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BigBear.ai vs. C3.ai: Which AI Stock Is the Smarter Buy Right Now?
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Key Takeaways
BigBear.ai is leveraging OB3-driven defense contracts and a $390.8M cash position for future growth.
C3.ai's Q1 revenue fell 19% as sales restructuring and leadership changes disrupted execution.
BBAI stock is up 48.5% YTD, while AI has dropped 49% amid investor uncertainty and execution risk.
The artificial intelligence industry is expanding rapidly, but not all AI companies are delivering the same growth or stability. Two names attracting investor attention—BigBear.ai (BBAI - Free Report) and C3.ai (AI - Free Report) —represent contrasting stories of scale and execution. Both firms are at the forefront of enterprise and defense-focused AI, but they diverge sharply in financial performance, market positioning and growth momentum.
BigBear.ai is emerging as a mission-driven AI integrator for defense, logistics and national security clients. Its momentum has accelerated following U.S. and allied government initiatives like the One Big Beautiful Bill (“OB3”), which earmarks massive funding for AI-enabled defense and homeland security. Meanwhile, C3.ai, a pioneer in enterprise AI platforms, is navigating a difficult transition following leadership changes and sales restructuring that disrupted recent results.
Which stock offers the smarter near-term opportunity? Let’s dive deep and compare the fundamentals.
The Case for BigBear.ai Stock
BigBear.ai’s second-quarter 2025 report highlighted a turning point for the company. Despite a revenue decline of 18% year over year to $32.5 million, the firm fortified its balance sheet to a record $390.8 million in cash, providing strategic flexibility for acquisitions and growth investments. CEO Kevin McAleenan emphasized how OB3’s $170 billion allocation to Homeland Security and $150 billion to the Department of Defense positions BigBear.ai to capture contracts in AI autonomy, logistics, and border technology.
The company’s ConductorOS autonomy platform for the Department of Defense and Shipyard AI for naval manufacturing are early examples of its defense-grade capabilities. Additionally, BigBear.ai’s biometric “veriScan” platform has been deployed at more than 25 airports, establishing leadership in AI-powered border processing.
While second-quarter results reflected disruptions in U.S. Army contracts, management reaffirmed its commitment to broadening its federal pipeline and expanding globally through partnerships in the UAE and Panama. With a $380 million backlog and expectations for $125–$140 million in 2025 revenue, BigBear.ai appears positioned for reacceleration as funding from OB3 begins to flow through late 2025 and beyond (read more: Is BigBear.ai Stock a Buy After 22% Surge on Tsecond Deal?).
However, the company remains unprofitable, posting a net loss of $228.6 million in the second quarter due to one-time non-cash charges and adjusted EBITDA of negative $8.5 million, indicating that profitability is still distant. Yet, the improving balance sheet and international expansion strategy give it substantial optionality to scale.
The Case for C3.ai Stock
C3.ai’s fiscal first-quarter 2026 told a different story—one of execution challenges despite a vast addressable market. The company’s revenue fell 19% year over year to $70.3 million, missing estimates, while its non-GAAP net loss widened to $49.8 million or 37 cents per share. Founder Tom Siebel called the results “completely unacceptable,” attributing the weakness to confusion from a global sales and services reorganization and his own health-related absence from sales oversight.
Nevertheless, there were bright spots. Subscription revenue contributed 86% of the total, and C3.ai secured 46 agreements, including 28 initial production deployments with industry leaders like Nucor, Koch, Qemetica, HII, and the U.S. Army. The company also launched its C3 AI Strategic Integrator Program, which allows partners to license and commercialize applications on its Agentic AI Platform.
C3.ai’s technology pipeline remains robust, anchored by its Generative AI Suite, which delivered measurable productivity gains—like an 85% reduction in procurement contract review time and a 20% boost in employee productivity among enterprise users. Additionally, with $711.9 million in cash, C3.ai maintains a stronger liquidity cushion than most peers, giving it a long runway for restructuring and product reinvestment.
Still, margin compression is a concern. The non-GAAP gross margin fell to 52% from 65% a year earlier, due to higher early-stage deployment costs. Moreover, C3.ai withdrew its fiscal 2026 guidance, opting only to forecast fiscal second-quarter revenue of $72–$80 million, reflecting management caution amid restructuring.
Valuation Comparison: BBAI vs AI
Valuation highlights the divergence between growth optimism and operational delivery. BigBear.ai currently trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 17.89X, while C3.ai trades at 7.63X, both above the Zacks Computer and Technology sector average of 6.94X.
BigBear.ai’s higher multiple reflects investor enthusiasm over potential government contract inflows and its defense-heavy AI focus. However, the premium suggests that much of this optimism is already priced in, especially given its lack of profitability. By contrast, C3.ai’s lower multiple, despite a larger revenue base and enterprise partnerships, points to a market discount driven by execution uncertainty and declining growth.
