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Robust Trading, IB Fee Growth to Aid Morgan Stanley's Q3 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
Morgan Stanley will release 3Q25 earnings on Oct. 15, before market open.
Trading and investment banking strengths are expected to lift quarterly revenues.
Analysts project a 5.6% y/y rise in revenues and a 10.1% jump in EPS.
Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) is set to announce third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 15 before the opening bell. As always, the company’s performance and the subsequent management conference call are expected to grab attention from analysts and investors.
Morgan Stanley’s second-quarter performance was impressive, driven by robust trading activities. This time, the company’s results will likely be strong on the back of solid trading and investment banking (IB) performances. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MS’ third-quarter revenues of $16.25 billion suggests 5.6% year-over-year growth.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised 2% higher to $2.07. The figure indicates a 10.1% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MS has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 20.3%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Impact Morgan Stanley’s Q3 Results
IB Income: Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) rebounded impressively in the third quarter of 2025 from the lows witnessed in April and May following President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. As corporates adapted to the rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, bigger M&A deals kicked in.
Thus, robust deal-making activities are expected to have driven Morgan Stanley’s advisory fees in the quarter. The company’s position as one of the leading players in the space is likely to have aided advisory fees to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter advisory fees is pegged at $589 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 7.9%. Our estimate for the metric is $586 million.
The IPO market in the third quarter performed impressively, with a significant increase in the number of IPOs and the amount of capital raised. Several factors, including strategic tariff pauses and positive economic data, drove the rise. The global bond issuance volume was decent. Supported by a strong IPO performance, Morgan Stanley’s equity underwriting fees are expected to have improved in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, while fixed income underwriting fee growth is not expected to have been much.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity underwriting fees of $440 million suggests a year-over-year rise of 21.5%. The consensus estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is pegged at $510 million, indicating a fall of 8.1% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The consensus estimate for total underwriting fees of $950 million implies a rise of 3.6%.
Our estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is $541.4 million, whereas the same for equity underwriting fees is $404.9 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB income of $1.51 billion indicates a year-over-year rise of 3.4%. Our estimate for IB income is pegged at $1.53 billion.
Trading Revenues: The performance of Morgan Stanley’s trading business (constituting a significant portion of its top line) is expected to have been strong in the third quarter of 2025, supported by increased client activity and market volatility.
The uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and changes in the Fed’s policy stance drove client activity. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Therefore, Morgan Stanley is likely to have recorded solid growth in trading revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s equity trading revenues is pegged at $3.22 billion, suggesting a rise of 5.7% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The consensus estimate for fixed-income trading revenues of $2.05 billion indicates a rally of 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Our estimates for third-quarter equity trading revenues and fixed-income trading revenues are $3.54 billion and $2.10 billion, respectively.
Net Interest Income (NII): In September, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. This is less likely to have hampered Morgan Stanley’s NII as it occurred toward the end of the third quarter.
As rates were relatively stable for most of the quarter, funding/deposit costs are likely to have stabilized. Also, the overall lending scenario was impressive. Thus, amid gradually stabilizing funding costs, Morgan Stanley’s NII is expected to have improved in the quarter, supported by loan growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest revenues is pegged at $2.34 billion, suggesting a rise of 6.4% on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for the metric is $2.30 billion.
For the wealth management segment, the company expects NII to be relatively stable sequentially.
Expenses: Cost reduction, which has long been Morgan Stanley's primary strategy for remaining profitable, is unlikely to have provided much support in the September-ended quarter. As the company has been investing in franchises, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated.
We expect total non-interest expenses of $11.4 billion, implying a 2.7% year-over-year increase.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for MS
Per our proven model, the chances of Morgan Stanley beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
The Earnings ESP for Morgan Stanley is +1.10%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
In the third quarter, the price performance of the MS stock was impressive. While shares of Morgan Stanley performed almost in line with its close peer Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) , the stock performed better than the Zacks Investment Bank industry and another peer, JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) .
3Q25 Price Performance of MS
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are slated to announce quarterly numbers on Oct. 14. Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward to $4.83. The consensus estimate for Goldman Sachs has also been revised upward to $10.93.
