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Orchid vs. AGNC Investment: Which REIT Has Stronger Upside Now?
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Key Takeaways
AGNC holds $73.3B in Agency MBS with 89% hedged, offering defensive stability and steady dividends.
ORC boasts a 20.5% yield, $492.5M liquidity and three dividend hikes in the past five years.
ORC earnings are projected to surge 450% in 2025 and 40% in 2026, outpacing AGNC's decline forecasts.
Orchid Island Capital (ORC - Free Report) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC - Free Report) are two well-known names within the mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) industry. Both offer favorable long-term returns to stockholders and a substantial dividend yield.
But which one offers the better opportunity for investors right now? Let us break down the strengths, risks and growth potential of AGNC and ORC.
The Case for AGNC
AGNC Investment follows an active portfolio-management approach, which involves regularly re-evaluating and adjusting its holdings and implementing hedges in response to a changing interest rate and mortgage market environment. The company is positioned more defensively with substantial hedge protection due to market volatility. In recent quarters, it has made significant efforts to reposition its portfolio to mitigate risks associated with interest rates and prepayment uncertainty.
As of June 30, 2025, the company maintained a large interest rate hedge position, covering 89% of the outstanding balance of its Investment Securities Repo, TBA position and other debt. These careful asset-selection strategies may provide greater stability of cash flows and support long-term growth.
The Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) guarantee for the principal and interest payments makes Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) a safer investment choice. Spread widening and mortgage market volatility affected existing Agency MBS investments’ performance. Nonetheless, the long-term investment outlook for the company’s new Agency MBS is favorable. Hence, with $73.3 billion in Agency MBS in its investment portfolio (as of June 30, 2025), AGNC Investment is expected to enjoy attractive risk-adjusted returns within the fixed-income markets.
The company enjoys a decent financial position. It has solid access to attractive funding across a broad spectrum of counterparties and financing conditions. As a result, it has the flexibility to opportunistically enhance its portfolio. As of June 30, 2025, AGNC Investment’s liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $6.4 billion. The company’s leverage increased modestly to 7.6 times at the end of the second quarter (from 7.5 times in the prior quarter).
Given a decent liquidity position, AGNC pays out regular dividends, currently yielding 14.4%. The company has not increased its dividend over the past five years.
The Case for ORC
Orchid invests exclusively in Agency residential MBS, including traditional pass-through securities and structured products issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. This focus limits credit risks but increases sensitivity to interest rate movements and prepayments. Agency residential MBS continue to offer attractive return potential, especially in a steady or declining rate environment. However, the market remains highly competitive, and success will depend heavily on ORC’s execution and risk management.
As the mortgage rates are witnessing a declining trend lately, purchase originations and refinancing activities are improving. Hence, ORC will likely witness book value improvement in the coming period as spreads in the Agency market tighten, driving asset prices. This should also boost net interest spread, improving the portfolio's overall yield. This is expected to support the company’s financials in the upcoming period.
Orchid has a record of paying out regular dividends, currently yielding a staggering 20.6%. The company has increased its dividend three times over the past five years. Given its strong liquidity, its capital distribution seems sustainable. As of June 30, 2025, the company had $492.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and unpledged securities.
In the past year, AGNC and ORC shares rose 8.1% and 4.3%, respectively, compared with the industry’s growth of 5.2%.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of valuation, Orchid is currently trading at a 12-month forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 0.88X. The AGNC stock is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/TB of 1.24X.
Price-to-Tangible Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Further, ORC is trading at a discount compared with the industry average of 1.07X, while AGNC is trading at a premium. Hence, ORC is a better choice for value investors.
How Do Estimates Compare for AGNC & ORC?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates year-over-year declines of 15.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Estimates for both years' earnings have been unchanged over the past month.
Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings reflects a year-over-year rise of 450% and 39.7%. Estimates for both years' earnings have been unchanged over the past month.
Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ORC or AGNC: Which Has Better Upside?
While AGNC Investment remains a solid and reliable mREIT with a disciplined, hedge-protected strategy and a history of steady dividend payouts, Orchid currently provides the more compelling case for income-seeking investors.
ORC has a higher dividend yield and a strong liquidity position, giving it both financial flexibility and a strong foundation to sustain distributions. Its exclusive focus on Agency RMBS keeps credit risk low, while the recent trend of declining mortgage rates and tightening Agency spreads sets the stage for book value appreciation and higher net interest spreads — key drivers of earnings growth.
ORC’s higher earnings growth outlook, with forecasts calling for a 450% upsurge in 2025 and nearly 40% growth in 2026, underscores its ability not only to maintain but grow its already outsized dividend over time. The company’s track record of three dividend increases in the past five years reflects management’s commitment to rewarding shareholders as conditions improve.
