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VST vs. NRG: Which Utility Stock Shines Brighter for Your Portfolio?

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Key Takeaways

  • Vistra and NRG benefit from clean energy incentives and rising electricity demand.
  • NRG projects 2025-2026 earnings growth of 22.74% and 17.09%, outpacing Vistra's forecast.
  • NRG offers a 1.03% dividend yield and a lower P/E valuation versus Vistra's premium pricing.

The companies operating in the Zacks Electric–Power industry stand to benefit from the nation’s accelerating clean energy transition and robust government support. Growing electricity demand, fueled by the expansion of electric vehicles, AI-powered data centers, digital infrastructure, the reshoring of some industries and electrified heating, continues to drive sector growth. Legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) offers tax credits and grants that reduce investment risk and improve project returns in renewable energy and storage. These supportive policies, aligned with national decarbonization objectives, create a strong foundation for sustainable, long-term growth across the industry.

Two prominent operators, Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) and NRG Energy (NRG - Free Report) are key beneficiaries of the IRA, which offers tax incentives for renewable energy, nuclear generation and energy storage. The two leading U.S. independent power producers feature diversified energy portfolios that include natural gas, nuclear and renewable assets. Both companies are actively expanding their generation capacities to address the growing electricity demand fueled by data centers and AI-driven computing.

Vistra offers a compelling investment opportunity given its strong strategic position within the rapidly evolving U.S. energy market. The company operates a well-diversified portfolio encompassing natural gas, nuclear, solar and battery storage assets with a total capacity of 40.65 gigawatts (“GW”). Vistra’s acquisition of Energy Harbor has notably expanded its nuclear footprint, reinforcing the ability to meet the growing demand for reliable, low-carbon electricity.

NRG Energy also stands out as an attractive investment option, supported by its solid financial performance and forward-looking strategy to capitalize on shifting energy dynamics. The company is well equipped to address rising electricity demand from data centers and AI applications. NRG Energy’s acquisition of 18 natural gas power plants from LS Power will effectively double its generation capacity to 25 GW, enhancing the capability to deliver dependable power across nine states. With its focus on growth, stability and sustainability, NRG is well placed to generate long-term value for investors in the dynamic energy sector.

Both stocks mentioned above are the key operators in the utility space. Let us dive deeper and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which is a better investment option for investors.

VST & NRG’s Earnings Growth Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra’s earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 2.86% for 2025 and growth of 24.9% for 2026. Long-term (three to five years) earnings growth per share is pegged at 10.35%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NRG Energy’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 22.74% and 17.09%, respectively. 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NRG & VST’s Dividend Yield

Utility companies generally distribute dividends and increase shareholders’ value. Currently, the dividend yield for NRG Energy is 1.03%, while the same for Vistra is 0.45%. The dividend yields of both companies are lower than the S&P 500’s yield of 1.49%.

Return on Equity

Return on Equity (“ROE”) is an important measure of financial performance that indicates how efficiently a company converts shareholder equity into profits. It highlights management’s effectiveness in utilizing invested capital to grow earnings and enhance shareholder value.

VST’s current ROE is 108.41% compared with NRG’s 88.22%, both outperforming the industry’s 10.35%.

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Capital Expenditure Plans

Utility operations are capital-intensive in nature and the operators in the sector often borrow to fund their capital projects. So, the utilities have high debt levels in their balance sheet. Low interest rates act as a tailwind for the utilities. The interest rates have been lowered by the Fed by 125 basis points and more rate cuts are expected, which will benefit the utilities.
  
VST and NRG are investing systematically to strengthen their infrastructure to provide reliable service to the clients and have benefited from the reduction in interest rates.

Valuation

Vistra currently appears to trade at a premium compared with NRG Energy on a Price/Earnings Forward 12-month basis. (P/E- F12M).

VST and NRG are currently trading at 24.31X and 18.57X, respectively, compared with the industry’s 15.45X.

Price Performance

NRG Energy has gained 57.8% in the past six months compared with Vistra’s rise of 53.8% in the same time period.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Rounding Up

NRG and Vistra are among the leading U.S. energy providers, demonstrating strong commitments to clean energy development and playing pivotal roles in the nation’s transition toward a low-carbon economy. Backed by solid strategies and established market positions, both companies present compelling long-term growth opportunities for investors seeking exposure to the evolving energy sector.

NRG Energy is currently showing better earnings estimate revision, a higher dividend yield and a cheaper valuation compared with Vistra.

Despite both companies currently having a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), our pick is NRG Energy, considering the above-mentioned parameters.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) - free report >>

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