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MercadoLibre vs. Shopify: Which Digital Commerce Stock Has More Upside?
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Key Takeaways
SHOP stock is up 46.9% YTD vs. MELI's 20.5%, reflecting stronger earnings visibility and investor confidence.
Shopify benefits from global merchant growth, expanding AI tools and disciplined cost execution.
MercadoLibre faces rising costs, credit risk and fierce competition across key Latin American markets.
MercadoLibre (MELI - Free Report) and Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) have both emerged as digital commerce powerhouses. Over time, each has evolved far beyond its original model into a full-fledged ecosystem — MELI blending marketplace, fintech and logistics across Latin America and SHOP integrating global commerce infrastructure, payments and merchant services. Both are doubling down on AI-powered tools, payment innovation and advertising capabilities, while deepening their appeal among enterprise clients alongside small and mid-sized merchants.
Despite these similarities, their investment narratives diverge sharply. MercadoLibre runs a tightly controlled marketplace embedded in emerging markets, while Shopify delivers enabling infrastructure that powers merchants worldwide. The difference lies not in ambition but in structure and that distinction could shape where investors find the next phase of growth. Let’s delve deep and closely compare the two stocks to determine which one is the better investment now.
The Case for MELI
MELI’s growth engine remains strong but increasingly costly. Its commerce and fintech ecosystems continue to expand across Latin America, yet profitability is under strain as the cost of sustaining growth rises. The company’s integrated model — marketplace, payments and logistics — drives engagement but locks profitability into a capital-intensive framework.
Competition in Brazil and Mexico is intensifying with Shopee, TikTok Shop and Amazon expanding aggressively. In early August, MELI reduced Brazil’s free-shipping threshold from BRL79 to BRL19 to defend market share, a move likely to boost near-term volumes but further compress margins. Marketing and fulfilment expenses remain elevated as the company prioritizes transaction growth over efficiency.
Mercado Pago’s lending portfolio, which exceeded $9 billion as of June 30, continues to expand rapidly, deepening exposure to credit and currency risk across key markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total payment volume is pegged at $71 billion, up 37% year over year, driven by digital payment adoption in Brazil and Mexico. Yet, growth is concentrated in high-risk consumer lending and credit cards, raising concerns about default sensitivity and provisioning costs.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter, 2025 EPS is pegged at $9.74 per share, rising 24.39% year over year but slipping 14 cents in the past 30 days. The lack of upward revisions highlights caution over margin recovery. With higher shipping subsidies, marketing spend and fintech credit exposure weighing on profitability, MercadoLibre’s near-term earnings visibility remains limited despite strong top-line momentum.
Shopify has evolved into a full-stack commerce platform powering millions of merchants globally. Its ecosystem spans online storefronts, payments, logistics, advertising, and AI-driven automation, positioning it as the operating backbone for both small businesses and large enterprises. The company’s merchant network extends across 175 countries and new enterprise partnerships have accelerated adoption among leading retail brands, expanding Shopify’s presence beyond its traditional mid-market base.
Shop Pay and Shopify Payments remain key growth engines. Rising penetration across online and in-person transactions continues to enhance monetisation and strengthen merchant retention. The rollout of AI features such as Sidekick, Checkout Kit and AI Store Builder is improving conversion rates and operational efficiency, driving incremental subscription demand. Meanwhile, Shopify’s logistics partnerships and app integrations are expanding merchant reach and deepening platform stickiness.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify’s third-quarter total revenue is pegged at $2.96 billion, indicating 28.8% year-over-year growth, driven by balanced expansion across merchant and subscription solutions. The consensus mark for gross merchandise volume is pegged at $88.2 billion, reflecting a 27% year-over-year increase, suggesting continued platform engagement and steady subscription growth across higher-value merchant tiers.
Building on this operational strength, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHOP’s 2025 EPS is pegged at $1.45 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and implying 11.54% year-over-year growth. This steady earnings trajectory reflects disciplined cost execution, expanding payments penetration and growing monetisation of AI-driven commerce infrastructure, positioning Shopify for sustained operating leverage and long-term value creation.
In the year-to-date (YTD) period, SHOP shares have rallied 46.9%, while MELI shares have increased 20.5%. Both have outperformed the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry’s appreciation of 6%. SHOP’s rally reflects investor confidence in its AI initiatives, enterprise traction and improving profitability, whereas MELI’s limited gains highlight the drag from rising costs, credit risk, and intensifying regional competition.
SHOP Outperforms MELI, Industry in YTD
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation-wise, both MELI and SHOP’s shares appear stretched as suggested by a Value Score of D and F, respectively. MELI trades at 3.08x forward 12-month Price/Sales, a premium that looks difficult to sustain given margin pressure, rising credit exposure and limited earnings visibility. SHOP trades at 15.46x, a richer multiple that appears more justified by its expanding operating leverage, strong cash generation and consistent execution on AI-driven growth initiatives.
MELI vs. SHOP- Price/Sales (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Both MercadoLibre and Shopify remain leading players in digital commerce, yet their near-term outlooks diverge. MELI’s growth is increasingly constrained by rising costs, credit exposure and competitive pressure across Latin America, limiting earnings momentum despite steady revenue expansion. Shopify, in contrast, is executing from a position of strength, combining scalable economics, disciplined cost control and growing AI monetisation that is translating into improving profitability.
With stronger execution, scalable economics, and healthier investor sentiment reflected in recent performance, Shopify, which holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), makes for the preferred pick over MercadoLibre, which carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Investors may consider buying Shopify at current levels, while adopting a cautious stance on MercadoLibre until margin stability and earnings visibility improve.
