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Fed Cuts Rates & Hints at Two More Cuts in 2025: ETFs to Play

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U.S. stocks ended Wednesday on a mixed note after the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of 2025. As expected, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.00-4.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a "risk management cut," citing a softer labor market and sticky inflation, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Outlook: More Cuts Ahead

Policymakers signaled two additional rate reductions this year, which would bring the benchmark down to 3.50-3.75% by December, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. In June, officials had projected only two cuts in total for 2025, but the new "dot plot" indicates a more steadfast monetary policy easing, the Yahoo Finance article noted.

Updated Economic Projections

The Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in this meeting. Officials raised their outlook for economic growth this year to 1.6% from 1.4% predicted in June, while maintaining forecasts for inflation and unemployment. Still, the statement noted that risks to employment have increased in recent times.

GDP growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 have also been raised to 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, from 1.6% and 1.8% expected in June. Fed funds rate is expected to be 3.6% by the end of December. The rate should be 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, down from 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, projected in June. Note that the Fed cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

The Fed sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% this year, in line with its previous forecast. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in August. Unemployment is expected to decline to 4.4% (from 4.5% projected in June) through 2026 and to 4.3% (from 4.4% projected before) in 2027 (read: Best-Performing Leveraged ETF Areas of Last Week).

Is the Fed Facing a Double-Edged Sword?

Powell highlighted the Fed’s balancing act in his press conference. A slowing labor market and rising inflationary pressures, especially amid tariff threats, have put the Fed in a challenging position. The situation has the ability to create a stagflation-like scenario.

How to Play?

Value

Normally, value stocks outperform in a higher-rate environment. But these are gem-like bets amid economic uncertainties caused by high inflation. While a total of three rate cuts in 2025 (if it at all happens) should work wonders for growth stocks, investors with a lower risk appetite may consider Invesco S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (SPVU - Free Report) , which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Retail

Now, who can overlook consumer discretionary ETFs at this point of the year (due to the holiday season)? With the peak of the holiday season two months away, back-to-back rate cuts should favor retail stocks and ETFs. This is especially true given that August retail sales came in upbeat. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) (read: Retail Sales Gain Steam in August: 4 ETF Areas to Win).

Small Caps

This is an obvious choice given the chances of more rate cuts and an upgraded GDP growth outlook. Small-cap stocks often stand to benefit from rate cuts, as lower borrowing costs along with an improving domestic economy are great tailwinds for them. Small caps are mainly tied to the domestic economy and thus have less export exposure. ETF SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SPSM - Free Report) , which has a Zacks Rank #2.

High Income

Thanks to the uncertain economic scenario, it is better to lean on the steady source of current income, received in various forms. Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD - Free Report) is such an option. While this kind of products cap upside potential, the fund yields as high as 13.05% annually and charges 60 bps in fees (read: A 25-bp Fed Rate Cut Already Baked in on Wall Street? ETFs to Play).

Artificial Intelligence

Investments in AI show no signs of slowing. In such an environment, if the Fed delivers back-to-back rate cuts, this high-growth industry could receive another boost, benefiting AI-focused ETFs such as the Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT - Free Report) .

Hydrogen Power

Low-emission hydrogen production projects are expected to grow by 2030 despite project delays and cancellations (according to IEA), per a Reuters article, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. However, the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review shows that expected production for 2030 now stands at 37 million metric tons per year, down from 49 million metric tons estimated just a year earlier, the same article revealed.

The AI boom has led to an increased need for clean and sustainable energy sources, which include hydrogen as a potential fuel. AI enthusiasm is likely to remain in fine fettle in a low-rate environment, as growth stocks typically perform well in such scenarios. This backdrop, combined with a supply-demand imbalance, in the hydrogen power space could boost the price of the Global X Hydrogen ETF (HYDR - Free Report) .

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