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Canadian Pacific Banks on Dividends Amid Freight Challenges

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Key Takeaways

  • CP's merger with Kansas City Southern created the first Canada-US-Mexico rail network.
  • Freight gains in grain, potash, automotive and intermodal highlight resilient revenue growth.
  • Rising expenses, heavy capex and high debt levels pose risks to margins and flexibility.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP - Free Report) is bolstered by its robust performance and diversified freight mix. Shareholder-friendly initiatives are also encouraging. However, surging expenses have been acting as a major headwind.

Factors Favoring CP

Canadian Pacific is positioning itself as a long-term growth story with the Kansas City Southern acquisition. The creation of the first rail network connecting Canada, the United States and Mexico is a structural advantage that cannot be easily replicated by peers. The Surface Transportation Board’s approval, the first such clearance in more than two decades, signals both strategic importance and regulatory rarity of this merger. Management’s guidance of high-single-digit revenue growth through 2028 reflects the expanded freight portfolio’s strength.

The company’s freight revenue trajectory validates the merger’s potential. Growth has been resilient, with gains across key commodity groups such as grain, potash, automotive and intermodal. Even amid supply-chain disruptions, CP achieved double-digit expansion in 2022 and maintained momentum through 2024 and into 2025, though growth rates are normalizing. The steady uptick in revenue ton-miles and per-carload metrics highlights efficient operations and pricing power.

On the shareholder returns front, the consistency in dividend payouts underlines management’s commitment to capital discipline. Steady growth in dividends through 2022, followed by sustained payouts in subsequent years, provides stability in volatile freight markets. Such shareholder-friendly policies enhance CP’s investment appeal, particularly in uncertain macro conditions wherein dividends serve as both hedge and source of investor confidence.

Some other dividend-paying stocks in the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry are Norfolk Southern (NSC - Free Report) and Union Pacific (UNP - Free Report) .

Norfolk Southern underscores its shareholder commitment with steady dividends and buybacks, returning $1.847 billion in 2023 and maintaining strong payouts in 2024. In August 2025, the company paid out a quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share. The company paid out dividends on its common stock for 172 consecutive quarters since its formation in 1982.

Union Pacific maintains a strong pro-shareholder stance, backed by a solid free cash flow. In 2023, it generated $1.54 billion in free cash flow and returned $3.9 billion to investors. Dividends have seen steady hikes, with the latest increase to $1.38 per share in July 2025. The company paid out dividends for 126 consecutive years and, in the first half of 2025, returned $4.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Dividend stocks generally belong to mature companies that are less susceptible to significant market swings and act as a hedge against uncertainty-induced stock market volatility, as is the case currently. They offer downside protection with their consistent increase in payouts. These companies also have strong fundamentals, such as a sustainable business model, a long track of profitability, rising cash flows and a strong balance sheet.

CP: Key Risks to Watch

Canadian Pacific’s cost structure has been concerning despite its strong revenue momentum. Operating expenses have been on an upward trajectory, with fuel inflation driving a 31% spike in 2021 and keeping expenses elevated through 2022 and 2024. While expense growth has moderated in the first half of 2025, persistent cost pressures may weigh on margins, particularly if oil prices remain volatile.

Leverage is another red flag. The company’s C$21.2 billion long-term debt versus just C$799 million in cash underscores its highly leveraged balance sheet. This imbalance reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest rate risks, especially in a rising-rate environment.

Heavy capital spending further complicates the outlook. With capex at C$2.86 billion in 2024 and a planned C$2.9 billion in 2025, the free cash flow generation may remain constrained. While these investments are necessary to support network expansion and efficiency gains, they limit near-term capacity to deleverage.

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