds $400 million, with major programs expected to ramp up around 2026. These numbers give investors visibility into potential growth, though the near-term revenue base remains small.
Another plus is AEVA’s growing partnership network. It has landed deals with Daimler Trucks, Bendix, LG Innotek, and Mercedes-Benz, with Daimler alone representing a deal valued at about $1 billion. LG Innotek has even committed up to $50 million in capital support, showing strong external confidence. AEVA’s diversification into industrial applications, such as logistics and smart infrastructure, also reduces its reliance on passenger car adoption.
But there are challenges. Despite higher revenues, losses remain heavy, with a Q2 net loss of $24.5 million. Cash burn is a pressing concern: the company exited Q2 with only $50 million in cash, giving it limited runway without new financing. While a $125 million equity facility provides some cushion, further dilution appears inevitable. Moreover, most meaningful automotive revenues will not materialize until 2026 or later, making execution risks high. AEVA has shown resilience by rebounding sharply from its 2024 lows, but the road to profitability remains uncertain.
The Case for LAZR Stock
Luminar, by contrast, has established itself as a technology leader with OEM credibility. Its LiDAR technology has already been adopted in the Volvo EX90 and ES90, making it the first high-performance LiDAR integrated as standard in a global production vehicle. Partnerships with Nissan and Mercedes-Benz further highlight its strong automotive positioning, which is critical as automakers move toward higher levels of autonomy.
Unlike AEVA, LAZR is also diversifying into commercial and defense markets, where adoption is progressing more quickly. Its 1550-nanometer LiDAR is being tested for military and drone applications, areas that could bring earlier revenue opportunities and stronger unit economics than passenger cars. This diversification provides a meaningful hedge while waiting for mass consumer adoption.
On the financial side, Luminar has taken steps to improve efficiency. It is shifting manufacturing from Mexico to Thailand to lower unit costs, and restructuring moves should save about $23 million annually starting in 2026. Liquidity remains accessible, with more than $500 million available through a mix of cash, credit, and equity programs, giving the company a runway to fund growth initiatives.
However, the negatives are difficult to ignore. Q2 revenues were just $15.6 million, down 5% year over year and below expectations, forcing management to cut its 2025 revenue outlook to $67-$74 million from the prior $82-$90 million. Shipments were also reduced, and gross margins remain negative due to poor unit economics. Cash burn is steep, and with around $430 million in long-term debt, dilution risk is high as equity raises continue. While Luminar’s OEM positioning is stronger than AEVA’s, its persistent execution misses weigh heavily on investor confidence.
Valuation Comparison
AEVA trades at a lofty 30X forward price-to-sales (P/S), far higher than peers, which suggests that expectations are already stretched. Luminar, in contrast, trades at only 1.6X forward P/S, reflecting both execution struggles and a steep discount relative to its long-term potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Outlook
For AEVA, the Zacks Consensus Estimate points to a 19% EPS improvement in 2025 and 9% in 2026, though it remains deeply in the red.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LAZR, on the other hand, is expected to deliver a much sharper 51% EPS improvement in 2025 and 30% in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Both AEVA and LAZR represent high-risk, high-reward bets in the LiDAR space. AEVA’s technology and partnerships are impressive, but its fragile balance sheet and delayed revenue timeline leave investors exposed to heavy dilution. Luminar faces its own challenges with guidance cuts and cash burn. Yet, its OEM traction, diversification and improved cost structure provide a clearer path toward eventual profitability.
Given the current dynamics, LAZR, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), appears better positioned than AEVA, which holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Image: Bigstock
AEVA or LAZR: Which LiDAR Stock's Decline Looks Less Risky?
Key Takeaways
In the fast-evolving LiDAR space, two names have been at the center of investor attention: Aeva Technologies ((AEVA - Free Report) ) and Luminar Technologies ((LAZR - Free Report) ). Both are developing next-generation sensing solutions for automotive and industrial use, with the promise of enabling higher levels of vehicle autonomy and improving safety. Their commonality lies in their pursuit of LiDAR adoption, but each is taking a different path with unique strengths and challenges.
Recently, both stocks have struggled. AEVA shares are down about 23% in the past month, while LAZR has been hit harder, losing 41% and even falling to a 52-week low. Despite these setbacks, each company still commands investor interest due to its technological promise and automotive partnerships. That makes this a timely comparison for investors wondering which stock offers better prospects.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which one is better positioned now.
