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JPMorgan's Shares Touch an All-time High: Too Late to Get in?
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Key Takeaways
JPMorgan reached an all-time high of $316.31, rising 30.4% year to date.
A $50B buyback and 7% dividend hike highlight JPMorgan's capital return push.
Rate cuts may pressure NII, but fee income, M&A and trading are set to gain.
JPMorgan’s (JPM - Free Report) shares reached a new all-time high of $316.31 yesterday, driven by optimism for the easing rate cycle and ongoing capital return momentum following its new $50 billion buyback and 7% dividend increase.
This year, JPM stock has gained 30.4% compared with the S&P Index’s rally of 14.1%. In the same time frame, its close peers, Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) , were up 17.6% and 46.3%, respectively.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Will JPMorgan stock be able to sustain its momentum into the last quarter of 2025 and beyond? Let’s check the factors driving it and then decide whether to buy the stock at current levels or wait for a better entry point.
Interest Rate Cuts & JPM’s Net Interest Income (NII)
JPMorgan’s balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive. Hence, the Fed rate cut will likely put downward pressure on the company’s NII. Lower rates will lead to reduced asset yields on variable-rate loans and securities, compressing margins unless deposits or funding costs reprice faster.
JPMorgan expects the near-term impact of rate cuts to be manageable, driven by robust loan demand and deposit growth. NII is projected to be $95.5 billion in 2025, up more than 3% year over year. NII is likely to face some headwind on an exit rate going into next year as rates come down from the current levels.
JPM’s NII recorded a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 10.1%, mainly driven by the high-interest rate regime since 2022 and the acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023. The trend continued in the first half of 2025, driven by solid loan and deposit growth and higher revolving balances in Card Services.
Similarly, Bank of America and Citigroup are expected to witness a modest NII decline over the medium term as the central bank lowers interest rates. Both expect continued NII expansion in 2025, driven by strong loan demand and deposit growth. Bank of America projects NII to rise 6-7% in 2025, reaching $15.5-$15.7 billion in the fourth quarter, even as the Fed initiates rate cuts. Likewise, Citigroup expects 2025 NII (excluding Markets) to grow around 4%, indicating improved loan demand and higher deposit balances.
JPMorgan’s Fee Income to See More Upside From Lower Rates
The shift toward easier monetary policy is expected to support client activity, deal flow and asset values. Thus, JPMorgan’s non-interest income streams will likely see impressive improvement.
Investment Banking (IB) & Advisory Fees: Lower borrowing costs will support the revival of corporate financing activity, encouraging debt issuance, M&As and equity offerings. After a slow deal environment in the last two years, rate cuts are expected to spark a solid resurgence in capital markets, boosting JPMorgan’s advisory and underwriting fees. The company continues to rank #1 for global IB fees, garnering a wallet share of 8.9% at the end of the first half of 2025. The healthy IB pipeline, an active M&A market and JPMorgan’s leadership position in the IB business ensure stronger growth as the macro situation changes.
Markets Revenues (FICC & Equities): Rate transitions often fuel volatility in fixed income, currencies and commodities. Thus, JPMorgan, with the industry’s leading trading desk, stands to gain from increased client hedging and speculative activity. Equities trading is also expected to benefit from higher volumes as investors reposition portfolios for a lower-rate environment. While structural normalization in trading activity is inevitable over time, the bank’s broad product coverage positions it to capture upside during volatility spikes.
Wealth & Asset Management Fees: Declining yields generally push investors to equities and alternative assets. JPMorgan’s asset management business benefits from rising assets under management (AUM) and higher fee revenues as markets rally. Stronger investor sentiment is expected to drive inflows into the company’s private banking and wealth platforms.
Branch Openings & Opportunistic Acquisitions to Aid JPM
With 4,994 branches as of June 30, 2025, more than any other U.S. bank and a presence in all 48 contiguous states, JPMorgan continues to invest in brick-and-mortar to strengthen its competitive edge in relationship banking, despite the digital shift. In 2024, JPMorgan opened nearly 150 branches and plans to add 500 more by 2027 to deepen relationships and boost cross-selling across mortgages, loans, investments and credit cards.
JPMorgan isn’t alone in branch expansion. Bank of America is growing its 3,664-center network, with 40 new openings last year and 110 more by 2027, despite most interactions being digital.
Additionally, JPMorgan has expanded through strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank, partnerships with Cleareye.ai and Aumni, and the 2023 purchase of First Republic Bank. These moves boosted profits and supported its strategy to diversify revenues and grow digital and fee-based offerings.
JPMorgan’s Fortress Balance Sheet and Solid Liquidity
As of June 30, 2025, JPM had a total debt of $485.1 billion (the majority of this is long-term in nature). The company's cash and due from banks and deposits with banks were $420.3 billion on the same date. The company maintains long-term issuer ratings A-/AA-/A1 from Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively.
