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Here's How Procter & Gamble Looks Ahead of Q1 Earnings Release

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Key Takeaways

  • Procter & Gamble's strong brand execution supports consistent organic sales growth.
  • PG's fiscal Q1 model projects 1.9% organic sales growth, led by Health Care and Grooming gains.
  • Higher commodity costs, tariffs and China market pressures may have trimmed PG's margins.

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG - Free Report) , also known as P&G, is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Oct. 24, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year sales growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $22.15 billion, indicating a 1.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for PG’s earnings is pegged at $1.90 per share, indicating a 1.6% drop from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark for earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

PG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.5% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.

PG’s Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Procter & Gamble this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Procter & Gamble has an Earnings ESP of -0.30% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Key Trends to Watch Ahead of PG's Q1 Earnings

Procter & Gamble continues to strengthen its global market leadership through its robust brand portfolio and effective execution, driving consistent organic sales growth. PG has been actively implementing cost-saving initiatives and productivity enhancements to strengthen margins and reinforce its competitive edge.  The company’s focus on core categories and innovation continues to fuel performance, likely aiding organic sales in the fiscal first quarter.

Our model predicts year-over-year organic sales growth of 3.2% for PG in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Our model estimates organic sales growth of 3% each for the Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, and Fabric & Home Care segments. We expect organic sales for the Baby, Feminine & Family Care segment to rise 4% .

However, Procter & Gamble has been navigating several challenges, including market pressures in Greater China, geopolitical tensions and currency volatility. The company continues to face significant headwinds from elevated commodity costs, which are likely to have pressured gross margins in first-quarter fiscal 2026. While the company has made strong progress on productivity and cost-saving initiatives, inflation in raw materials, packaging, freight and labor is likely to have been a concern. In addition, tariff impacts stemming from raw and packaging materials and certain finished products sourced from China have been acting as deterrents. Such factors are expected to weigh on PG’s earnings results for the to-be-reported quarter.

We expect PG's core gross margin for the fiscal first quarter to have been influenced by elevated commodity costs and ongoing market conditions, including a volatile consumer and geopolitical landscape, offset by productivity savings. Our model predicts a year-over-year core gross margin decline of 50 bps for the fiscal first quarter. We expect the core operating margin to fall by 80 bps in the same quarter.

Price Performance & Valuation

PG shares have lost 9.4% in the past six months compared with the industry’s drop of 11.6%. The stock has lagged the Zacks Consumer Staples sector’s decline of 5.2% and the S&P 500’s 28% growth.

From the valuation standpoint, Procter & Gamble is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 22.37X, exceeding the industry’s average of 18.09X but below the S&P 500’s average of 23.31X. PG’s valuation appears pricey relative to the industry.

Given the premium valuation, investors may face significant risks if the company's future performance does not meet expectations. The consumer goods market is becoming increasingly competitive, and Procter & Gamble’s innovation and market expansion may not suffice to drive significant growth. Macroeconomic challenges and heightened competition may impede the company's ability to sustain its current growth trajectory.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Estee Lauder (EL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a jump in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.38 billion, which suggests a rise of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly earnings per share stands at 16 cents, which reflects an increase of 14.3% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate has gone up a couple of cents in the past seven days. EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 71.5%, on average.

Corteva (CTVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.49 billion, which implies a 7% increase from the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s bottom line has been stable in the past 30 days at a loss of 49 cents per share, which is in line with the year-ago period. CTVA has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.4%, on average.

Altria Group (MO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register an increase in its bottom line when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MO’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.32 billion, which indicates a dip of 0.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for Altria Group’s quarterly earnings has been stable in the past 30 days at $1.44 per share. The estimate indicates growth of 4.4% from the year-ago quarter. MO delivered an earnings surprise of 3.3% in the trailing four quarters, on average.

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