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Can CINF Sustain its Surprise Streak With Q3 Earnings Beat?
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Key Takeaways
Cincinnati Financial is projected to post Q3 revenues of $2.9B, up 11.3% year over year.
Earnings per share are expected at $2.01, indicating a 41.6% year-over-year increase.
Higher premiums, investment income and prudent underwriting may support Q3 profitability.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 27, after the closing bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating 11.3% growth from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $2.01 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s third-quarter earnings has moved north by 4.7% in the past seven days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 41.6%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for CINF
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CINF this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: CINF has an Earnings ESP of +4.49%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.42 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37.
Premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from increased exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business and improved premiums from Cincinnati Re. We expect earned premiums to be $2.5 billion, up 10.4% from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.6 billion.
Rate increases, a higher level of insured exposures, higher policy retention rates and changes in policy deductibles or mix of business are expected to have favored performance at Personal Lines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Personal Lines revenues is pegged at $816 million.
Better agency renewal and new business written premiums due to higher renewal pricing are likely to have aided Excess and Surplus lines premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excess and Surplus lines revenues is pegged at $176.4 million.
Net investment income is likely to have benefited from solid cash flow from operating activities and higher bond yields. We expect investment income to be $291.6 million, up 13% from the year-ago reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $314 million.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders' benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, interest expense, and other operating expenses. We expect total expenses to rise 10.9% to $2.5 billion.
Prudent underwriting, coupled with a benign catastrophe environment, is likely to have aided underwriting profitability. We estimate the combined ratio to be 98.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are three P&C insurance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.14, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.74%
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.73, indicating a year-over-year increase of 72.1%.
ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +18.72% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.70, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.4%.
BRK.B’s earnings beat estimates in one of the last four reported quarters and missed in three.
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Can CINF Sustain its Surprise Streak With Q3 Earnings Beat?
Key Takeaways
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 27, after the closing bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating 11.3% growth from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $2.01 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s third-quarter earnings has moved north by 4.7% in the past seven days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 41.6%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for CINF
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CINF this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: CINF has an Earnings ESP of +4.49%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.42 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37.
Zacks Rank: CINF carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape CINF’s Q3 Results
Premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from increased exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business and improved premiums from Cincinnati Re. We expect earned premiums to be $2.5 billion, up 10.4% from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.6 billion.
Rate increases, a higher level of insured exposures, higher policy retention rates and changes in policy deductibles or mix of business are expected to have favored performance at Personal Lines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Personal Lines revenues is pegged at $816 million.
Better agency renewal and new business written premiums due to higher renewal pricing are likely to have aided Excess and Surplus lines premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excess and Surplus lines revenues is pegged at $176.4 million.
Net investment income is likely to have benefited from solid cash flow from operating activities and higher bond yields. We expect investment income to be $291.6 million, up 13% from the year-ago reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $314 million.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders' benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, interest expense, and other operating expenses. We expect total expenses to rise 10.9% to $2.5 billion.
Prudent underwriting, coupled with a benign catastrophe environment, is likely to have aided underwriting profitability. We estimate the combined ratio to be 98.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are three P&C insurance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.14, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.74%
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.73, indicating a year-over-year increase of 72.1%.
ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +18.72% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.70, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.4%.
BRK.B’s earnings beat estimates in one of the last four reported quarters and missed in three.