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Can Novo Nordisk's Aggressive Deal-Making Offset Semaglutide Reliance?
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Key Takeaways
Novo Nordisk will acquire Akero Therapeutics for $4.7B plus a contingent $6 per share payment.
The deal gives NVO access to Akero's EFX, a late-stage FGF21 analog for MASH with fibrosis regression data.
The acquisition advances NVO's goal to broaden its cardiometabolic portfolio beyond semaglutide therapies.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) continues to derive the bulk of its revenue from its blockbuster semaglutide (GLP-1 RA) therapies, Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic for type II diabetes (T2D). Together, the drugs generated DKK 101.41 billion in the first half of 2025, representing about 65% of total sales. However, this heavy dependence has made the company vulnerable to competitive pressures. In July 2025, Novo Nordisk trimmed its full-year sales and profit outlook amid slower-than-expected demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, driven by intensifying competition from arch-rival Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) tirzepatide-based drugs, Mounjaro (T2D) and Zepbound (obesity), as well as growing use of compounded semaglutide in the United States.
To offset these headwinds, Novo Nordisk is pursuing acquisitions and licensing deals to expand its obesity and cardiometabolic pipeline with differentiated assets.
Novo Nordisk recently announced plans to acquire Akero Therapeutics (AKRO - Free Report) for $4.7 billion, plus a potential $6 per share contingent payment tied to U.S. regulatory approval of Akero Therapeutics’ lead pipeline candidate, efruxifermin (EFX). The deal grants Novo Nordisk access to AKRO’s EFX, which is a late-stage FGF21 analog. It is the only investigational therapy to show significant fibrosis regression in a phase II study in patients with compensated cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). EFX is currently being evaluated in a phase III program across pre-cirrhotic and cirrhotic MASH populations, positioning it as a potential first- and best-in-class therapy for this obesity-linked liver disease.
Expected to close around the turn of the year, the acquisition highlights Novo Nordisk’s strategy to expand into adjacent metabolic conditions that closely align with its diabetes and obesity franchises, given that more than 80% of MASH patients are overweight or obese. Following the news, Akero Therapeutics' stock gained 16.3% on Thursday.
In May, Novo Nordisk signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for the development and commercialization of oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, diabetes, and other cardiometabolic diseases. In March, NVO signed an exclusive global licensing deal worth up to $2 billion with The United Laboratories for UBT251, a first-in-class GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist in early-stage development for obesity and T2D, bolstering its next-generation pipeline. Earlier this year, Novo Nordisk also expanded its AI-driven partnership with Valo Health to discover and develop up to 20 new drug programs in obesity, T2D and cardiovascular disease, a deal valued at up to $4.6 billion in milestone payments, further strengthening its innovative pipeline in cardiometabolic therapies.
Overall, Novo Nordisk’s proactive deal-making and R&D expansion in 2025 signal a clear strategic shift toward pipeline diversification and long-term resilience, as the company seeks to mitigate its reliance on semaglutide and secure sustained growth in an increasingly competitive diabetes and obesity landscape.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space. Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In the first half of 2025, the drugs generated combined sales of $14.7 billion, accounting for 52% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues. LLY’s Mounjaro and Zepbound follow a dual mechanism of action as a GIP and GLP-1 RA.
Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) , are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In August 2025, VKTX announced mixed top-line results from a mid-stage study evaluating the safety and efficacy of the oral formulation of VK2735, which caused the stock to drop significantly. Phase III obesity studies with the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735 have also been initiated.
NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates
Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 31.7% against the industry’s 7.8% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 14.62 forward earnings, which is lower than 15.88 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.
NVO Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.89 to $3.68 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share estimates have declined from $4.24 to $4.04.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Image: Shutterstock
Can Novo Nordisk's Aggressive Deal-Making Offset Semaglutide Reliance?
Key Takeaways
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) continues to derive the bulk of its revenue from its blockbuster semaglutide (GLP-1 RA) therapies, Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic for type II diabetes (T2D). Together, the drugs generated DKK 101.41 billion in the first half of 2025, representing about 65% of total sales. However, this heavy dependence has made the company vulnerable to competitive pressures. In July 2025, Novo Nordisk trimmed its full-year sales and profit outlook amid slower-than-expected demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, driven by intensifying competition from arch-rival Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) tirzepatide-based drugs, Mounjaro (T2D) and Zepbound (obesity), as well as growing use of compounded semaglutide in the United States.
To offset these headwinds, Novo Nordisk is pursuing acquisitions and licensing deals to expand its obesity and cardiometabolic pipeline with differentiated assets.
Novo Nordisk recently announced plans to acquire Akero Therapeutics (AKRO - Free Report) for $4.7 billion, plus a potential $6 per share contingent payment tied to U.S. regulatory approval of Akero Therapeutics’ lead pipeline candidate, efruxifermin (EFX). The deal grants Novo Nordisk access to AKRO’s EFX, which is a late-stage FGF21 analog. It is the only investigational therapy to show significant fibrosis regression in a phase II study in patients with compensated cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). EFX is currently being evaluated in a phase III program across pre-cirrhotic and cirrhotic MASH populations, positioning it as a potential first- and best-in-class therapy for this obesity-linked liver disease.
Expected to close around the turn of the year, the acquisition highlights Novo Nordisk’s strategy to expand into adjacent metabolic conditions that closely align with its diabetes and obesity franchises, given that more than 80% of MASH patients are overweight or obese. Following the news, Akero Therapeutics' stock gained 16.3% on Thursday.
In May, Novo Nordisk signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for the development and commercialization of oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, diabetes, and other cardiometabolic diseases. In March, NVO signed an exclusive global licensing deal worth up to $2 billion with The United Laboratories for UBT251, a first-in-class GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist in early-stage development for obesity and T2D, bolstering its next-generation pipeline. Earlier this year, Novo Nordisk also expanded its AI-driven partnership with Valo Health to discover and develop up to 20 new drug programs in obesity, T2D and cardiovascular disease, a deal valued at up to $4.6 billion in milestone payments, further strengthening its innovative pipeline in cardiometabolic therapies.
Overall, Novo Nordisk’s proactive deal-making and R&D expansion in 2025 signal a clear strategic shift toward pipeline diversification and long-term resilience, as the company seeks to mitigate its reliance on semaglutide and secure sustained growth in an increasingly competitive diabetes and obesity landscape.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space. Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In the first half of 2025, the drugs generated combined sales of $14.7 billion, accounting for 52% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues. LLY’s Mounjaro and Zepbound follow a dual mechanism of action as a GIP and GLP-1 RA.
Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) , are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In August 2025, VKTX announced mixed top-line results from a mid-stage study evaluating the safety and efficacy of the oral formulation of VK2735, which caused the stock to drop significantly. Phase III obesity studies with the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735 have also been initiated.
NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates
Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 31.7% against the industry’s 7.8% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 14.62 forward earnings, which is lower than 15.88 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.
NVO Stock Valuation
Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.89 to $3.68 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share estimates have declined from $4.24 to $4.04.
NVO Estimate Movement
Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.