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Why Is Expand Energy (EXE) Down 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Expand Energy (EXE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Expand Energy due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Expand Energy Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Expand Energy Q2 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Both Increase Y/Y

Expand Energyreported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.10, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14. However, the company’s bottom line surpassed the year-ago adjusted profit of 1 cent, fueled by strong production and higher natural gas price realization.

Expand Energy’s ‘natural gas, oil and NGL’ revenues of $2 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $74 million. However, the top line was outstandingly higher than the year-ago figure of $378 million.

Production & Price Realizations

The company reported the average second-quarter daily production (comprising 92% natural gas) of 7,202 million cubic feet of gas equivalent (MMcfe/day), which jumped 162% from the year-ago level of 2,745 MMcfe/day. The daily production levels also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 7,150 MMcfe/day. Natural gas volume for the period came in at 6,596 MMcf/day, up 140% year over year. The consensus mark called for 6,600 MMcf/day of natural gas. EXE’s oil production was 18 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), while NGL output totaled 83 MBbl/d.

The average sales price for natural gas during the second quarter was $2.98 per Mcf, up 18.7% from the prior-year realization of $2.51 per Mcf, but was below the consensus mark of $3.02. The average realized oil price was $55.89 per barrel compared with the consensus mark of $53. Meanwhile, the average realized NGL price was $23.08 per barrel, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$26.05.

Costs & Expenses

Total operating expenses in the quarter rose to $2.4 billion from the year-ago quarter’s $799 million. This was mainly due to an increase in gathering, processing and transportation costs, which were up nearly threefold year over year to $563 million. The company’s marketing cost of 791 million also rose significantly from the year-ago level of $141 million. Furthermore, Expand Energy’s depreciation outlay increased 121% from the second quarter of 2024.

Dividend and Share Repurchases

In the second quarter, the company will return a total of $448 million to shareholders through a quarterly base dividend of $137 million, a variable dividend of $211 million, and share repurchases totaling $100 million. The base and variable dividends are scheduled to be paid on Sept. 4, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Aug. 14, 2025.

Financial Position

Cash flow from operations totaled $1.3 billion, which increased significantly from the prior-year quarter levels of $209 million, while Expand Energy’s capital expenditure totaled $657 million, leading to a free cash flow of $665 million. It also paid out $137 million in dividends during the period.

As of June 30, 2025, the company had $731 million in cash and cash equivalents. Expand Energy had a long-term debt of $5.1 billion, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization of 22.2%.

Guidance for Q3 & 2025

Expand Energy is targeting an average daily production in the range of 7,150-7,250 MMcfe for the third quarter and 7,000-7,200 MMcfe for full-year 2025. The company has budgeted its capital spending between $760 million and $840 million for the upcoming quarter, while for 2025, the figure is between $2.9 billion and $3 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.18% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Expand Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Expand Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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