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Seagate Resumes Buybacks Amid Rising Free Cash Flow Momentum

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Key Takeaways

  • Seagate will resume share buybacks in current quarter, reflecting strong cash flow and outlook.
  • Fiscal 2025 revenues rose 39% to $9.1B, fueled by demand from global cloud customers.
  • Free cash flow hit $425M in Q4, with annual cash flow of $818M supporting shareholder returns.

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX - Free Report) announced plans to resume share buybacks in the September quarter, underscoring its confidence in the financial strength and outlook post a strong fiscal 2025 performance.  

In fiscal 2025, revenues were $9.1 billion, up 39% year over year, driven by robust nearline demand from cloud customers. A key driver of Seagate’s growth is the ongoing implementation and expansion of its HAMR technology, aimed at increasing areal density and supporting next-generation storage solutions. These technological advances are crucial for meeting the increased demand for high-capacity storage in hyperscale data centers, AI training workloads and decentralized edge environments. Non-GAAP operating profit more than tripled to $2.1 billion in fiscal 2025.

Free cash flow in the fiscal fourth quarter was $425 million, driven by robust top-line growth and disciplined capital expenditures of 3% of revenues, below the long-term target range of 4-6%. Annual free cash flow was $818 million.

STX expects cash generation to expand in the back half of calendar 2025, even with a large variable compensation payout in the current quarter. Further, structural changes and a robust product pipeline are expected to drive higher profitability and cash generation in fiscal 2026.

With profitability trending higher and mass capacity storage demand accelerating, the company appears well-positioned to balance growth with meaningful capital returns, thereby enhancing shareholder value in fiscal 2026 and beyond. In fiscal 2025, the company distributed nearly 75% of free cash flow through dividends, while paying down gross debt of about $150 million in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Taking a Look at Shareholder Returns for STX’s Competitors

Western Digital Corporation (WDC - Free Report) is also gaining from rising demand for high-capacity storage driven by cloud computing and generative AI. Both require massive and cost-effective storage backbones that HDDs still provide. WDC’s revenues skyrocketed 51% year over year to $9.5 billion in fiscal 2025. Free cash flow amounted to $675 million in the fiscal fourth quarter, up 139% while annual free cash flow was $1.4 billion. With strong cash flow, a solid balance sheet and confidence in its business outlook, WDC’s board approved up to $2 billion in share buybacks. In the fiscal fourth quarter, the company repurchased about 2.8 million shares for $149 million. WDC also paid $36 million in cash dividends at 10 cents per share.

Pure Storage (PSTG - Free Report) recently reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results with revenues growing 13% to $861 million. Growth was broad-based across the portfolio, driven by strong demand from large enterprises, ongoing momentum in FlashBlade, particularly FlashBlade//E, and accelerating adoption of its core software and services offerings, including Evergreen//One, Cloud Block Store and Portworx. Free cash flow was $150.1 million compared with $166.6 million in the year-ago quarter. In the fiscal second quarter, the company returned $42 million to its shareholders by repurchasing 0.8 million shares. Pure Storage has $109 million left under its current authorization plan. PSTG does not pay a dividend.

STX Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

In the past month, shares have gained 9.6% against with the Zacks Computer Integrated Systems industry’s decline of 3.5%.

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In terms of forward price/earnings, STX’s shares are trading at 15.58X, lower than the industry’s 19.97X.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STX’s earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised up 4.2% to $10.30 over the past 60 days.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Currently, Seagate has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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