Hence, JPMorgan continues to reward shareholders handsomely. It cleared this year’s stress test impressively and has announced an increase in its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share, as well as authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion.
This is the second time this year that JPMorgan has hiked its quarterly dividends. In March, it raised its quarterly dividend by 12% to $1.40 per share. In the last five years, it hiked dividends six times, with an annualized growth rate of 7.99%.
Similar to JPM, Bank of America and Citigroup have cleared the 2025 stress test. Following this, Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 8% to 28 cents per share and authorized a new $40 billion share repurchase program, effective Aug. 1, 2025. Citigroup also announced a dividend hike of 7% to 60 cents per share. It is continuing with the previously announced buyback plan, which had $16.3 billion worth of authorization remaining as of June 30, 2025.
JPMorgan’s Asset Quality
Lower rates will likely support JPMorgan's asset quality, as declining rates will ease debt-service burdens and improve borrower solvency. The overall effect is expected to be moderate and vary by loan segment and macro conditions. Variable-rate consumer and leveraged corporate portfolios are likely to see the most direct benefit, reflecting the lower risk of near-term credit losses as rates fall.
JPMorgan expects that anticipated Fed cuts will help stabilize or even modestly improve overall credit performance this year, especially in consumer and corporate loan books, as long as the U.S. economy remains resilient. Management anticipates the card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.6% for 2025.
How to Approach JPMorgan Stock?
From a valuation perspective, the stock appears expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 15.55X. This is above the industry’s 15.25X, reflecting a stretched valuation.
P/E F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Also, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Bank of America and Citigroup. At present, Bank of America has a forward 12-month P/E of 12.57X, and Citigroup is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 11.27X.
Further, earnings estimates for JPMorgan for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past month. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish analyst sentiments for the stock.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2025 earnings implies a marginal rise year over year. Additionally, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggests 2.7% growth.
JPM Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the recent rate cut will likely trim JPMorgan’s lending margins, the overall shift toward easier monetary policy is likely to support client activity, deal flow and asset values, offsetting the pressure on NII and positioning the company for stronger non-interest revenue growth.
With a fortress balance sheet, robust capital returns and a proven ability to grow through acquisitions and branch expansion, JPMorgan remains the most resilient U.S. bank. Continued dividend hikes, a massive buyback program and upward earnings revisions reinforce its premium valuation and support the case for owning the stock.
Image: Bigstock
JPMorgan's Shares Touch an All-time High: Too Late to Get in?
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan’s (JPM - Free Report) shares reached a new all-time high of $316.31 yesterday, driven by optimism for the easing rate cycle and ongoing capital return momentum following its new $50 billion buyback and 7% dividend increase.
This year, JPM stock has gained 30.4% compared with the S&P Index’s rally of 14.1%. In the same time frame, its close peers, Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) , were up 17.6% and 46.3%, respectively.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Will JPMorgan stock be able to sustain its momentum into the last quarter of 2025 and beyond? Let’s check the factors driving it and then decide whether to buy the stock at current levels or wait for a better entry point.
Interest Rate Cuts & JPM’s Net Interest Income (NII)
JPMorgan’s balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive. Hence, the Fed rate cut will likely put downward pressure on the company’s NII. Lower rates will lead to reduced asset yields on variable-rate loans and securities, compressing margins unless deposits or funding costs reprice faster.
JPMorgan expects the near-term impact of rate cuts to be manageable, driven by robust loan demand and deposit growth. NII is projected to be $95.5 billion in 2025, up more than 3% year over year. NII is likely to face some headwind on an exit rate going into next year as rates come down from the current levels.
JPM’s NII recorded a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 10.1%, mainly driven by the high-interest rate regime since 2022 and the acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023. The trend continued in the first half of 2025, driven by solid loan and deposit growth and higher revolving balances in Card Services.
Similarly, Bank of America and Citigroup are expected to witness a modest NII decline over the medium term as the central bank lowers interest rates. Both expect continued NII expansion in 2025, driven by strong loan demand and deposit growth. Bank of America projects NII to rise 6-7% in 2025, reaching $15.5-$15.7 billion in the fourth quarter, even as the Fed initiates rate cuts. Likewise, Citigroup expects 2025 NII (excluding Markets) to grow around 4%, indicating improved loan demand and higher deposit balances.
JPMorgan’s Fee Income to See More Upside From Lower Rates
The shift toward easier monetary policy is expected to support client activity, deal flow and asset values. Thus, JPMorgan’s non-interest income streams will likely see impressive improvement.