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Robust Trading, IB Fee Growth to Aid Morgan Stanley's Q3 Earnings
Key Takeaways
Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) is set to announce third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 15 before the opening bell. As always, the company’s performance and the subsequent management conference call are expected to grab attention from analysts and investors.
Morgan Stanley’s second-quarter performance was impressive, driven by robust trading activities. This time, the company’s results will likely be strong on the back of solid trading and investment banking (IB) performances. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MS’ third-quarter revenues of $16.25 billion suggests 5.6% year-over-year growth.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised 2% higher to $2.07. The figure indicates a 10.1% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MS has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 20.3%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Impact Morgan Stanley’s Q3 Results
IB Income: Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) rebounded impressively in the third quarter of 2025 from the lows witnessed in April and May following President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. As corporates adapted to the rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, bigger M&A deals kicked in.
Thus, robust deal-making activities are expected to have driven Morgan Stanley’s advisory fees in the quarter. The company’s position as one of the leading players in the space is likely to have aided advisory fees to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter advisory fees is pegged at $589 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 7.9%. Our estimate for the metric is $586 million.
The IPO market in the third quarter performed impressively, with a significant increase in the number of IPOs and the amount of capital raised. Several factors, including strategic tariff pauses and positive economic data, drove the rise. The global bond issuance volume was decent. Supported by a strong IPO performance, Morgan Stanley’s equity underwriting fees are expected to have improved in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, while fixed income underwriting fee growth is not expected to have been much.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity underwriting fees of $440 million suggests a year-over-year rise of 21.5%. The consensus estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is pegged at $510 million, indicating a fall of 8.1% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The consensus estimate for total underwriting fees of $950 million implies a rise of 3.6%.
Our estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is $541.4 million, whereas the same for equity underwriting fees is $404.9 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB income of $1.51 billion indicates a year-over-year rise of 3.4%. Our estimate for IB income is pegged at $1.53 billion.
Trading Revenues: The performance of Morgan Stanley’s trading business (constituting a significant portion of its top line) is expected to have been strong in the third quarter of 2025, supported by increased client activity and market volatility.
The uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and changes in the Fed’s policy stance drove client activity. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Therefore, Morgan Stanley is likely to have recorded solid growth in trading revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s equity trading revenues is pegged at $3.22 billion, suggesting a rise of 5.7% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The consensus estimate for fixed-income trading revenues of $2.05 billion indicates a rally of 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Our estimates for third-quarter equity trading revenues and fixed-income trading revenues are $3.54 billion and $2.10 billion, respectively.
Net Interest Income (NII): In September, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. This is less likely to have hampered Morgan Stanley’s NII as it occurred toward the end of the third quarter.
As rates were relatively stable for most of the quarter, funding/deposit costs are likely to have stabilized. Also, the overall lending scenario was impressive. Thus, amid gradually stabilizing funding costs, Morgan Stanley’s NII is expected to have improved in the quarter, supported by loan growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest revenues is pegged at $2.34 billion, suggesting a rise of 6.4% on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for the metric is $2.30 billion.
For the wealth management segment, the company expects NII to be relatively stable sequentially.
Expenses: Cost reduction, which has long been Morgan Stanley's primary strategy for remaining profitable, is unlikely to have provided much support in the September-ended quarter. As the company has been investing in franchises, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated.
We expect total non-interest expenses of $11.4 billion, implying a 2.7% year-over-year increase.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for MS
Per our proven model, the chances of Morgan Stanley beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
The Earnings ESP for Morgan Stanley is +1.10%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MS currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Morgan Stanley’s Price Performance
In the third quarter, the price performance of the MS stock was impressive. While shares of Morgan Stanley performed almost in line with its close peer Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) , the stock performed better than the Zacks Investment Bank industry and another peer, JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) .
3Q25 Price Performance of MS
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are slated to announce quarterly numbers on Oct. 14. Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward to $4.83. The consensus estimate for Goldman Sachs has also been revised upward to $10.93.