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ODFL Stock Down 26.2% Y/Y: Will the Plunge Continue Throughout 2025?
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Key Takeaways
ODFL's Q3 earnings estimate was cut 10.2% to $1.23, signaling weaker near-term performance.
Shares dropped 26.2% in a year versus a 22.7% fall in the Transportation - Truck industry.
LTL tons per day fell 9.3%, pressuring revenue growth despite pricing discipline.
Old Dominion Freight Line’s (ODFL - Free Report) shares have had an unimpressive run in a year. Shares of this trucking company have plunged 26.2% in the same period, underperforming its industry’s 22.7% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the unimpressive price performance, let's take a deeper dive into the factors driving this transportation stock’s decline. In this write-up, we also assess whether ODFL, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), is likely to suffer more going forward.
Old Dominion is facing mounting pressure from a soft domestic economy, with a 9.3% drop in LTL tons per day in the second quarter of 2025, highlighting weaker shipment volumes and lighter freight weights. While the company has maintained pricing discipline, evidenced by a 5.3% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight (ex-fuel), this reliance on yield rather than volume recovery may have limited upside if demand remains depressed.
Competitive risks are also rising, as rivals could adopt aggressive pricing or capacity strategies to win share in a contracting market. Although Old Dominion’s continued investments in capacity and technology position it well for a future rebound, near-term results suggest persistent margin pressure and the possibility of tougher rate competition if economic conditions fail to improve.
ODFL’s Estimate Revisions Continue Heading South
Driven by the aforementioned headwinds, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current-quarter earnings has been revised 10.22% downward over the past 60 days and is pegged at $1.23 per share. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings stands at $4.89 per share, indicating a 4.3% fall over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bearish Industry Rank: The industry to which Old Dominion Freight Line belongs currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 202 (out of 245). Such an unfavorable rank places it in the bottom 18% of Zacks Industries. Studies show that 50% of a stock price movement is directly related to the performance of the industry group it belongs to.
A mediocre stock within a strong group is likely to outclass a robust stock in a weak industry. Reckoning the industry’s performance becomes imperative in this case.
LTM has an expected earnings growth rate of 45% for the current year. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, missed once and met in the remaining one, delivering an average beat of 4.04%.
SKYW currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
SkyWest has an expected earnings growth rate of 28.06% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 21.92%.
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ODFL Stock Down 26.2% Y/Y: Will the Plunge Continue Throughout 2025?
Key Takeaways
Old Dominion Freight Line’s (ODFL - Free Report) shares have had an unimpressive run in a year. Shares of this trucking company have plunged 26.2% in the same period, underperforming its industry’s 22.7% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the unimpressive price performance, let's take a deeper dive into the factors driving this transportation stock’s decline. In this write-up, we also assess whether ODFL, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), is likely to suffer more going forward.
Old Dominion is facing mounting pressure from a soft domestic economy, with a 9.3% drop in LTL tons per day in the second quarter of 2025, highlighting weaker shipment volumes and lighter freight weights. While the company has maintained pricing discipline, evidenced by a 5.3% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight (ex-fuel), this reliance on yield rather than volume recovery may have limited upside if demand remains depressed.
Competitive risks are also rising, as rivals could adopt aggressive pricing or capacity strategies to win share in a contracting market. Although Old Dominion’s continued investments in capacity and technology position it well for a future rebound, near-term results suggest persistent margin pressure and the possibility of tougher rate competition if economic conditions fail to improve.
ODFL’s Estimate Revisions Continue Heading South
Driven by the aforementioned headwinds, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current-quarter earnings has been revised 10.22% downward over the past 60 days and is pegged at $1.23 per share. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings stands at $4.89 per share, indicating a 4.3% fall over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bearish Industry Rank: The industry to which Old Dominion Freight Line belongs currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 202 (out of 245). Such an unfavorable rank places it in the bottom 18% of Zacks Industries. Studies show that 50% of a stock price movement is directly related to the performance of the industry group it belongs to.
A mediocre stock within a strong group is likely to outclass a robust stock in a weak industry. Reckoning the industry’s performance becomes imperative in this case.
Stocks to Consider
Investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may also consider LATAM Airlines Group (LTM - Free Report) and SkyWest (SKYW - Free Report) .
LTM currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
LTM has an expected earnings growth rate of 45% for the current year. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, missed once and met in the remaining one, delivering an average beat of 4.04%.
SKYW currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
SkyWest has an expected earnings growth rate of 28.06% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 21.92%.