BBAI & AI Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stock Performance: Momentum vs. Recovery
Year-to-date (YTD), BigBear.ai shares have surged 48.5%, outperforming both the broader technology sector and the S&P 500 index. The rally reflects growing investor confidence in its “agentic AI for defense” narrative and its exposure to national security spending.
Meanwhile, C3.ai stock has plunged 49% YTD, underperforming the sector and broader market. Investor sentiment turned sour following repeated execution misses and restructuring-driven volatility. The company’s transition to a new CEO, Stephen Ehikian, could mark a stabilizing phase, but the near-term road to reacceleration remains uncertain.
BBAI & AI Share Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BBAI & AI Stocks’ Consensus Estimate Trends
According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, BigBear.ai is expected to report a loss of $1.10 per share in 2025, unchanged over the past 60 days—the same as last year. For 2026, the loss is projected to narrow significantly to 32 cents per share, while revenues are forecasted to decline 16.2% in 2025 but grow 24.3% in 2026 as new contracts scale up.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For C3.ai, analyst sentiment has turned slightly more cautious. The fiscal 2026 EPS estimate widened to a loss of $1.33 from 76 cents in the past 60 days, indicating a deeper expected loss than the 41 cents per-share loss recorded in fiscal 2025. Looking further ahead, fiscal 2027 EPS is projected at a loss of $1.02, while revenues are expected to decline sharply (down 224.4%) in fiscal 2026 before rebounding 23.7% in fiscal 2027.
These revisions highlight that while BigBear.ai’s losses are stabilizing, C3.ai’s profitability timeline may have stretched further amid restructuring and leadership transition.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Bottom Line: Which AI Stock Has More Upside Potential?
Both BigBear.ai and C3.ai are deeply embedded in the U.S. AI infrastructure buildout, but they are at different inflection points. BigBear.ai stands out for its near-term exposure to policy-driven catalysts like OB3 funding, its record cash balance and expanding defense footprint. Its valuation is steep, but so is its strategic leverage to national and global security AI deployments.
C3.ai, by contrast, remains a high-potential turnaround story. The company’s diversified enterprise partnerships, growing generative AI deployments and leadership transition offer reasons for optimism—but the immediate fundamentals, from revenue contraction to margin erosion, signal that recovery will take time.
Given current momentum, liquidity position and direct exposure to imminent government AI spending, BigBear.ai appears to have more upside potential right now, particularly for investors with higher risk tolerance seeking upside from defense-driven AI adoption. C3.ai, while fundamentally stronger in product depth, may remain a “wait-and-see” play until its restructuring begins translating into tangible revenue recovery.
Image: Bigstock
BigBear.ai vs. C3.ai: Which AI Stock Is the Smarter Buy Right Now?
Key Takeaways
The artificial intelligence industry is expanding rapidly, but not all AI companies are delivering the same growth or stability. Two names attracting investor attention—BigBear.ai (BBAI - Free Report) and C3.ai (AI - Free Report) —represent contrasting stories of scale and execution. Both firms are at the forefront of enterprise and defense-focused AI, but they diverge sharply in financial performance, market positioning and growth momentum.
BigBear.ai is emerging as a mission-driven AI integrator for defense, logistics and national security clients. Its momentum has accelerated following U.S. and allied government initiatives like the One Big Beautiful Bill (“OB3”), which earmarks massive funding for AI-enabled defense and homeland security. Meanwhile, C3.ai, a pioneer in enterprise AI platforms, is navigating a difficult transition following leadership changes and sales restructuring that disrupted recent results.
Which stock offers the smarter near-term opportunity? Let’s dive deep and compare the fundamentals.
The Case for BigBear.ai Stock
BigBear.ai’s second-quarter 2025 report highlighted a turning point for the company. Despite a revenue decline of 18% year over year to $32.5 million, the firm fortified its balance sheet to a record $390.8 million in cash, providing strategic flexibility for acquisitions and growth investments. CEO Kevin McAleenan emphasized how OB3’s $170 billion allocation to Homeland Security and $150 billion to the Department of Defense positions BigBear.ai to capture contracts in AI autonomy, logistics, and border technology.
The company’s ConductorOS autonomy platform for the Department of Defense and Shipyard AI for naval manufacturing are early examples of its defense-grade capabilities. Additionally, BigBear.ai’s biometric “veriScan” platform has been deployed at more than 25 airports, establishing leadership in AI-powered border processing.
While second-quarter results reflected disruptions in U.S. Army contracts, management reaffirmed its commitment to broadening its federal pipeline and expanding globally through partnerships in the UAE and Panama. With a $380 million backlog and expectations for $125–$140 million in 2025 revenue, BigBear.ai appears positioned for reacceleration as funding from OB3 begins to flow through late 2025 and beyond (read more: Is BigBear.ai Stock a Buy After 22% Surge on Tsecond Deal?).
