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Domino's Q3 Earnings on Deck: Strong Sales, Softer Profits?

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Key Takeaways

  • DPZ is set to report Q3 2025 results on Oct. 14, with earnings estimates at $3.99 per share.
  • Parmesan Stuffed Crust, delivery partnerships and loyalty revamps have been driving sales momentum.
  • Higher food and utility costs, plus value pricing, may weigh on Domino's Q3 profit margins.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 14, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, DPZ’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 3.6%.

DPZ’s Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.99 per share, which implies a 4.8% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. In the past 30 days, estimates for earnings have remained stable. 

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.14 billion, which indicates growth of 5.4% from the year-ago actual.

Factors to Note Ahead of DPZ’s Q3 Results

For Domino’s third-quarter 2025 top line, several tailwinds are likely to have played a role. The launch of the Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza has been a standout, driving incremental traffic and boosting average ticket size given its higher price point. At the same time, the expansion of aggregator partnerships, particularly with DoorDash following Uber Eats, is expected to have widened Domino’s customer reach and fueled delivery volumes. 

The revamped Domino’s Rewards program has also gained traction, especially in the carryout segment, helping to attract new users and increase visit frequency. Together, these initiatives not only sustained strong same-store sales momentum but are likely to have also positioned the brand to capture additional market share in a category that has otherwise remained flat.

On the other hand, strength in markets such as India, Canada and Mexico is likely to have offset macroeconomic uncertainties. Carryout strength in the United States, with record-high average order volumes, is likely to have provided another layer of growth, reinforcing the company’s strategy of balancing value-driven promotions with long-term structural demand. These factors combined are expected to have ensured that Domino’s retail sales growth remained ahead of the broader QSR pizza industry.

For the third quarter, our model predicts comps at the U.S. company-owned and franchise stores to grow 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, year over year. Also, we expect international comps to increase 1% year over year.

Our model expects total U.S. store revenues to grow 6.9% from the year-ago level to $378.6 million. Per our model, supply-chain revenues are likely to rise 4.5% from the prior-year actual to $680.8 million.

Despite top-line growth, profitability might have been pressured by food cost inflation and higher utility expenses, both of which tend to be more pronounced in the summer months. Additionally, Domino’s strategy of pricing below broader food inflation, to protect value perception and drive volume, likely weighed on margin rates.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for DPZ

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Domino's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Domino's has an Earnings ESP of -2.10% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Domino's Pizza Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Domino's Pizza Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Domino's Pizza Inc price-eps-surprise | Domino's Pizza Inc Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks you may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.

Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +13.55% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Papa John's earnings are expected to register a 4.7% year-over-year decrease. Papa John's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 15.8%. 

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. In the to-be-reported quarter, Texas Roadhouse earnings are expected to register a 3.2% year-over-year increase. 

Texas Roadhouse earnings beat estimates in the trailing one out of four quarters, missed thrice, with an average miss of 2.1%.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Deckers Outdoor earnings are expected to decrease 1.3%. Deckers Outdoor earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 39.5%.

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