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JPM Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Results?
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Key Takeaways
JPMorgan's Q3 revenues are expected to rise 4.7% year over year to $44.66 billion.
Earnings estimates for the quarter were revised up 1%, implying a 10.5% year-over-year increase.
Markets and IB revenues are likely to grow strongly in Q3, with expenses and NPLs also expected to climb.
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 14. As the largest American bank, its earnings are closely watched for insights into the financial sector, often serving as a bellwether for the quarterly performance of other banks.
JPM’s first-half performance was solid, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading, as well as impressive growth in credit card and wholesale loans. The company’s upcoming results will likely be decent. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $44.66 billion suggests a 4.7% year-over-year rise.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has moved almost 1% north to $4.83. This indicates a 10.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level, as robust capital markets performance offers support.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JPMorgan has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 11.95%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Impact JPMorgan’s Q3 Results
Net Interest Income (NII): In September, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. This is less likely to have hampered JPMorgan’s NII as it occurred toward the end of the third quarter. As the rates were relatively stable for most of the quarter, funding/deposit costs are likely to have stabilized. Also, the overall lending scenario was impressive. Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial, real estate and consumer loans was robust in the first two months of the quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (reported) of $24.2 billion suggests a 3.4% rise on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for NII implies growth of 2.9% to $24.1 billion.
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the third quarter of 2025 rebounded impressively from the lows witnessed in April and May following President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. As corporates adapted to the rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, bigger M&A deals kicked in. Also, JPMorgan’s leadership in the space is likely to have aided advisory fees to some extent.
The IPO market in the third quarter performed impressively, with a significant increase in both the number of IPOs and the amount of capital raised. Several factors, including strategic tariff pauses and positive economic data, drove the rise. Further, global bond issuance volume was decent. Thus, growth in JPM’s underwriting fees (accounting for almost 60% of total IB fees) is expected to have been modest during the to-be-reported quarter.
At the Barclays Annual Global Financial Services Conference in early September, Douglas Petno, co-CEO of Commercial & Investment Banking (CIB), said IB revenues in the third quarter are expected to grow in low double digits year over year on the back of solid pipelines.
The consensus estimate for IB revenues (in the CIB segment) of $2.69 billion implies a jump of 14.5% from the prior-year quarter’s level. We expect the metric to be $2.65 billion.
Markets Revenues: Client activity and market volatility were solid in the third quarter. The uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and changes in the Fed’s policy stance drove client activity. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Hence, JPMorgan is likely to record robust growth in markets revenues (comprising nearly 20% of the company’s total revenues) this time around.
Management expects markets revenues in the third quarter to rise at a high-teens percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity markets revenues is pegged at $2.93 billion, suggesting a rise of 12% from the prior-year quarter’s level. The consensus estimate for fixed-income markets revenues of $5.34 billion indicates growth of 17.9%. We project equity markets revenues and fixed-income markets revenues of $2.9 billion and $5.38 billion, respectively.
Mortgage Banking Fees: Mortgage rates declined substantially in the third quarter, from the levels observed at the beginning of the year. The quarter saw rates fluctuate, but they remained within a range. Hence, refinancing activities and origination volume were decent. Though mortgage banking fees are likely to have witnessed some improvement at JPMorgan, touching the record number of the prior-year quarter is expected to have been a challenge.
The consensus estimate for mortgage fees and related income of $346.4 million implies a 13.8% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s level. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $313.2 million.
Expenses: JPMorgan’s plan of entering new markets by opening branches, which is already on track, along with inorganic expansion efforts, is likely to have resulted in an increase in operating expenses in the third quarter. Also, investments in technology to strengthen digital offerings might have led to higher costs.
Our estimate for non-interest expenses is pinned at $23.9 billion, up 5.8% year over year.
Asset Quality: JPMorgan is less likely to have set aside a huge amount of money for potential delinquent loans, given the expectations of two more interest rate cuts amid the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation. Our estimate for provision for credit losses is pegged at $2.64 billion, down 15.2% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans (NPLs) of $10 billion implies a 24.1% surge year over year. The consensus estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) of $10.7 billion suggests a 24.6% jump. Our estimates for NPAs and NPLs are pegged at $9.29 billion and $9.09 billion, respectively.
What Our Model Unveils for JPMorgan
Per our proven model, we can’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for JPMorgan this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
JPMorgan has an Earnings ESP of +0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
JPMorgan shares delivered a subdued performance in the third quarter, lagging the S&P 500 Index. Additionally, the stock lagged behind its key peers, such as Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) .
3Q25 JPM Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Citigroup is also slated to announce third-quarter numbers on Oct. 14, while Bank of America will release results on Oct. 15. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
JPM shares appear expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 15.13X, which is above the industry’s 14.97X.
Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
On the other hand, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Citigroup and Bank of America. At present, Citigroup has a forward P/E of 10.61X, while Bank of America’s forward P/E is 12.22X.
How to Play JPMorgan Stock Before Q3 Earnings?
JPMorgan Chase stands to benefit from its scale, diversified operations and leading market presence across multiple business lines. The 2023 acquisition of First Republic Bank continues to support its financial performance, while the company’s ongoing regional expansion and cross-selling initiatives are expected to drive growth going forward. Although these initiatives will likely result in elevated expenses, they reinforce JPMorgan’s competitive edge and long-term potential.
However, the volatile nature of capital markets is likely to keep fee income growth subdued, and persistent asset quality pressures may remain a concern.
Investors should closely monitor management’s commentary on 2025 NII guidance and IB outlook during the upcoming third-quarter earnings call. Moreover, macroeconomic trends and policy developments that materially impact the company’s performance trajectory should be taken into consideration.