However, the company remains unprofitable, posting a net loss of $228.6 million in the second quarter due to one-time non-cash charges and adjusted EBITDA of negative $8.5 million, indicating that profitability is still distant. Yet, the improving balance sheet and international expansion strategy give it substantial optionality to scale.
The Case for C3.ai Stock
C3.ai’s fiscal first-quarter 2026 told a different story—one of execution challenges despite a vast addressable market. The company’s revenue fell 19% year over year to $70.3 million, missing estimates, while its non-GAAP net loss widened to $49.8 million or 37 cents per share. Founder Tom Siebel called the results “completely unacceptable,” attributing the weakness to confusion from a global sales and services reorganization and his own health-related absence from sales oversight.
Nevertheless, there were bright spots. Subscription revenue contributed 86% of the total, and C3.ai secured 46 agreements, including 28 initial production deployments with industry leaders like Nucor, Koch, Qemetica, HII, and the U.S. Army. The company also launched its C3 AI Strategic Integrator Program, which allows partners to license and commercialize applications on its Agentic AI Platform.
C3.ai’s technology pipeline remains robust, anchored by its Generative AI Suite, which delivered measurable productivity gains—like an 85% reduction in procurement contract review time and a 20% boost in employee productivity among enterprise users. Additionally, with $711.9 million in cash, C3.ai maintains a stronger liquidity cushion than most peers, giving it a long runway for restructuring and product reinvestment.
Still, margin compression is a concern. The non-GAAP gross margin fell to 52% from 65% a year earlier, due to higher early-stage deployment costs. Moreover, C3.ai withdrew its fiscal 2026 guidance, opting only to forecast fiscal second-quarter revenue of $72–$80 million, reflecting management caution amid restructuring.
Valuation Comparison: BBAI vs AI
Valuation highlights the divergence between growth optimism and operational delivery. BigBear.ai currently trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 17.89X, while C3.ai trades at 7.63X, both above the Zacks Computer and Technology sector average of 6.94X.
BigBear.ai’s higher multiple reflects investor enthusiasm over potential government contract inflows and its defense-heavy AI focus. However, the premium suggests that much of this optimism is already priced in, especially given its lack of profitability. By contrast, C3.ai’s lower multiple, despite a larger revenue base and enterprise partnerships, points to a market discount driven by execution uncertainty and declining growth.
BBAI & AI Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stock Performance: Momentum vs. Recovery
Year-to-date (YTD), BigBear.ai shares have surged 48.5%, outperforming both the broader technology sector and the S&P 500 index. The rally reflects growing investor confidence in its “agentic AI for defense” narrative and its exposure to national security spending.
Meanwhile, C3.ai stock has plunged 49% YTD, underperforming the sector and broader market. Investor sentiment turned sour following repeated execution misses and restructuring-driven volatility. The company’s transition to a new CEO, Stephen Ehikian, could mark a stabilizing phase, but the near-term road to reacceleration remains uncertain.
BBAI & AI Share Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BBAI & AI Stocks’ Consensus Estimate Trends
According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, BigBear.ai is expected to report a loss of $1.10 per share in 2025, unchanged over the past 60 days—the same as last year. For 2026, the loss is projected to narrow significantly to 32 cents per share, while revenues are forecasted to decline 16.2% in 2025 but grow 24.3% in 2026 as new contracts scale up.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For C3.ai, analyst sentiment has turned slightly more cautious. The fiscal 2026 EPS estimate widened to a loss of $1.33 from 76 cents in the past 60 days, indicating a deeper expected loss than the 41 cents per-share loss recorded in fiscal 2025. Looking further ahead, fiscal 2027 EPS is projected at a loss of $1.02, while revenues are expected to decline sharply (down 224.4%) in fiscal 2026 before rebounding 23.7% in fiscal 2027.
These revisions highlight that while BigBear.ai’s losses are stabilizing, C3.ai’s profitability timeline may have stretched further amid restructuring and leadership transition.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Bottom Line: Which AI Stock Has More Upside Potential?
Both BigBear.ai and C3.ai are deeply embedded in the U.S. AI infrastructure buildout, but they are at different inflection points. BigBear.ai stands out for its near-term exposure to policy-driven catalysts like OB3 funding, its record cash balance and expanding defense footprint. Its valuation is steep, but so is its strategic leverage to national and global security AI deployments.
C3.ai, by contrast, remains a high-potential turnaround story. The company’s diversified enterprise partnerships, growing generative AI deployments and leadership transition offer reasons for optimism—but the immediate fundamentals, from revenue contraction to margin erosion, signal that recovery will take time.
Given current momentum, liquidity position and direct exposure to imminent government AI spending, BigBear.ai appears to have more upside potential right now, particularly for investors with higher risk tolerance seeking upside from defense-driven AI adoption. C3.ai, while fundamentally stronger in product depth, may remain a “wait-and-see” play until its restructuring begins translating into tangible revenue recovery.
Both stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), but BigBear.ai’s momentum and government tailwinds give it a tactical edge over C3.ai in the near term. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.