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HTH Shares Hit 52-Week High: Is There Further Upside Potential?
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Key Takeaways
Hilltop Holdings stock hit a new 52-week high of $35.63, gaining 15.6% in the past month.
Higher rates, prudent expense control and strong capital returns support HTH's financials.
Asset quality concerns and weak mortgage originations weigh on Hilltop Holdings' prospects.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH - Free Report) shares touched a new 52-week high of $35.63 during Friday’s trading session. Over the past month, the stock has risen 15.6%, outperforming the industry, the Zacks Finance sector and the S&P 500 index. Further, HTH stock has fared better than its peers — Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH - Free Report) and Hancock Whitney, Corp. (HWC - Free Report) .
One-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Can HTH sustain the ongoing momentum and offer higher upside potential for your portfolio? Let us try to find out.
What Supports Hilltop Holdings Stock?
Relatively Higher Rates to Aid Net Interest Income: Hilltop Holdings has been focusing on improving its net interest income (NII). The metric significantly rose in 2023 and 2022, primarily driven by strategic buyouts, decent loan demand and higher interest rates.
Likewise, the company’s net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 3.09% in 2023 from 2.88% in 2022. Though both NII and NIM declined in 2024, they rebounded during the first half of 2025 on the back of relatively higher interest rates. Given higher for longer interest rates due to tariff policy uncertainties alongside decent loan demand, both metrics are likely to improve modestly, while higher funding costs will exert pressure on them.
NIM Trend
Image Source: Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Management expects NII to rise 2-4% in 2025, driven by lower deposit costs.
Encouraging Capital Distributions: As of June 30, 2025, HTH’s total debt (comprising short-term borrowings and other liabilities) was $969 million, and cash and due from banks was $982.5 million.
Given a solid balance sheet position, the company’s capital distribution activities remain encouraging. Hilltop Holdings has been hiking its dividends regularly since 2016, with the last one announced in January 2025.
The company has hiked its dividend five times in the last five years, with an annualized dividend growth of 13.7%. This demonstrates the company’s financial resilience.
Dividend Yield
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Similarly, Commerce Bancshares has increased its dividends seven times over the past five years, while Hancock Whitney has hiked its dividend three times in the same time frame.
HTH has a share repurchase plan in place, which was extended in July 2025 to $135 million. As of June 30, 2025, roughly $67 million worth of authorization remained available.
Prudent Expense Management: Hilltop Holdings has been managing its expenses judiciously. The company’s non-interest expenses reflected a negative CAGR of 5.1% over the five years ended in 2024. The fall was on account of the company’s measures to mitigate expenses in less profitable businesses like Prime Lending.
Total Expenses Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The trend, however, reversed in the first six months of 2025. Though continued investments in franchises and inflationary pressures will weigh on the company’s total expenses, such efforts will continue to slow down the pace of expense growth.
The company expects variable expenses to rise 1-4% in 2025.
Headwinds for Hilltop Holdings’ Stock
Deteriorating Asset Quality: Hilltop Holdings’ weak asset quality is a concern. Though the company’s provisions for credit losses declined in 2024, the metric rose significantly in 2023 and 2022. Further, the company’s net charge-offs (NCOs) reflected a CAGR of 15.1% over the five years ended 2024. In the first half of 2025, provisions declined, but NCOs increased.
NCOs Five-Quarter Trend
Image Source: Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Given the current challenging macroeconomic outlook and anticipated increase in delinquencies, the company’s provisions for credit losses and NCOs are likely to remain elevated in the near term.
Subdued Mortgage Origination Segment Performance: The weak performance of Hilltop Holdings’ Mortgage Origination segment is a headwind. Though mortgage loan origination volumes rose 4% in the first six months of 2025 and 4.5% in 2024, they decreased 44.2% in 2022 and 34.9% in 2023.
Mortgage Origination Volume Quarterly Trend
Image Source: Hilltop Holdings Inc.
PrimeLending, a wholly owned subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings and a national residential mortgage originator, has taken numerous initiatives to tackle lower loan volumes and pressure on profitability. These include a reduction in headcount, consolidation of unprofitable branches and adjustment of target fixed costs.
Relatively higher mortgage rates, lack of inventory and stressed affordability for potential home buyers are expected to keep hampering origination volumes in the quarters ahead. This will adversely impact the segment’s performance.
The company expects 2025 mortgage origination volume to be in the range of $8-$9 billion.
Mixed Analyst Sentiments for Hilltop Holdings
Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings of $2.01 has moved 7.5% upward, while that for 2026 earnings of $1.81 per share has moved 2.2% downward.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The projected figures imply a year-over-year rise of 15.5% in 2025, while the same is expected to decline 10.2% in 2026.
HTH Stock is Overvalued
Hilltop Holdings’ forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.71X is above the industry’s 11.13X. This indicates that its shares are trading at a premium.
Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likewise, Commerce Bancshares has a forward 12-month P/E of 14.08X while Hancock Whitney is trading at 10.85X. This implies HTH is expensive than both of them.
Final Thoughts on HTH Stock
Prudent expense management and a solid balance sheet position are likely to support Hilltop Holdings’ financials. Relatively higher rates are expected to drive NII and NIM growth, while elevated funding costs will likely strain margin expansion.
Weak asset quality and subdued mortgage origination volumes remain major headwinds. Also, mixed analyst sentiments and stretched valuation pose near-term concerns.
