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Crocs' Q3 Earnings Coming Up: What Surprise Awaits Investors?

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Key Takeaways

  • Crocs' HEYDUDE brand struggles with weak demand, tariffs and wholesale channel pressures.
  • The company anticipates a 911% sales decline and lower operating margins from tariff impacts.
  • Strong DTC growth, clogs, sandals and Jibbitz demand continue to support Crocs' performance.

Crocs, Inc. (CROX - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $965.1 million, indicating a drop of 9.1% from the prior-year figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings per share has dipped 0.4% in the past seven days to $2.37. The estimate indicates a decline of 34.2% from the year-ago period’s number. 

The Broomfield, CO-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12.5%, on average. In the last reported quarter, its bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.5%.

Key Factors to Note Ahead of CROX’s Results

Crocs has been witnessing persistent softness in its HEYDUDE brand, which, coupled with a tough macroeconomic environment, is likely to have negatively impacted sales. Crocs’ HEYDUDE brand continues to face headwinds, with softness due to cautious U.S. consumer, elevated tariffs and wholesale channel pressures. The brand is navigating a prolonged reset in North America, marked by incremental inventory returns, wholesale cleanups and a pullback in performance marketing to improve profitability. Elevated supply-chain costs from tariffs remain a concern. Management had estimated a significant impact that will persist into the second half and beyond. 

Despite growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues, the overall brand momentum appears challenged, which could weigh on the company's consolidated performance. On its last earnings call, Crocs had anticipated a modest sales decline of 9-11%, reflecting ongoing marketplace cleanups, reduced wholesale volumes and higher input costs. 

In addition, incremental investments in talent, marketing and DTC expansion, coupled with a higher SG&A expense rate, are further pressuring operating leverage. The pullback in discounting for Crocs and incremental wholesale inventory cleanups for HEYDUDE have also been weighing on near-term margins. For the third quarter, the company had expected an adjusted operating margin of 18-19%, reflecting an anticipated negative impact of about 170 basis points from announced and pending tariffs. 

However, gains from consumer demand and the continued strength of its core product categories, including sandals, have been encouraging. The company has consistently performed well in these segments, supported by effective pricing strategies and strong brand appeal. Its personalization engine, particularly the Jibbitz business, has shown steady growth. Additionally, Crocs' solid performance in its DTC channel and wholesale channels is expected to have further offered a boost. The consensus mark for the company’s DTC revenues is currently pegged at $507 million for the third quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for Crocs

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Crocs this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Crocs currently has an Earnings ESP of -3.12% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Crocs, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Crocs, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Crocs, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Crocs, Inc. Quote

CROX’s Valuation Picture

From a valuation perspective, Crocs offers an attractive opportunity, trading at a discount relative to the historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 7.26x, which is below the five-year high of 26.17x and the Textile - Apparel industry’s average of 16.95x, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

The recent market movements show that Crocs’ shares have lost 13.9% in the past six months compared with the industry's 5.6% drop.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Carnival Corp. (CCL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.45% and a Zacks Rank of 1. CCL is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.36 billion, indicating a 7.1% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for CCL’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 24 cents per share, implying a 71.4% surge from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark has risen 20% in the past 30 days.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank of 2. RL is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.90 billion, indicating 9.9% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for Ralph Lauren’s fiscal second-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.44 a share, implying 35.4% growth from the year-earlier quarter. The consensus mark has moved up 1.5% in the past 30 days.

Hanesbrands (HBI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3. HBI is likely to register a top-line decline when it reports third-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $900.6 million, indicating a 3.9% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for Hanesbrands’ third-quarter earnings is pegged at 16 cents a share, implying 6.7% growth from the year-earlier quarter. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days.

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