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Will Microsoft's $30B AI Build-Out Power Its Next Growth Phase?

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Key Takeaways

  • Microsoft plans nearly $30B in Q1 FY26 capex to boost AI and cloud infrastructure.
  • Intelligent Cloud revenues are projected to grow 25%-26%, with Azure up about 37% in constant currency.
  • New AI tools like GPT-5 integration and the Microsoft Agent Framework expand Microsoft's AI reach.

Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) is betting big on artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure to drive its next phase of growth. The company plans to ramp up capital expenditures to nearly $30 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting its AI-first strategy to expand data center capacity, GPU availability and global infrastructure. These investments aim to strengthen Microsoft’s leadership in the rapidly expanding AI economy and position Azure as the preferred platform for next-generation workloads.

Looking ahead, Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud remains a key growth driver as enterprises accelerate their AI adoption. With Azure at its center, the company expects Intelligent Cloud revenue growth of 25% to 26% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and Azure growth of around 37% in constant currency. Microsoft has announced multi-billion-dollar investments in AI and cloud infrastructure across key international markets, including India and the U.K.

Recent advancements further validate this strategy. Microsoft has integrated GPT-5 across Microsoft 365, GitHub, Visual Studio and Azure AI Foundry. It launched the Microsoft Agent Framework (MAF) for multi-agent AI systems and enhanced GPT-4o models to boost GPU efficiency. The addition of OpenAI’s multimodal models in Azure AI Foundry and new partnerships like the Harvard Medical School Copilot license further expand its AI footprint.

According to the Zacks model, Microsoft’s total revenues are expected to grow 13% in fiscal 2026 and 14.3% in fiscal 2027 year over year, showing steady momentum. This aligns with the booming AI infrastructure market, projected by Fortune Business Insights to witness a compound annual growth rate of 29.1% from 2025 to 2032 and reach $356.14 billion. With record AI investments and strong enterprise adoption, Microsoft’s $30B AI build-out is set to drive its next major growth phase.

Amazon & Google Challenge Microsoft in AI Spending

Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) is intensifying its AI investment race against Microsoft through massive AWS expansion. Amazon plans nearly $100 billion in AI-related capital spending in 2025, which will outpace rivals, to bolster AWS infrastructure and custom AI chips. Amazon’s Bedrock platform enables clients to use multiple models, including Anthropic, Meta and Stability AI. While Microsoft relies on OpenAI, Amazon focuses on vertical integration and scalability. With AWS still holding roughly 30% of cloud market share, Amazon leverages its dominance to drive faster, broader AI innovation and enterprise adoption.

Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) is escalating its AI investment race with Microsoft, boosting 2025 spending to $85 billion for data centers and cloud infrastructure. Alphabet leverages its DeepMind and Google Research arms to advance models like Gemini, powering AI features across Search, YouTube and Android. Alphabet’s strategy integrates consumer and enterprise AI through Google Cloud, supported by global infrastructure expansion and acquisitions such as Wiz. With strong data advantages and product integration, Alphabet remains a dominant force in the AI innovation race.

MSFT’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

MSFT shares have appreciated 24.5% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 20.9% and 22.8%, respectively.

MSFT’s YTD Price Performance

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, Microsoft trades at a premium with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 11.68X compared with the industry’s 8.63X. MSFT has a Value Score of D.

MSFT’s Valuation

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSFT’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $15.41 per share, up 0.4% over the past 30 days. The estimate indicates 12.98% year-over-year growth.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Microsoft currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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