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Will Brown & Brown Pull Off a Surprise This Earnings Season?

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Key Takeaways

  • Core commissions likely rose on new and renewal business, acquisitions, and FX translation.
  • Profit-sharing contingent commissions expected to reach $53 million on improved underwriting.
  • Net investment income projected at $36.4 million, boosted by higher interest rates and cash.

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO - Free Report) is expected to register an improvement in the top line but a decline in its bottom line when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 27, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRO’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.51 billion, indicating 27% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 90 cents per share. The estimate suggests a year-over-year decrease of 1.1%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for BRO

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Brown & Brown this time. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Brown & Brown has an Earnings ESP of +1.30% at present. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 91 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 90 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Brown & Brown, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Brown & Brown, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Brown & Brown, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Brown & Brown, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Brown & Brown currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Likely to Shape Q3 Results of BRO

Core commissions and fees are likely to have benefited from net new and renewal business, acquisitions, and an increase from the impact of Foreign Currency Translation. Our estimate was $1.3 billion.

Profit-sharing contingent commissions are likely to have increased owing to improved underwriting results and qualifying for certain profit-sharing contingent commissions that were not qualified for in the prior year and recent acquisitions. We expect profit-sharing contingent commissions to be $53 million in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Net investment income is expected to have benefited from higher average interest rates and cash balances. We expect net investment income to be $36.4 million in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $32.9 million.

Net new business written during the preceding 12 months and growth on renewals of existing customers are likely to have aided organic revenues in the Retail segment. We expect organic revenues to be $754.1 million in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Net new business and exposure unit increases are expected to have aided organic revenues in the Wholesale Brokerage segment. We expect organic revenues to be $200.1 million in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Expenses are expected to have increased because of higher employee compensation and benefits, other operating expenses, amortization, depreciation and interest expenses. We estimate the metric to be $1.2 billion.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.73% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.97 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.3%. 
MMC’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Aon plc. (AON - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.89 per share, implying an increase of 6.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

AON’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.14, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.5%. 

ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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