Existing shareholders may continue to hold JPM stock, given its strong fundamentals and proven resilience. Potential investors, on the other hand, should carefully weigh these factors and assess their risk tolerance before initiating new positions.
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JPM Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Results?
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 14. As the largest American bank, its earnings are closely watched for insights into the financial sector, often serving as a bellwether for the quarterly performance of other banks.
JPM’s first-half performance was solid, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading, as well as impressive growth in credit card and wholesale loans. The company’s upcoming results will likely be decent. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $44.66 billion suggests a 4.7% year-over-year rise.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has moved almost 1% north to $4.83. This indicates a 10.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level, as robust capital markets performance offers support.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JPMorgan has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 11.95%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Impact JPMorgan’s Q3 Results
Net Interest Income (NII): In September, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. This is less likely to have hampered JPMorgan’s NII as it occurred toward the end of the third quarter. As the rates were relatively stable for most of the quarter, funding/deposit costs are likely to have stabilized. Also, the overall lending scenario was impressive. Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial, real estate and consumer loans was robust in the first two months of the quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (reported) of $24.2 billion suggests a 3.4% rise on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for NII implies growth of 2.9% to $24.1 billion.
Investment Banking (IB) Fees: Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the third quarter of 2025 rebounded impressively from the lows witnessed in April and May following President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. As corporates adapted to the rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, bigger M&A deals kicked in. Also, JPMorgan’s leadership in the space is likely to have aided advisory fees to some extent.
The IPO market in the third quarter performed impressively, with a significant increase in both the number of IPOs and the amount of capital raised. Several factors, including strategic tariff pauses and positive economic data, drove the rise. Further, global bond issuance volume was decent. Thus, growth in JPM’s underwriting fees (accounting for almost 60% of total IB fees) is expected to have been modest during the to-be-reported quarter.
At the Barclays Annual Global Financial Services Conference in early September, Douglas Petno, co-CEO of Commercial & Investment Banking (CIB), said IB revenues in the third quarter are expected to grow in low double digits year over year on the back of solid pipelines.
The consensus estimate for IB revenues (in the CIB segment) of $2.69 billion implies a jump of 14.5% from the prior-year quarter’s level. We expect the metric to be $2.65 billion.
Markets Revenues: Client activity and market volatility were solid in the third quarter. The uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and changes in the Fed’s policy stance drove client activity. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Hence, JPMorgan is likely to record robust growth in markets revenues (comprising nearly 20% of the company’s total revenues) this time around.
Management expects markets revenues in the third quarter to rise at a high-teens percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity markets revenues is pegged at $2.93 billion, suggesting a rise of 12% from the prior-year quarter’s level. The consensus estimate for fixed-income markets revenues of $5.34 billion indicates growth of 17.9%. We project equity markets revenues and fixed-income markets revenues of $2.9 billion and $5.38 billion, respectively.
Mortgage Banking Fees: Mortgage rates declined substantially in the third quarter, from the levels observed at the beginning of the year. The quarter saw rates fluctuate, but they remained within a range. Hence, refinancing activities and origination volume were decent. Though mortgage banking fees are likely to have witnessed some improvement at JPMorgan, touching the record number of the prior-year quarter is expected to have been a challenge.
The consensus estimate for mortgage fees and related income of $346.4 million implies a 13.8% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s level. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $313.2 million.
Expenses: JPMorgan’s plan of entering new markets by opening branches, which is already on track, along with inorganic expansion efforts, is likely to have resulted in an increase in operating expenses in the third quarter. Also, investments in technology to strengthen digital offerings might have led to higher costs.
Our estimate for non-interest expenses is pinned at $23.9 billion, up 5.8% year over year.
Asset Quality: JPMorgan is less likely to have set aside a huge amount of money for potential delinquent loans, given the expectations of two more interest rate cuts amid the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation. Our estimate for provision for credit losses is pegged at $2.64 billion, down 15.2% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans (NPLs) of $10 billion implies a 24.1% surge year over year. The consensus estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) of $10.7 billion suggests a 24.6% jump. Our estimates for NPAs and NPLs are pegged at $9.29 billion and $9.09 billion, respectively.
What Our Model Unveils for JPMorgan
Per our proven model, we can’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for JPMorgan this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
JPMorgan has an Earnings ESP of +0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
JPM carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
JPM’s Price Performance & Valuation Analysis
JPMorgan shares delivered a subdued performance in the third quarter, lagging the S&P 500 Index. Additionally, the stock lagged behind its key peers, such as Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) .
3Q25 JPM Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Citigroup is also slated to announce third-quarter numbers on Oct. 14, while Bank of America will release results on Oct. 15. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
JPM shares appear expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 15.13X, which is above the industry’s 14.97X.
Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
On the other hand, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Citigroup and Bank of America. At present, Citigroup has a forward P/E of 10.61X, while Bank of America’s forward P/E is 12.22X.
How to Play JPMorgan Stock Before Q3 Earnings?
JPMorgan Chase stands to benefit from its scale, diversified operations and leading market presence across multiple business lines. The 2023 acquisition of First Republic Bank continues to support its financial performance, while the company’s ongoing regional expansion and cross-selling initiatives are expected to drive growth going forward. Although these initiatives will likely result in elevated expenses, they reinforce JPMorgan’s competitive edge and long-term potential.
However, the volatile nature of capital markets is likely to keep fee income growth subdued, and persistent asset quality pressures may remain a concern.
Investors should closely monitor management’s commentary on 2025 NII guidance and IB outlook during the upcoming third-quarter earnings call. Moreover, macroeconomic trends and policy developments that materially impact the company’s performance trajectory should be taken into consideration.
Existing shareholders may continue to hold JPM stock, given its strong fundamentals and proven resilience. Potential investors, on the other hand, should carefully weigh these factors and assess their risk tolerance before initiating new positions.