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ARCC vs. HTGC: Which BDC Has More Upside as Rates Come Down?

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Key Takeaways

  • ARCC's $27.9B portfolio spans 560 firms, but faces tariff risks across key sectors.
  • HTGC's $4.2B portfolio leans on software and drug discovery, countering tariff pressure.
  • HTGC trades at a lower forward P/E than ARCC and shows stronger 2026 earnings prospects.

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC - Free Report) and Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC - Free Report) are two leading Business Development Companies (BDCs) that provide debt financing to private companies. While ARCC focuses on middle-market firms across various industries, HTGC specializes in venture debt, targeting high-growth technology and life sciences sectors.

With interest rates coming down, demand for refinancing and originations is expected to rise. Thus, BDCs are expected to gain from this turnaround in the operating backdrop. Hence, a question arises: which BDC stock is better positioned, Ares Capital with its broad exposure and scale or Hercules Capital with its tech-focused growth strategy? 

Let’s dive into their fundamentals, financial performance and growth outlook to find out which one presents a more compelling opportunity right now.

The Case for Ares Capital

Ares Capital's investments in corporate borrowers generally range from $30 million to $500 million, while its investments in power generation projects are between $10 million and $200 million. It offers customized financing solutions, ranging from senior debt instruments to equity capital, with a focus on senior secured debt.

In the first half of 2025, ARCC witnessed year-over-year growth in total investment income. This was largely driven by an increase in interest income from investments, capital structuring service fees and other income. Also, the company recorded decent portfolio exits and gross commitments. 

In the last five years, Ares Capital’s total investment income witnessed a CAGR of 14.4%, driven by higher demand for personalized financing solutions, leading to increased investment commitments. Also, the company originated $15.1 billion, $6 billion, $9.9 billion, $15.6 billion, $6.7 billion and $7.3 billion in 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively, in gross investment commitments to new and existing portfolio companies.

As of June 30, 2025, ARCC had a diversified investment portfolio of $27.9 billion in more than 560 portfolio companies. It had 24% of its investments in software & services and 13% in healthcare equipment & services. Other major investment areas were financial services, which include investment in Ivy Hill Asset Management (10%), commercial & professional services (10%) and insurance services (6%). While this reduces concentration risk and enhances the sustainability of total investment income, many of these industries are expected to face headwinds because of tariffs.

The Case of Hercules Capital

Hercules Capital's investments generally fall between $15 million and $40 million. It offers customized financing solutions ranging from senior debt to equity capital, with a focus on structured debt with warrants. It invests in companies that have been in business for at least six months to one year before the date of investment and expects these investments to generate revenues within at least two to four years.

In the first half of 2025, HTGC witnessed slight growth in total investment income. Also, the company recorded a rise in gross new debt and equity commitments during the period. 

In the last decade, Hercules Capital’s total investment income witnessed a CAGR of 12.1%. Additionally, the company closed $2.6 billion, $3.1 billion, $2.2 billion and $2.7 billion in new debt and equity commitments in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. Driven by the rise in demand for customized financing and a robust deal pipeline, total new commitments are expected to keep rising. 

As of June 30, 2025, HTGC had an investment portfolio of $4.2 billion. It had 35% of its portfolio investments (at fair value) in software companies and 25% in drug discovery & development companies. Other major investment areas were other healthcare services (18%) and consumer & business services (9%). With a focus mainly on the technology and life science sectors, HTGC is better placed to counter tariffs.

How Do Earnings Estimates Compare for ARCC & HTGC?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARCC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates a 13.7% and 0.9% decline for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Over the past two months, earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised lower. This indicates analysts’ bearish sentiments.

Earnings Trend
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

On the contrary, analysts are more optimistic about HTGC’s prospects. While the consensus mark for 2025 earnings suggests a 4% decline, for 2026, it is expected to grow 5%. Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised upward, while the same for the next year has moved lower. 

Earnings Trend 
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ARCC & HTGC: Price Performance & Valuation Analysis

In the past year, shares of Hercules Capital have declined 2%, while Ares Capital is up 1.3%. Both have fared better than the industry, which lost 5.9% in the same time frame.

One-Year Price Performance
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Valuation-wise, ARCC is currently trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 10.40X. The HTGC stock, on the other hand, is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 9.66X. 

P/E F12M
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Therefore, Hercules Capital is inexpensive compared to Ares Capital.

ARCC or HTGC: Which Stock Has Solid Prospects?

With the operating environment gradually turning favorable, Hercules Capital is better positioned for long-term growth than Ares Capital. HTGC’s focus on venture debt in high-growth technology and life sciences sectors provides a structural edge, while its rising investment commitments and projected 2026 earnings growth point to sustained momentum. The stock also looks appealing on a valuation basis.

By contrast, ARCC’s broader industry exposure leaves it more vulnerable to tariff-related headwinds. Analysts have revised their earnings estimates downward, and the stock’s premium valuation limits near-term upside. Although ARCC offers income stability through a diversified portfolio and reliable dividends, HTGC’s sector specialization, stronger efficiency and superior earnings trajectory make it the more compelling choice for investors seeking long-term returns.

At present, HTGC and ARCC carry a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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