It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Murphy USA (MUSA Quick QuoteMUSA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy USA due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Murphy USA Q2 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss

Murphy USA announced second-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $7.36, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.82 and compared favorably with the year-ago profit of $6.92. The outperformance was primarily on the back of higher fuel margins.

Murphy USA’s operating revenues of $5 billion fell 8.2% year over year and missed the consensus mark by $468 million due to lower-than-expected petroleum product sales.

Revenues from petroleum product sales came in at $3.9 billion, well below our estimate of $4.2 billion and down 11.3% from the second quarter of 2024. On the other hand, merchandise sales, at $1.1 billion, were up 1.1% year over year.  

Key Takeaways

MUSA’s total fuel contribution edged up 0.7% year over year to $393 million on higher retail contribution and margin expansion. Total fuel contribution (including retail fuel margin plus product supply and wholesale results) came in at 32 cents per gallon, up 1% from the second quarter of 2024.

Retail fuel contribution fell 1.7% year over year to $359.1 million as margins narrowed to 29.2 cents per gallon from 29.7 cents in the corresponding period of 2024. Retail gallons declined 0.2% from the year-ago period to 1,229.3 million but beat our estimate of 1,227.2 million. Volumes on an SSS basis (or fuel gallons per store) deteriorated 2.1% from the second quarter of 2024 to 239.3 thousand.

Contribution from Merchandise edged up 1% to $218.7 million on slightly higher sales even as unit margins remained flat year over year at 20%. On an SSS basis, total merchandise contribution decreased 0.9% year over year, primarily due to 2.4% lower non-nicotine margins. Meanwhile, merchandise sales decreased 1% on an SSS basis, due to a drop in nicotine as well as non-nicotine sales.

The Zacks company’s monthly fuel gallons fell 2.3% from the prior-year period, while merchandise sales decreased 0.7% on an average per-store monthly basis.

Balance Sheet

As of June 30, Murphy USA — which opened six new retail locations in the quarter and closed one outlet to take its store count to 1,766 — had cash and cash equivalents of $54.1 million and long-term debt (including lease obligations) of $2.1 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 76.2%.

During the quarter, MUSA bought back shares worth $211.9 million.                                                                              

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Murphy USA has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Murphy USA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.