Image: Shutterstock
MercadoLibre vs. Shopify: Which Digital Commerce Stock Has More Upside?
Key Takeaways
MercadoLibre (MELI - Free Report) and Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) have both emerged as digital commerce powerhouses. Over time, each has evolved far beyond its original model into a full-fledged ecosystem — MELI blending marketplace, fintech and logistics across Latin America and SHOP integrating global commerce infrastructure, payments and merchant services. Both are doubling down on AI-powered tools, payment innovation and advertising capabilities, while deepening their appeal among enterprise clients alongside small and mid-sized merchants.
Despite these similarities, their investment narratives diverge sharply. MercadoLibre runs a tightly controlled marketplace embedded in emerging markets, while Shopify delivers enabling infrastructure that powers merchants worldwide. The difference lies not in ambition but in structure and that distinction could shape where investors find the next phase of growth. Let’s delve deep and closely compare the two stocks to determine which one is the better investment now.
The Case for MELI
MELI’s growth engine remains strong but increasingly costly. Its commerce and fintech ecosystems continue to expand across Latin America, yet profitability is under strain as the cost of sustaining growth rises. The company’s integrated model — marketplace, payments and logistics — drives engagement but locks profitability into a capital-intensive framework.
Competition in Brazil and Mexico is intensifying with Shopee, TikTok Shop and Amazon expanding aggressively. In early August, MELI reduced Brazil’s free-shipping threshold from BRL79 to BRL19 to defend market share, a move likely to boost near-term volumes but further compress margins. Marketing and fulfilment expenses remain elevated as the company prioritizes transaction growth over efficiency.
Mercado Pago’s lending portfolio, which exceeded $9 billion as of June 30, continues to expand rapidly, deepening exposure to credit and currency risk across key markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total payment volume is pegged at $71 billion, up 37% year over year, driven by digital payment adoption in Brazil and Mexico. Yet, growth is concentrated in high-risk consumer lending and credit cards, raising concerns about default sensitivity and provisioning costs.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter, 2025 EPS is pegged at $9.74 per share, rising 24.39% year over year but slipping 14 cents in the past 30 days. The lack of upward revisions highlights caution over margin recovery. With higher shipping subsidies, marketing spend and fintech credit exposure weighing on profitability, MercadoLibre’s near-term earnings visibility remains limited despite strong top-line momentum.
MercadoLibre, Inc. Price and Consensus
MercadoLibre, Inc. price-consensus-chart | MercadoLibre, Inc. Quote
The Case for SHOP
Shopify has evolved into a full-stack commerce platform powering millions of merchants globally. Its ecosystem spans online storefronts, payments, logistics, advertising, and AI-driven automation, positioning it as the operating backbone for both small businesses and large enterprises. The company’s merchant network extends across 175 countries and new enterprise partnerships have accelerated adoption among leading retail brands, expanding Shopify’s presence beyond its traditional mid-market base.
Shop Pay and Shopify Payments remain key growth engines. Rising penetration across online and in-person transactions continues to enhance monetisation and strengthen merchant retention. The rollout of AI features such as Sidekick, Checkout Kit and AI Store Builder is improving conversion rates and operational efficiency, driving incremental subscription demand. Meanwhile, Shopify’s logistics partnerships and app integrations are expanding merchant reach and deepening platform stickiness.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify’s third-quarter total revenue is pegged at $2.96 billion, indicating 28.8% year-over-year growth, driven by balanced expansion across merchant and subscription solutions. The consensus mark for gross merchandise volume is pegged at $88.2 billion, reflecting a 27% year-over-year increase, suggesting continued platform engagement and steady subscription growth across higher-value merchant tiers.
Building on this operational strength, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHOP’s 2025 EPS is pegged at $1.45 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and implying 11.54% year-over-year growth. This steady earnings trajectory reflects disciplined cost execution, expanding payments penetration and growing monetisation of AI-driven commerce infrastructure, positioning Shopify for sustained operating leverage and long-term value creation.
Shopify Inc. Price and Consensus
Shopify Inc. price-consensus-chart | Shopify Inc. Quote
Price Performance and Valuation of MELI and SHOP
In the year-to-date (YTD) period, SHOP shares have rallied 46.9%, while MELI shares have increased 20.5%. Both have outperformed the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry’s appreciation of 6%. SHOP’s rally reflects investor confidence in its AI initiatives, enterprise traction and improving profitability, whereas MELI’s limited gains highlight the drag from rising costs, credit risk, and intensifying regional competition.
SHOP Outperforms MELI, Industry in YTD
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation-wise, both MELI and SHOP’s shares appear stretched as suggested by a Value Score of D and F, respectively. MELI trades at 3.08x forward 12-month Price/Sales, a premium that looks difficult to sustain given margin pressure, rising credit exposure and limited earnings visibility. SHOP trades at 15.46x, a richer multiple that appears more justified by its expanding operating leverage, strong cash generation and consistent execution on AI-driven growth initiatives.
MELI vs. SHOP- Price/Sales (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Both MercadoLibre and Shopify remain leading players in digital commerce, yet their near-term outlooks diverge. MELI’s growth is increasingly constrained by rising costs, credit exposure and competitive pressure across Latin America, limiting earnings momentum despite steady revenue expansion. Shopify, in contrast, is executing from a position of strength, combining scalable economics, disciplined cost control and growing AI monetisation that is translating into improving profitability.
With stronger execution, scalable economics, and healthier investor sentiment reflected in recent performance, Shopify, which holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), makes for the preferred pick over MercadoLibre, which carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Investors may consider buying Shopify at current levels, while adopting a cautious stance on MercadoLibre until margin stability and earnings visibility improve.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.