For investors prioritizing maximum income, growth potential, and value, ORC offers the more compelling opportunity right now.
Image: Bigstock
Orchid vs. AGNC Investment: Which REIT Has Stronger Upside Now?
Key Takeaways
Orchid Island Capital (ORC - Free Report) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC - Free Report) are two well-known names within the mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) industry. Both offer favorable long-term returns to stockholders and a substantial dividend yield.
But which one offers the better opportunity for investors right now? Let us break down the strengths, risks and growth potential of AGNC and ORC.
The Case for AGNC
AGNC Investment follows an active portfolio-management approach, which involves regularly re-evaluating and adjusting its holdings and implementing hedges in response to a changing interest rate and mortgage market environment. The company is positioned more defensively with substantial hedge protection due to market volatility. In recent quarters, it has made significant efforts to reposition its portfolio to mitigate risks associated with interest rates and prepayment uncertainty.
As of June 30, 2025, the company maintained a large interest rate hedge position, covering 89% of the outstanding balance of its Investment Securities Repo, TBA position and other debt. These careful asset-selection strategies may provide greater stability of cash flows and support long-term growth.
The Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) guarantee for the principal and interest payments makes Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) a safer investment choice. Spread widening and mortgage market volatility affected existing Agency MBS investments’ performance. Nonetheless, the long-term investment outlook for the company’s new Agency MBS is favorable. Hence, with $73.3 billion in Agency MBS in its investment portfolio (as of June 30, 2025), AGNC Investment is expected to enjoy attractive risk-adjusted returns within the fixed-income markets.
The company enjoys a decent financial position. It has solid access to attractive funding across a broad spectrum of counterparties and financing conditions. As a result, it has the flexibility to opportunistically enhance its portfolio. As of June 30, 2025, AGNC Investment’s liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $6.4 billion. The company’s leverage increased modestly to 7.6 times at the end of the second quarter (from 7.5 times in the prior quarter).
Given a decent liquidity position, AGNC pays out regular dividends, currently yielding 14.4%. The company has not increased its dividend over the past five years.
The Case for ORC
Orchid invests exclusively in Agency residential MBS, including traditional pass-through securities and structured products issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. This focus limits credit risks but increases sensitivity to interest rate movements and prepayments. Agency residential MBS continue to offer attractive return potential, especially in a steady or declining rate environment. However, the market remains highly competitive, and success will depend heavily on ORC’s execution and risk management.
As the mortgage rates are witnessing a declining trend lately, purchase originations and refinancing activities are improving. Hence, ORC will likely witness book value improvement in the coming period as spreads in the Agency market tighten, driving asset prices. This should also boost net interest spread, improving the portfolio's overall yield. This is expected to support the company’s financials in the upcoming period.
Orchid has a record of paying out regular dividends, currently yielding a staggering 20.6%. The company has increased its dividend three times over the past five years. Given its strong liquidity, its capital distribution seems sustainable. As of June 30, 2025, the company had $492.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and unpledged securities.
AGNC & ORC: Price Performance & Valuation Analysis
In the past year, AGNC and ORC shares rose 8.1% and 4.3%, respectively, compared with the industry’s growth of 5.2%.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of valuation, Orchid is currently trading at a 12-month forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 0.88X. The AGNC stock is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/TB of 1.24X.
Price-to-Tangible Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Further, ORC is trading at a discount compared with the industry average of 1.07X, while AGNC is trading at a premium. Hence, ORC is a better choice for value investors.
How Do Estimates Compare for AGNC & ORC?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates year-over-year declines of 15.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Estimates for both years' earnings have been unchanged over the past month.
Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings reflects a year-over-year rise of 450% and 39.7%. Estimates for both years' earnings have been unchanged over the past month.
Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ORC or AGNC: Which Has Better Upside?
While AGNC Investment remains a solid and reliable mREIT with a disciplined, hedge-protected strategy and a history of steady dividend payouts, Orchid currently provides the more compelling case for income-seeking investors.
ORC has a higher dividend yield and a strong liquidity position, giving it both financial flexibility and a strong foundation to sustain distributions. Its exclusive focus on Agency RMBS keeps credit risk low, while the recent trend of declining mortgage rates and tightening Agency spreads sets the stage for book value appreciation and higher net interest spreads — key drivers of earnings growth.
ORC’s higher earnings growth outlook, with forecasts calling for a 450% upsurge in 2025 and nearly 40% growth in 2026, underscores its ability not only to maintain but grow its already outsized dividend over time. The company’s track record of three dividend increases in the past five years reflects management’s commitment to rewarding shareholders as conditions improve.
For investors prioritizing maximum income, growth potential, and value, ORC offers the more compelling opportunity right now.
At present, ORC and AGNC carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.