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VLO Poised to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What You Need to Know

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Key Takeaways

  • VLO will report Q3 2025 results on Oct. 23, with EPS estimates up 158% from last year.
  • Lower crude prices likely aided VLO's margins as refining costs declined during the quarter.
  • VLO has an Earnings ESP of -4.85% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 23, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, its adjusted earnings of $2.28 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73, primarily attributed to an increase in refining margins per barrel of throughput and lower total cost of sales.

Earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, while beating thrice, delivering an average surprise of roughly 130%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Valero Energy Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Valero Energy Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Valero Energy Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Valero Energy Corporation Quote

Estimate Trend for VLO

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $2.94 has seen no revisions in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 158% jump from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $29.7 billion indicates a 9.6% decrease from the year-ago recorded figure.

Factors to Consider for VLO

Per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the average spot prices for Cushing, OK, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July, August and September were $68.39, $64.86 and $63.96 per barrel, respectively. However, the pricing environment was more favorable in the prior-year months, with average prices of $81.80, $76.68 and $70.24 per barrel, respectively.

Lower oil prices are likely to have aided the bottom line of VLO, the premier oil refiner in the United States. This is because, crude is being used as raw materials by refiners for producing final petroleum products like gasoline. 

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for VLO this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Valero has an Earnings ESP of -4.85%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

BP (BP - Free Report) is an integrated energy company. It currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.24% and a Zacks Rank #3. 

It is scheduled to release third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share.

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Antero Midstream is set to release third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings is pegged at 24 cents per share, indicating a 14.3% increase from the prior-year reported figure.

Eni SpA (E - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.83% and a Zacks Rank #3.

It is set to release third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 24. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for E’s earnings is pegged at 73 cents per share, which indicates a decrease of 15.1% from the prior-year reported figure.

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