What happens across this Global Week Ahead?

• The prospect of a change in leadership and policy-making at the U.S. Federal Reserve, in France’s parliament, and across Norway, keep risk markets on alert
• The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday, and 
• Investors brace for key macro data, from the U.S., Mainland China, and Japan

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) On Thursday, traders get the August U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data.

Investors have a lot riding on Thursday's August U.S. inflation report.

A rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September 16th-17th meeting is priced in, but not a foregone conclusion. Especially if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises more than the +0.3% expected, after July's +0.2% rise.

Some policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have signaled that an easing for the first time since December is likely, maybe this month — depending on data.

The long expected pass-through from tariffs has yet to be really felt by consumers paying for imported goods.

U.S. Treasury auctions will be another test of where long-term interest rates are headed, especially Thursday's 30-year bond sale.

T-bond yields rose above the psychological 5.0% level for the first time in seven weeks in recent days, enticing bond buyers and should indicate support for bidding at the long-end.

(2) Gold at a record price. OPEC+ met over the weekend.

Gold has again scaled record highs, boosted by uncertainty around the global economic outlook, U.S. trade policy and the fate of King Dollar after Trump's battle with the Fed triggered a high-stakes legal challenge and raised fresh concerns over central bank independence.

Analysts predict the run isn't quite over yet for the ultimate safe haven after spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,578.50 in recent days, and central banks joining the push to stock up on the precious metal.

But there's less of a shine on oil, as a weekend meeting at OPEC+ brought in much lower increases in barrels of oil produced per day: +137K for October, way down from +555K in September. Spot oil prices have been slumping down to spring levels, @ $63 per bbl.

This group — which pumps half the world's oil and is on a push to regain market share — would unwind output cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand — more than a year ahead of schedule.

(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) should hold its policy rates.

The ECB meeting is set to hold rates on Thursday. Traders reckon the central bank is done cutting this year.

A hawkish tone at July's meeting, an EU-U.S. trade deal and better-than-expected data since then have wiped bets on further easing.

Traders now see around a 30% chance of a rate cut by December, having nearly fully priced that move before the July meeting. Economists polled by Reuters, opens new tab also reckon the ECB is done for 2025.

Policymakers last time wanted to remain "deliberately uninformative, opens new tab" about future decisions. Markets will face another guessing game as traders try to read between the lines during ECB chief Christine Lagarde's news conference.

Expect her to also be pushed on what renewed political turmoil in France and the risk of a deterioration in U.S. Federal Reserve independence means for the euro zone economy.

(4) Mainland China and Japan produce important macro data updates.

Data from China and Japan will be closely watched for signs — of how U.S. President Donald Trump's mercurial tariff policy is impacting Asia's biggest economies.

China trade data is due on Monday for August when talks between Beijing and Washington went down to the wire to extend a trade truce and forestall the imposition of more than 100% tariffs on each other's goods.

The previous print showed Chinese exports grew a better-than-expected 7.2% in July, but a breakthrough with the Trump administration remains distant.

Wednesday's Reuters Tankan index of Japanese manufacturers' sentiment, tracking the central bank's own gauge, may offer clarity on how Japan Inc. is weathering the trade turmoil. Uncertainty over the tariff hit has stayed the Bank of Japan's hand on rate hikes.

(5) On Monday, France holds a parliament confidence vote. Across Sept. 7th-8th, the entire nation of Norway votes.

Who would envy being finance minister of France or Britain right now?

Economic growth is weak, debt uncomfortably high. Try and cut public spending and you have a revolt on your hands, signal you take fiscal discipline anything but seriously, and bond vigilantes swoop.

France holds a confidence vote in parliament on Monday, called precisely because its prime minister wants backing for an unpopular debt-reduction plan. He's unlikely to win, fueling political uncertainty and difficulties bringing an over 5% budget deficit down.

Britain's fiscal challenges have hurt gilts and sterling. A November budget is shaping up as a key risk event.

Norway votes on September 7th-8th in a tight election that has seen investments in Israel in focus, sparking an unusually public debate over how the Scandinavian country's sovereign wealth fund — the largest in the world — operates.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

To make comparisons easy, I picked three airlines off our #1 list.