Image: Shutterstock
HTH Shares Hit 52-Week High: Is There Further Upside Potential?
Key Takeaways
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH - Free Report) shares touched a new 52-week high of $35.63 during Friday’s trading session. Over the past month, the stock has risen 15.6%, outperforming the industry, the Zacks Finance sector and the S&P 500 index. Further, HTH stock has fared better than its peers — Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH - Free Report) and Hancock Whitney, Corp. (HWC - Free Report) .
One-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Can HTH sustain the ongoing momentum and offer higher upside potential for your portfolio? Let us try to find out.
What Supports Hilltop Holdings Stock?
Relatively Higher Rates to Aid Net Interest Income: Hilltop Holdings has been focusing on improving its net interest income (NII). The metric significantly rose in 2023 and 2022, primarily driven by strategic buyouts, decent loan demand and higher interest rates.
Likewise, the company’s net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 3.09% in 2023 from 2.88% in 2022. Though both NII and NIM declined in 2024, they rebounded during the first half of 2025 on the back of relatively higher interest rates. Given higher for longer interest rates due to tariff policy uncertainties alongside decent loan demand, both metrics are likely to improve modestly, while higher funding costs will exert pressure on them.
NIM Trend
Image Source: Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Management expects NII to rise 2-4% in 2025, driven by lower deposit costs.
Encouraging Capital Distributions: As of June 30, 2025, HTH’s total debt (comprising short-term borrowings and other liabilities) was $969 million, and cash and due from banks was $982.5 million.
Given a solid balance sheet position, the company’s capital distribution activities remain encouraging. Hilltop Holdings has been hiking its dividends regularly since 2016, with the last one announced in January 2025.
The company has hiked its dividend five times in the last five years, with an annualized dividend growth of 13.7%. This demonstrates the company’s financial resilience.
Dividend Yield
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Similarly, Commerce Bancshares has increased its dividends seven times over the past five years, while Hancock Whitney has hiked its dividend three times in the same time frame.
HTH has a share repurchase plan in place, which was extended in July 2025 to $135 million. As of June 30, 2025, roughly $67 million worth of authorization remained available.
Prudent Expense Management: Hilltop Holdings has been managing its expenses judiciously. The company’s non-interest expenses reflected a negative CAGR of 5.1% over the five years ended in 2024. The fall was on account of the company’s measures to mitigate expenses in less profitable businesses like Prime Lending.
Total Expenses Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The trend, however, reversed in the first six months of 2025. Though continued investments in franchises and inflationary pressures will weigh on the company’s total expenses, such efforts will continue to slow down the pace of expense growth.
The company expects variable expenses to rise 1-4% in 2025.
Headwinds for Hilltop Holdings’ Stock
Deteriorating Asset Quality: Hilltop Holdings’ weak asset quality is a concern. Though the company’s provisions for credit losses declined in 2024, the metric rose significantly in 2023 and 2022. Further, the company’s net charge-offs (NCOs) reflected a CAGR of 15.1% over the five years ended 2024. In the first half of 2025, provisions declined, but NCOs increased.
NCOs Five-Quarter Trend
Image Source: Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Given the current challenging macroeconomic outlook and anticipated increase in delinquencies, the company’s provisions for credit losses and NCOs are likely to remain elevated in the near term.
Subdued Mortgage Origination Segment Performance: The weak performance of Hilltop Holdings’ Mortgage Origination segment is a headwind. Though mortgage loan origination volumes rose 4% in the first six months of 2025 and 4.5% in 2024, they decreased 44.2% in 2022 and 34.9% in 2023.
Mortgage Origination Volume Quarterly Trend
Image Source: Hilltop Holdings Inc.
PrimeLending, a wholly owned subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings and a national residential mortgage originator, has taken numerous initiatives to tackle lower loan volumes and pressure on profitability. These include a reduction in headcount, consolidation of unprofitable branches and adjustment of target fixed costs.
Relatively higher mortgage rates, lack of inventory and stressed affordability for potential home buyers are expected to keep hampering origination volumes in the quarters ahead. This will adversely impact the segment’s performance.
The company expects 2025 mortgage origination volume to be in the range of $8-$9 billion.
Mixed Analyst Sentiments for Hilltop Holdings
Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings of $2.01 has moved 7.5% upward, while that for 2026 earnings of $1.81 per share has moved 2.2% downward.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The projected figures imply a year-over-year rise of 15.5% in 2025, while the same is expected to decline 10.2% in 2026.
HTH Stock is Overvalued
Hilltop Holdings’ forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.71X is above the industry’s 11.13X. This indicates that its shares are trading at a premium.
Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Likewise, Commerce Bancshares has a forward 12-month P/E of 14.08X while Hancock Whitney is trading at 10.85X. This implies HTH is expensive than both of them.
Final Thoughts on HTH Stock
Prudent expense management and a solid balance sheet position are likely to support Hilltop Holdings’ financials. Relatively higher rates are expected to drive NII and NIM growth, while elevated funding costs will likely strain margin expansion.
Weak asset quality and subdued mortgage origination volumes remain major headwinds. Also, mixed analyst sentiments and stretched valuation pose near-term concerns.
Thus, HTH stock remains a cautious bet for investors at the moment. Those who own the stock can hold it for now. Hilltop Holdings currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.