Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Growth in AUM Likely to Support BlackRock's Q3 Earnings

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • BlackRock is set to report 3Q25 results on Oct. 14, with revenues and earnings expected to rise y/y.
  • AUM growth, driven by ETF strength, new crypto funds, and HPS and ElmTree acquisitions, supports performance.
  • Higher revenues from advisory and tech services expected, though expenses likely rose with expansion efforts.

BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 14, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have improved year over year.

BLK’s second-quarter 2025 earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results benefited from a rise in revenues. Assets under management (AUM) witnessed robust growth and touched a record high of $12.52 trillion, driven by net inflows, market appreciation and favorable forex impact.

BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.65%.

BlackRock Price and EPS Surprise

 

BlackRock Price and EPS Surprise

BlackRock price-eps-surprise | BlackRock Quote

Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted BlackRock’s performance.

Key Factors to Note & Q3 Estimates for BLK

AUM: BlackRock is a dominant player in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, given its continued investments in the U.S. iShare core ETFs (offering more than 1,400 ETFs globally). Supported by its diversified offerings and a strong revenue mix, the company has been witnessing consistent AUM growth over the past several quarters. Growth is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by steady inflows.

The approval and listing of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs, along with the acquisitions of ElmTree and HPS Investment Partners, are likely to have further contributed to AUM growth.

Management expects the HPS acquisition to increase BlackRock’s private markets fee-paying AUM by 40%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM for the third quarter is pegged at $13.08 trillion, indicating a year-over-year jump of 13.9%. Our estimate for AUM is $12.59 trillion.

Revenue Components: BlackRock is expected to have recorded growth in its investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues on improving inflows, latest offerings and market appreciation. The consensus estimate for the metric is $4.92 billion, implying a 22.1% year-over-year rise. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $4.58 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $359 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 7.5%. Our estimate for the same is $260.8 million.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $347 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 7.4%. We project the metric to be $340.5 million. The consensus estimate for technology services revenues is pegged at $497 million, implying a 23.3% year-over-year rise. We project the metric to increase to $467.3 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory and other revenues is pegged at $58 million, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 9.4%. We project the metric to be $59.8 million.

Management expects the HPS deal to add $450 million in revenues, including $225 million in management fees, in the to-be-reported quarter.

Expenses: BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Overall costs are expected to have increased in the third quarter, given that the company has been continuing its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce and improve operating efficiency. Also, its inorganic expansion efforts are likely to have increased expenses.

Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $3.66 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 14.8%.

BLK’s Key Q3 Developments

On July 1, BlackRock completed the acquisition of HPS Investment Partners, signaling its deeper foray into the private credit market. The deal is expected to help BLK strengthen its private credit capabilities, enhance client offerings and grow fee-based revenues.

On Sept. 2, BlackRock completed the acquisition of ElmTree Funds, a St. Louis-based real estate investment firm specializing in net-lease assets. The deal was part of BLK’s long-term goal to raise $400 billion for private markets by 2030.

What Our Model Unveils for BlackRock

According to our quantitative model, the chances of BlackRock beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -0.51%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings of $11.53 per share has been revised 1.8% lower over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a marginal increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $6.27 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 20.7%.

Finance Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a couple of finance stocks, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on Oct. 16. The company has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.47% at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB’s quarterly earnings has been revised marginally lower to $4.38 per share.

The Earnings ESP for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) is +1.07% and it carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to report quarterly results on Oct. 16.

Quarterly earnings estimates for BK have been unchanged at $1.75 per share over the past week.


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) - free report >>

BlackRock (BLK) - free report >>

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) - free report >>

Published in