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Can CCJ Meet Its FY25 Uranium Sales Target Amid Production Constraints?
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Key Takeaways
Cameco targets uranium revenues of CAD 2.8-3.0B for 2025, up 8% year over year.
Production guidance was cut to 19.6-20.3M lbs due to delays at McArthur River.
Cigar Lake's strong output is expected to help offset McArthur River shortfalls.
Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) has projected an uranium revenue target of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion for 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% at the midpoint. The range factors in uranium sales of 31-34 million pounds at an average realized price of $87 per pound. Cameco delivered 33.6 million pounds at $58.34 per pound (CAD 79.70 per pound) in 2024.
Cameco has so far delivered 15.6 million pounds of uranium and generated uranium revenues of CAD 1.324 billion at an average realized price of CAD 84.62 per pound ($59.66 per pound).
Cameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine and a 54.547% stake in the Cigar Lake mine. CCJ’s attributable uranium production from these operations totaled 10.6 million pounds in the first half of 2025, down 18% year over year. Output at McArthur River mine was down 35%, offset by an 8% rise at Cigar Lake.
During its second-quarter results, Cameco had stated that it expects its share of uranium production from Cigar Lake to be 9.8 million pounds for 2025, and from the McArthur River mine to be 12.6 million pounds, for a total of 22.4 million pounds. The company also plans to make market purchases of up to 3 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the second quarter was 7.6 million pounds.
However, subsequent to the results, Cameco revised its 2025 production outlook from the McArthur River mine, citing development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas, as well as slower-than-anticipated ground freezing. The company now expects 9.8–10.5 million pounds of uranium from McArthur River while maintaining 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake. This suggests its share of combined production at 19.6-20.3 million pounds for 2025. The company, however, did not make any changes to its previous delivery and revenue targets.
To meet the revised production guidance, CCJ’s share of production has to come within 9-9.7 million pounds in the back half of 2025, which seems achievable. Given Cigar Lake’s upbeat performance, it will likely help offset some of the production shortfall at McArthur River. Also, backed by its inventory and market purchases, Cameco is likely to meet its delivery target and revenues for the year.
Among peers, Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) sold 50,000 pounds of uranium on the spot market for an average price of $77 per pound in the first half of 2025. The company expects higher uranium sales over the remaining quarters of 2025, targeting full-year sales at 350,000 pounds.
As of June 30, 2025, Energy Fuels held a total of 1,875,000 pounds of uranium in inventory, including 725,000 pounds of finished uranium, 1,100,000 pounds of uranium in ore and raw materials, and 50,000 pounds of work-in-progress. With uranium prices regaining ground recently, Energy Fuels may make higher sales or revisit the guidance.
Uranium Energy (UEC - Free Report) sold 810,000 pounds of uranium at an average price of around $82.50 per pound in fiscal 2025 (ended July 31, 2025). As of fiscal 2025-end, Uranium Energy held 1.36 million pounds of uranium in inventory, valued at $96.6 million (at the current market prices). This excludes approximately 130,000 pounds of initial Wyoming production. Uranium Energy expects its warehouse inventory to expand another 300,000 pounds through December 2025, thanks to purchase contracts priced at $37.05 per pound, in addition to new production from operations.
CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 68.8% compared with the industry’s 19% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 16.10 compared with the industry’s 1.45. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 130.6%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 30.97%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 has moved down over the past 60 days, while the estimate for 2026 has remained unchanged, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Image: Bigstock
Can CCJ Meet Its FY25 Uranium Sales Target Amid Production Constraints?
Key Takeaways
Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) has projected an uranium revenue target of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion for 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% at the midpoint. The range factors in uranium sales of 31-34 million pounds at an average realized price of $87 per pound. Cameco delivered 33.6 million pounds at $58.34 per pound (CAD 79.70 per pound) in 2024.
Cameco has so far delivered 15.6 million pounds of uranium and generated uranium revenues of CAD 1.324 billion at an average realized price of CAD 84.62 per pound ($59.66 per pound).
Cameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine and a 54.547% stake in the Cigar Lake mine. CCJ’s attributable uranium production from these operations totaled 10.6 million pounds in the first half of 2025, down 18% year over year. Output at McArthur River mine was down 35%, offset by an 8% rise at Cigar Lake.
During its second-quarter results, Cameco had stated that it expects its share of uranium production from Cigar Lake to be 9.8 million pounds for 2025, and from the McArthur River mine to be 12.6 million pounds, for a total of 22.4 million pounds. The company also plans to make market purchases of up to 3 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the second quarter was 7.6 million pounds.
However, subsequent to the results, Cameco revised its 2025 production outlook from the McArthur River mine, citing development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas, as well as slower-than-anticipated ground freezing. The company now expects 9.8–10.5 million pounds of uranium from McArthur River while maintaining 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake. This suggests its share of combined production at 19.6-20.3 million pounds for 2025. The company, however, did not make any changes to its previous delivery and revenue targets.
To meet the revised production guidance, CCJ’s share of production has to come within 9-9.7 million pounds in the back half of 2025, which seems achievable. Given Cigar Lake’s upbeat performance, it will likely help offset some of the production shortfall at McArthur River. Also, backed by its inventory and market purchases, Cameco is likely to meet its delivery target and revenues for the year.
Among peers, Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) sold 50,000 pounds of uranium on the spot market for an average price of $77 per pound in the first half of 2025. The company expects higher uranium sales over the remaining quarters of 2025, targeting full-year sales at 350,000 pounds.
As of June 30, 2025, Energy Fuels held a total of 1,875,000 pounds of uranium in inventory, including 725,000 pounds of finished uranium, 1,100,000 pounds of uranium in ore and raw materials, and 50,000 pounds of work-in-progress. With uranium prices regaining ground recently, Energy Fuels may make higher sales or revisit the guidance.
Uranium Energy (UEC - Free Report) sold 810,000 pounds of uranium at an average price of around $82.50 per pound in fiscal 2025 (ended July 31, 2025).
As of fiscal 2025-end, Uranium Energy held 1.36 million pounds of uranium in inventory, valued at $96.6 million (at the current market prices). This excludes approximately 130,000 pounds of initial Wyoming production. Uranium Energy expects its warehouse inventory to expand another 300,000 pounds through December 2025, thanks to purchase contracts priced at $37.05 per pound, in addition to new production from operations.
CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 68.8% compared with the industry’s 19% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 16.10 compared with the industry’s 1.45. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 130.6%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 30.97%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 has moved down over the past 60 days, while the estimate for 2026 has remained unchanged, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.