Investment Banking (IB) & Advisory Fees: Lower borrowing costs will support the revival of corporate financing activity, encouraging debt issuance, M&As and equity offerings. After a slow deal environment in the last two years, rate cuts are expected to spark a solid resurgence in capital markets, boosting JPMorgan’s advisory and underwriting fees. The company continues to rank #1 for global IB fees, garnering a wallet share of 8.9% at the end of the first half of 2025. The healthy IB pipeline, an active M&A market and JPMorgan’s leadership position in the IB business ensure stronger growth as the macro situation changes.
Markets Revenues (FICC & Equities): Rate transitions often fuel volatility in fixed income, currencies and commodities. Thus, JPMorgan, with the industry’s leading trading desk, stands to gain from increased client hedging and speculative activity. Equities trading is also expected to benefit from higher volumes as investors reposition portfolios for a lower-rate environment. While structural normalization in trading activity is inevitable over time, the bank’s broad product coverage positions it to capture upside during volatility spikes.
Wealth & Asset Management Fees: Declining yields generally push investors to equities and alternative assets. JPMorgan’s asset management business benefits from rising assets under management (AUM) and higher fee revenues as markets rally. Stronger investor sentiment is expected to drive inflows into the company’s private banking and wealth platforms.
Branch Openings & Opportunistic Acquisitions to Aid JPM
With 4,994 branches as of June 30, 2025, more than any other U.S. bank and a presence in all 48 contiguous states, JPMorgan continues to invest in brick-and-mortar to strengthen its competitive edge in relationship banking, despite the digital shift. In 2024, JPMorgan opened nearly 150 branches and plans to add 500 more by 2027 to deepen relationships and boost cross-selling across mortgages, loans, investments and credit cards.
JPMorgan isn’t alone in branch expansion. Bank of America is growing its 3,664-center network, with 40 new openings last year and 110 more by 2027, despite most interactions being digital.
Additionally, JPMorgan has expanded through strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank, partnerships with Cleareye.ai and Aumni, and the 2023 purchase of First Republic Bank. These moves boosted profits and supported its strategy to diversify revenues and grow digital and fee-based offerings.
JPMorgan’s Fortress Balance Sheet and Solid Liquidity
As of June 30, 2025, JPM had a total debt of $485.1 billion (the majority of this is long-term in nature). The company's cash and due from banks and deposits with banks were $420.3 billion on the same date. The company maintains long-term issuer ratings A-/AA-/A1 from Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively.
Hence, JPMorgan continues to reward shareholders handsomely. It cleared this year’s stress test impressively and has announced an increase in its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share, as well as authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion.
This is the second time this year that JPMorgan has hiked its quarterly dividends. In March, it raised its quarterly dividend by 12% to $1.40 per share. In the last five years, it hiked dividends six times, with an annualized growth rate of 7.99%.
Similar to JPM, Bank of America and Citigroup have cleared the 2025 stress test. Following this, Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 8% to 28 cents per share and authorized a new $40 billion share repurchase program, effective Aug. 1, 2025. Citigroup also announced a dividend hike of 7% to 60 cents per share. It is continuing with the previously announced buyback plan, which had $16.3 billion worth of authorization remaining as of June 30, 2025.
JPMorgan’s Asset Quality
Lower rates will likely support JPMorgan's asset quality, as declining rates will ease debt-service burdens and improve borrower solvency. The overall effect is expected to be moderate and vary by loan segment and macro conditions. Variable-rate consumer and leveraged corporate portfolios are likely to see the most direct benefit, reflecting the lower risk of near-term credit losses as rates fall.
JPMorgan expects that anticipated Fed cuts will help stabilize or even modestly improve overall credit performance this year, especially in consumer and corporate loan books, as long as the U.S. economy remains resilient. Management anticipates the card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.6% for 2025.
How to Approach JPMorgan Stock?
From a valuation perspective, the stock appears expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 15.55X. This is above the industry’s 15.25X, reflecting a stretched valuation.
P/E F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Also, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Bank of America and Citigroup. At present, Bank of America has a forward 12-month P/E of 12.57X, and Citigroup is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 11.27X.
Further, earnings estimates for JPMorgan for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past month. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish analyst sentiments for the stock.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2025 earnings implies a marginal rise year over year. Additionally, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggests 2.7% growth.
JPM Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the recent rate cut will likely trim JPMorgan’s lending margins, the overall shift toward easier monetary policy is likely to support client activity, deal flow and asset values, offsetting the pressure on NII and positioning the company for stronger non-interest revenue growth.
With a fortress balance sheet, robust capital returns and a proven ability to grow through acquisitions and branch expansion, JPMorgan remains the most resilient U.S. bank. Continued dividend hikes, a massive buyback program and upward earnings revisions reinforce its premium valuation and support the case for owning the stock.
JPM currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.