The Case for AEVA Stock
AEVA’s biggest strength lies in its unique technology edge. Its proprietary FMCW LiDAR not only measures distance but also velocity, enabling higher accuracy and better perception than traditional LiDAR solutions. This technology advantage has helped Aeva secure certifications that open access to European OEM supply chains, positioning it well for upcoming large-scale deployments.
Commercial traction is finally beginning to show. AEVA reported a record $5.5 million in Q2 2025 revenues, a sharp improvement and a beat versus expectations. The company’s backlog now exceeds $400 million, with major programs expected to ramp up around 2026. These numbers give investors visibility into potential growth, though the near-term revenue base remains small.
Another plus is AEVA’s growing partnership network. It has landed deals with Daimler Trucks, Bendix, LG Innotek, and Mercedes-Benz, with Daimler alone representing a deal valued at about $1 billion. LG Innotek has even committed up to $50 million in capital support, showing strong external confidence. AEVA’s diversification into industrial applications, such as logistics and smart infrastructure, also reduces its reliance on passenger car adoption.
But there are challenges. Despite higher revenues, losses remain heavy, with a Q2 net loss of $24.5 million. Cash burn is a pressing concern: the company exited Q2 with only $50 million in cash, giving it limited runway without new financing. While a $125 million equity facility provides some cushion, further dilution appears inevitable. Moreover, most meaningful automotive revenues will not materialize until 2026 or later, making execution risks high. AEVA has shown resilience by rebounding sharply from its 2024 lows, but the road to profitability remains uncertain.
The Case for LAZR Stock
Luminar, by contrast, has established itself as a technology leader with OEM credibility. Its LiDAR technology has already been adopted in the Volvo EX90 and ES90, making it the first high-performance LiDAR integrated as standard in a global production vehicle. Partnerships with Nissan and Mercedes-Benz further highlight its strong automotive positioning, which is critical as automakers move toward higher levels of autonomy.
Unlike AEVA, LAZR is also diversifying into commercial and defense markets, where adoption is progressing more quickly. Its 1550-nanometer LiDAR is being tested for military and drone applications, areas that could bring earlier revenue opportunities and stronger unit economics than passenger cars. This diversification provides a meaningful hedge while waiting for mass consumer adoption.
On the financial side, Luminar has taken steps to improve efficiency. It is shifting manufacturing from Mexico to Thailand to lower unit costs, and restructuring moves should save about $23 million annually starting in 2026. Liquidity remains accessible, with more than $500 million available through a mix of cash, credit, and equity programs, giving the company a runway to fund growth initiatives.
However, the negatives are difficult to ignore. Q2 revenues were just $15.6 million, down 5% year over year and below expectations, forcing management to cut its 2025 revenue outlook to $67-$74 million from the prior $82-$90 million. Shipments were also reduced, and gross margins remain negative due to poor unit economics. Cash burn is steep, and with around $430 million in long-term debt, dilution risk is high as equity raises continue. While Luminar’s OEM positioning is stronger than AEVA’s, its persistent execution misses weigh heavily on investor confidence.
Valuation Comparison
AEVA trades at a lofty 30X forward price-to-sales (P/S), far higher than peers, which suggests that expectations are already stretched. Luminar, in contrast, trades at only 1.6X forward P/S, reflecting both execution struggles and a steep discount relative to its long-term potential.
EPS Outlook
For AEVA, the Zacks Consensus Estimate points to a 19% EPS improvement in 2025 and 9% in 2026, though it remains deeply in the red.
LAZR, on the other hand, is expected to deliver a much sharper 51% EPS improvement in 2025 and 30% in 2026.
Conclusion
Both AEVA and LAZR represent high-risk, high-reward bets in the LiDAR space. AEVA’s technology and partnerships are impressive, but its fragile balance sheet and delayed revenue timeline leave investors exposed to heavy dilution. Luminar faces its own challenges with guidance cuts and cash burn. Yet, its OEM traction, diversification and improved cost structure provide a clearer path toward eventual profitability.
Given the current dynamics, LAZR, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), appears better positioned than AEVA, which holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.