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UPS vs. JBHT: Which Dividend-Paying Transportation Stock Has an Edge?

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Key Takeaways

  • UPS raised its dividend but faces concerns over sustainability due to high payout and weak free cash flow.
  • JBHT increased its dividend with a lower payout ratio, avoiding sustainability concerns tied to UPS.
  • JBHT outperformed UPS with intermodal growth, carbon reduction goals, and stronger earnings prospects.

United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT - Free Report) are two prominent names in the Zacks Transportation sector. Both companies have announced dividend hikes this year despite the prevalent economic uncertainties, reflecting their shareholder-friendly approach.

Dividend-paying stocks provide a solid income stream and have fewer chances of experiencing wild price swings. Dividend stocks are safe bets for creating wealth, as the payouts generally act as a hedge against economic uncertainty, like the current scenario. 

In February, UPS’ board of directors approved a dividend hike, thereby raising its quarterly cash dividend to $1.64 per share ($6.56 annualized) from $1.63 ($6.52 annualized). In January, J.B. Hunt’s board of directors approved a dividend hike of 2.3%, thereby raising its quarterly cash dividend to 44 cents per share ($1.76 annualized) from 43 cents ($1.72 annualized).

Sustainability of UPS’ Dividends in Question, Unlike JBHT

No doubt UPS’ most recent dividend hike reflects its shareholder-friendly approach, but questions about the sustainability of its dividend arise. United Parcel Service’s elevated dividend payout ratio (the percentage of net income paid out as dividends) highlights the concerns associated with its ability to maintain dividend payouts over the long term.

We remind investors that in the early 2020s, when UPS’ business was flourishing, driven by exponential e-commerce growth during the peak pandemic period, the company made huge dividend payments. Free cash flow has been on a decline since touching a high of $9 billion in 2022.

UPS' elevated dividend payout is hurting its operational flexibility, with free cash flow not even covering the dividend paid in the first half of 2025. The company only generated $742 million in free cash flow in the first half but paid $2.7 billion in dividends. On the other hand, JBHT’s much lower dividend payout ratio implies that concerns associated with its ability to maintain dividend payouts over the long term are absent.

While we have considered the dividend-paying abilities of both the transportation stocks, let’s delve deep to compare other relevant metrics to determine which of JBHT and UPS is a better investment now.

Price Performance: How Do They Compare

Despite the complex economic landscape, JBHT has performed much better than UPS so far this year.

YTD Price Comparison

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

UPS’ lacklustre price performance is mainly due to the revenue weakness as geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations. The weak demand scenario has led to a decline in the volume of packages shipped. 

On the other hand, Intermodal volume growth (up 6% in the second quarter of 2025) seems to have supported JBHT. This growth was driven by strong performance in the eastern network. J.B. Hunt’s efforts to provide sustainable, environmentally friendly solutions for customers are commendable. J.B. Hunt has a target to reduce carbon emission intensity by 32% by 2034 from a baseline year of 2019. To meet this target, JBHT is following three major pathways — involvement of alternative-powered equipment into its fleet, expanding the use of biogenic fuels, and improving fuel economy. JBHT has already crossed the halfway mark. Given the encouraging initiatives mentioned above, we are hopeful that JBHT will complete its target in the near future.

How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for JBHT & UPS?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBHT’s 2025 sales estimate implies a 0.3% year-over-year decrease, while the same for 2026 suggests a 5.8% year-over-year increase. The consensus mark for JBHT’s 2025 EPS estimate highlights a 1.3% year-over-year decrease. The same for 2026 implies a 21.9% year-over-year increase.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS’ 2025 sales estimate implies a 3.9% year-over-year decrease, while the same for 2026 implies a 0.6% year-over-year increase. The consensus mark for UPS’ 2025 EPS estimate highlights a 15.4% year-over-year decrease. The same for 2026 implies a 13.4% year-over-year increase.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

JBHT Appears to be More Pricey Than UPS

JBHT is trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.09X. JBHT has a Value Score of B. Meanwhile, UPS has a Value Score of A, with its forward sales multiple at 0.81X.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

JBHT’s expensive valuation (compared to UPS) seems to suggest that investors are to pay a premium for this key player in the transportation sector. Agreed that both stocks focus on paying dividends, but JBHT’s lower dividend payout ratio puts to rest concerns about dividend sustainability, unlike UPS.

JBHT’s better price performance and environment-friendly approach, apart from its cost-cutting actions, bode well. Strong intermodal volumes are also serving the company well. Demand for JBHT’s intermodal services remains strong.

Given its better prospects, JBHT seems a better pick than UPS now.

While JBHT carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), UPS has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.  

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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