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Pre-markets Continue to Rise - Q3 Earnings & Philly Fed
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Key Takeaways
No Weekly Jobless Claims, PPI or Retail Sales Today
Pre-markets Strong on AI Investment, Q3 Earnings Results
Philly Fed Lower 5 of Past 7 Months
Thursday, October 16, 2025
Pre-market futures are forging higher again this morning, as quality Q3 earnings results are complimenting continued AI-driven bullishness. The Dow is up +83 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +25 and the Nasdaq +150 points. The small-cap Russell 2000, fresh off another all-time closing high, is up another +9 points at this hour.
We’re devoid some key economic data with this protracted government shutdown today: Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, as well as Weekly Jobless Claims (which have been missing in action for now four weeks). Retail Sales were expected to have come down from warmer-than-preferred +0.6% on headline and +0.9% ex-autos, the prior month.
Initial Jobless Claims had come rapidly down during the most recently reported weeks, from 264K to 218K two weeks later. It would be nice to see the current trajectory. PPI year over year in August was a less-acute +2.6% on wholesale prices, +2.8% ex-food, energy and food, energy and trade. Would these numbers be similarly accommodating last month, or might we have more reason to be cautious on inflation?
Philly Fed Negative Now 5 of 7 Months
In a reversal of what we saw yesterday in the Empire State Index, which was stronger than expected for October, this morning’s Philly Fed survey from the Federal Reserve slid back into negative territory. Analysts had expected a second-straight positive print, around +10 from +23.2 the previous month, but instead it came in -12.8 — the lowest read since April.
This marks the fifth month in the past seven with a lower headline on manufacturing in the state of New York. In the now 10 months reported in 2025, five have been positive, five negative. Manufacturers in the Empire State do have a better outlook than in previous reports, but this may be a function of believing they must be near the bottom of the current manufacturing cycle rather than experiencing material strength.
Q3 Earnings Roundup: TSM, TRV, USB
There are many companies reporting quarterly earnings ahead of today’s opening bell, but we only have time to mention a few of them here:
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM - Free Report) , to no one’s surprise, put up a strong quarter. Earnings of $2.92 per share came in +12.74% better than the $2.59 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues of $33.10 billion outpaced the $31.50 billion analysts were looking for, and nearly $1 billion higher than the year-ago quarter. Its High-Performance Computing space, which includes AI GPUs, led the way with +57% of revenues — also unsurprising.
Dow component The Travelers (TRV - Free Report) surged past expectations in its Q3 earnings this morning, with earnings of $8.14 per share trouncing the $6.01 anticipated. Revenues of $12.44 billion in the quarter also surpassed estimates, but by only +0.74%. However, its Book Value per Share missed, coming in -6.6% for the quarter, which is helping move the insurance major’s stock lower by -4% at this hour. For more on TRV’s earnings, click here.
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) shares are up this morning on healthy beats for both top and bottom lines in Q3: earnings of $1.22 per share outperformed the Zacks consensus $1.11 by +9.9%. Revenues of $7.33 billion surpassed expectations by +2.4% in the quarter. USB stock is still down year to date, however, by roughly -1.5%. For more on USB’s earnings, click here.
Image: Bigstock
Pre-markets Continue to Rise - Q3 Earnings & Philly Fed
Key Takeaways
Thursday, October 16, 2025
Pre-market futures are forging higher again this morning, as quality Q3 earnings results are complimenting continued AI-driven bullishness. The Dow is up +83 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +25 and the Nasdaq +150 points. The small-cap Russell 2000, fresh off another all-time closing high, is up another +9 points at this hour.
We’re devoid some key economic data with this protracted government shutdown today: Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, as well as Weekly Jobless Claims (which have been missing in action for now four weeks). Retail Sales were expected to have come down from warmer-than-preferred +0.6% on headline and +0.9% ex-autos, the prior month.
Initial Jobless Claims had come rapidly down during the most recently reported weeks, from 264K to 218K two weeks later. It would be nice to see the current trajectory. PPI year over year in August was a less-acute +2.6% on wholesale prices, +2.8% ex-food, energy and food, energy and trade. Would these numbers be similarly accommodating last month, or might we have more reason to be cautious on inflation?
Philly Fed Negative Now 5 of 7 Months
In a reversal of what we saw yesterday in the Empire State Index, which was stronger than expected for October, this morning’s Philly Fed survey from the Federal Reserve slid back into negative territory. Analysts had expected a second-straight positive print, around +10 from +23.2 the previous month, but instead it came in -12.8 — the lowest read since April.
This marks the fifth month in the past seven with a lower headline on manufacturing in the state of New York. In the now 10 months reported in 2025, five have been positive, five negative. Manufacturers in the Empire State do have a better outlook than in previous reports, but this may be a function of believing they must be near the bottom of the current manufacturing cycle rather than experiencing material strength.
Q3 Earnings Roundup: TSM, TRV, USB
There are many companies reporting quarterly earnings ahead of today’s opening bell, but we only have time to mention a few of them here:
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM - Free Report) , to no one’s surprise, put up a strong quarter. Earnings of $2.92 per share came in +12.74% better than the $2.59 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues of $33.10 billion outpaced the $31.50 billion analysts were looking for, and nearly $1 billion higher than the year-ago quarter. Its High-Performance Computing space, which includes AI GPUs, led the way with +57% of revenues — also unsurprising.
Dow component The Travelers (TRV - Free Report) surged past expectations in its Q3 earnings this morning, with earnings of $8.14 per share trouncing the $6.01 anticipated. Revenues of $12.44 billion in the quarter also surpassed estimates, but by only +0.74%. However, its Book Value per Share missed, coming in -6.6% for the quarter, which is helping move the insurance major’s stock lower by -4% at this hour. For more on TRV’s earnings, click here.
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) shares are up this morning on healthy beats for both top and bottom lines in Q3: earnings of $1.22 per share outperformed the Zacks consensus $1.11 by +9.9%. Revenues of $7.33 billion surpassed expectations by +2.4% in the quarter. USB stock is still down year to date, however, by roughly -1.5%. For more on USB’s earnings, click here.
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