I show them in order of market capitalization.

(1) Ryanair (RYAAY Quick QuoteRYAAY - Free Report) : This is a $60 a share stock, with a market cap of $31.9B. It is found in the Transportation-Airline industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Ryanair Holdings is the parent company of Ryanair Designated Activity Company (formerly known as Ryanair Limited).

Ryanair is an ultra-low fare carrier that offers scheduled-passenger airline service in Ireland, the UK, Continental Europe, Morocco and Israel. Also, it serves short-haul, point-to-point routes.

(2) Latam Airlines (LTM Quick QuoteLTM - Free Report) : This is a $52 a share stock, with a market cap of $15.5B. It is found in the Transportation-Airline industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. offers domestic and international passenger and cargo air services. 
The company operates primarily in Chile, the United States, the South Pacific, Europe and Latin America.

LATAM Airlines Group S.A., formerly known as Lan Chile S.A, is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

(3) Skywest (SKYW Quick QuoteSKYW - Free Report) : This is a $120 a share stock, with a market cap of $4.9B. It is found in the Transportation-Airline industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

SkyWest operates as a regional airline in the U.S. through its subsidiary SkyWest Airlines.

SkyWest is also the holding company of an aircraft leasing company. It offers high-quality regional service to airports located primarily in the Midwestern and Western United States as well as Mexico and Canada.

Offering scheduled regional airline service under code-share agreements with its airline partners, forms the basis of the company's operating model.

On a daily basis, SkyWest is responsible for operating more than 2,100 flights to multiple destinations in N. America.

SkyWest provides regional operations to its major airline partners under long-term, fixed-fee, code-share agreements.

The company has codeshare agreements with key airline players like Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United and Alaska Airlines.

The fixed-fee agreement with these companies obligates the respective major airline partners to refund the amount of fuel costs SkyWest incurs, under those agreements.
 

Key Global Macro

Thursday’s U.S. CPI data for August 2025 is the key print.

On Monday, Germany’s Industrial Production data for July came out at a +1.3% m/m print for seasonally adjusted data, which matched consensus. This follows an upwardly revised -0.1% m/m print in June.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence index for SEPT comes out. The prior reading was +5.7%.

On Wednesday, Mainland China’s CPI for August comes out. The prior y/y reading was a flat 0.0% print.

Mainland China’s FDI for August also comes out. The prior y/y print was a weak -13.4%.

The U.S. PPI ex-Food & Energy comes out for August. The prior y/y reading was ‘hot’ at +3.7%. This is where the U.S. ‘emergency’ tariff effects can be identified, by industry.

On Thursday, the ECB should keep its Main Refi Rate at 2.15%. Their Rate on Deposit facility should also stay at 2.0%.

The U.S. CPI for August is expected to be up +0.3% m/m, following a +0.2% m/m rise in July. The broad CPI prior print was 2.7% in y/y terms.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims come out. The prior week had risen to 237K. The 4-week average is 231K.

On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for SEPT comes out. The prior reading was a low 58.2.

Conclusion

Out on September 3rd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied his S&P500 outlook on Q3-25.

Four key points:

(1) Zacks expects total Q3-25 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up +5.0% from the same period last year, on +6.0% higher revenues.

(2) Unlike other recent periods, the revisions trend has been positive, with estimates for Q3-25 modestly up, since the quarter got underway.

Since the start of July, earnings estimates have increased for 5 of the 16 Zacks sectors, including Tech, Finance, and Energy.

(3) Excluding the Tech sector contribution, Q3-25 earnings for the rest of the S&P500 index would be up only +2.1% (vs. +5.0% otherwise).

(4) For the cornerstone Magnificent 7 group?

Zacks expects Q3 earnings to be up +11.4% from the same period last year, on +14.5% higher revenues.

This would follow the group’s +26.4% earnings growth, on +15.5% revenue growth, in the preceding period.

Keep this central to your thinking: an outperforming Tech and “Mag 7” earnings performance remains critical, to overall earnings growth, inside the S&P500 index.

Absent that? We have anemic nominal +2.1% Q3 EPS growth.

What is the ‘real’ growth rate — peeled away from that nominal number?

Have a successful week, trading and investing.

Warm Regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist