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Fossil Climbs 62% Year to Date: Should You Buy the Stock?

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Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL - Free Report) shares have surged 62.3% year to date against the industry’s 12.5% decline. The company has outperformed other industry players, including Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN - Free Report) and Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT - Free Report) , which posted increases of 25.8% and 17%, respectively, in the same time frame. FOSL benefits from improved liquidity through debt refinancing, operational efficiencies, cost controls, product innovation and brand revitalization.

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A Key Look Into FOSL’s Business Operations

Fossil is a global design and distribution company specializing in fashion accessories, including watches, jewelry, handbags and more. Owned brands include FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC and ZODIAC, alongside licensed brands like MICHAEL KORS, ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL and others. In 2023, Fossil launched the Transform and Grow plan to cut costs and improve margins, achieving $280 million in annualized operating income benefits by 2024. In 2025, Fossil introduced a Turnaround Plan focused on core product refocus, cost restructuring and balance sheet strengthening. Fossil operates across the Americas, Europe and Asia, leveraging a multi-channel model, including e-commerce, retail and wholesale. Watches remain its core category. Fossil competes globally through brand strength, design innovation and strategic licensing partnerships.

Fossil’s Key Tailwinds

Fossil is benefiting from a strategic turnaround built on three foundational pillars: refocusing on the core business, tightening cost structures, and strengthening the balance sheet. The company has made notable progress, including a comprehensive debt refinancing plan, which enhances liquidity and supports long-term growth. With a new $150 million revolving credit facility and a transaction support agreement, Fossil now enjoys increased financial flexibility, reduced refinancing risks and a clear runway to execute transformation initiatives.

The brand’s marketing strategy has shifted toward high-impact, upper-funnel campaigns featuring global icons like Nick Jonas, resulting in stronger consumer engagement and better brand resonance. These investments have driven higher product visibility and sales across key channels. Influencer collaborations, pop-up events, and in-store activations are helping build emotional connections with consumers while increasing average unit retail prices and engagement levels, especially in traditional watches, a segment showing strong rebound trends in India and the Americas.

Operational efficiencies are emerging as a major tailwind. Fossil’s aggressive initiatives in cost control, including supply chain optimization and automation, are delivering margin improvements. Strategic partnerships with suppliers, platform upgrades and rationalized promotional activity have significantly improved gross margins, while lower SG&A expenses position the company for profitability. Additionally, a renewed focus on channel profitability — especially through e-commerce and European distribution — has yielded better returns and more scalable revenue streams.

Product innovation and merchandising have also played a critical role in Fossil’s momentum. The relaunch of beloved lines such as the traditional watch collection, along with new product pipelines like the Neutra, Raquel, and Fossil Heritage series, is resonating well with consumers. Management sees potential in reinvigorating core offerings while leveraging global license partners. This mix of heritage branding and modern product development is driving top-line growth and share gains across key regions and retail formats, especially in India and the United States.

Challenges Persist for FOSL’s Business

Fossil continues to face sales-based weakness in key markets like Europe and China, exposing the brand to macro volatility and creating an uneven revenue mix. Additionally, heightened tariff risks and trade policy shifts threaten supply chain stability and margin resilience. Competitive pressures from larger and more agile players in the e-commerce space further challenge Fossil’s position, potentially forcing margin-diluting strategies. Sustained headwinds may undermine confidence in its turnaround efforts.

Fossil’s Valuation

The company is cheaply priced compared with the industry average. Currently, FOSL is trading at 0.19X trailing 12-month EV/sales value, below the industry’s average of 1.85X. The metric also remains lower than the company’s peers, including Urban Outfitters (0.95X) and Boot Barn (2.68X), suggesting an opportunity for potential investors.

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Conclusion

The company’s focus on strengthening its balance sheet, streamlining operations, and revitalizing its core watch business enhances financial flexibility and supports margin expansion. With improving liquidity, strong brand momentum, and disciplined cost management, Fossil is positioned to deliver operational resilience and improved shareholder value, despite near-term headwinds in select markets. 

Strong fundamentals coupled with FOSL's undervaluation present a lucrative opportunity for investors to add the stock to their portfolio. 


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